Pre-Combine Mock 2020

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

That's a little final there, dude. Questions...

--You SURE about that? What if the defense and the running game are better?

--Is Mitch winning a championship in 2020?

--With the available options, CAN they win a championship? If not, how do you think Pace should go about doing business? Or should he simply resign himself to failure? 

I like the odds of Mitch showing sufficient improvement to make us a SB contender far more than Dalton (who’s never won anything of consequence and is long past the point of potential upside) getting us there from the bullpen. We’re talking about the same guy who got benched for Ryan Finley for 3 games last year here. I’m not gonna go so far as to say I’m super high on Mitch going forward because I’m not, but buying on any backup QB we sign to lead us to the promised land in relief is complete fool’s gold. What happened in Tennessee last year is both incredibly uncommon and was also the culmination of multiple things we cannot provide to our backup QB (namely, a league leading power back and a top 5 offensive line, plus an OC committed to playing to his QB’s strengths over pushing scheme), but if that’s our contingency plan model then Mariota makes far more sense than Dalton anyway and he won’t cost a draft pick. 

Whoever our backup is in 2020 needs to be someone more qualified for actually playing football than Daniel, but that’s a pretty low bar. If our starting QB for 2021 isn’t going to be Mitch then IMO our 2021 starting QB is probably not gonna be a guy on the 2020 roster unless we draft our QB2. 

We don’t discuss it, but we need to consider what these FA QBs want too. Anyone signing here has to know that in an ideal world from the team’s perspective they never get to see the field. From the fans‘ perspective the best thing that could happen is Dalton never sees the field too. Even if we want Dalton, does he want the Bears? If he’s taking a 1-year deal at age 32 he’s going to want the job best presenting him with a shot at a multi-year starter deal in 2021 and beyond. That may be here but it may be in Tampa or Carolina or Indianapolis too depending on what happens in their respective QB situations. A year behind Mitch on the bench only further cements that a guy like Dalton is probably going to have a backup only role beyond 2020, and that may not appeal to a guy like him just yet. Maybe he’d prefer a similar situation behind Baker Mayfield in CLE (who was also terrible last year and could be needing a bounce back 2020 to keep his job too) in a division he already knows very well.

Goal 1 short of us signing Brady, Brees or Bridgewater is going to be best setting Mitch up for success. To that end, investing trade capital plus a higher salary to go with Dalton over, say, Case Keenum behind Mitch only serves to limit our ability to accomplish goal 1. IMO, Dalton isn’t any more likely to relief pitch us to the postseason than Mariota, Keenum or any of the other available FA options and because of that I don’t see the value being there in Dalton over Keenum or Mariota. 

[JAF-N72EX]

There is not a single QB in free agency who is good enough to put us over the top, that we can afford or have a realistic chance at. None!

Besides, Mitch is Pace's guy and this offense was built around him. So Pace/Nagy is going to ride or die with him and give him as many chances as they can. This means that whoever is brought in as competition (whether that is FA or a draft pick) is not even going to see any meaningful playing time until the season is practically over. So why spend the much-needed money on any below-average QB on the open market who is more than likely not even going to be called upon until the season is over?
Also, even if you believe a QB like Dalton is better than Mitch. How many more winning games do you think Dalton is worth vs Mitch? I know I personally wouldn't go any more than MAYBE two games AT BEST ---that's me trying to look at this rationally and not based on what I believe!

Okay, so he won't see the field until the season is over but he is worth 2 more wins than Mitch. What good does this do when the season is over? Other than hurt your team by placing them lower in the draft.

Seriously, what does this accomplish? You still end up with the same end game results. A season with no championship. Except now, you have wasted valuable money that could have been spent on other needs to help the starting QB next year and you more than likely put your team in a worse draft position because you started a below-average QB that you wasted big money on.

I'm also with @AZBearsFan regarding the sudden comparisons to Tannehill and the Titans as well. That team was an anomaly, not the norm. Let's see how they do next year but IMO they were a flash in a pan during a year where everything went right.

 

[abstract_thought]

From the postseason press conference:

Quote

"Do you have enough to go on to feel confident that Mitch will be your unquestioned No. 1 next season?"

"Yes."

"So the plan is for him to be your starter?"

"Yes."

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by abstract_thought

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

There is not a single QB in free agency who is good enough to put us over the top, that we can afford or have a realistic chance at. None!

Besides, Mitch is Pace's guy and this offense was built around him. So Pace/Nagy is going to ride or die with him and give him as many chances as they can. This means that whoever is brought in as competition (whether that is FA or a draft pick) is not even going to see any meaningful playing time until the season is practically over. So why spend the much-needed money on any below-average QB on the open market who is more than likely not even going to be called upon until the season is over?
Also, even if you believe a QB like Dalton is better than Mitch. How many more winning games do you think Dalton is worth vs Mitch? I know I personally wouldn't go any more than MAYBE two games AT BEST ---that's me trying to look at this rationally and not based on what I believe!

Okay, so he won't see the field until the season is over but he is worth 2 more wins than Mitch. What good does this do when the season is over? Other than hurt your team by placing them lower in the draft.

Seriously, what does this accomplish? You still end up with the same end game results. A season with no championship. Except now, you have wasted valuable money that could have been spent on other needs to help the starting QB next year and you more than likely put your team in a worse draft position because you started a below-average QB that you wasted big money on.

I'm also with @AZBearsFan regarding the sudden comparisons to Tannehill and the Titans as well. That team was an anomaly, not the norm. Let's see how they do next year but IMO they were a flash in a pan during a year where everything went right.

 

This. All of this. 

[WindyCity]

7 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

There is not a single QB in free agency who is good enough to put us over the top, that we can afford or have a realistic chance at. None!

Besides, Mitch is Pace's guy and this offense was built around him. So Pace/Nagy is going to ride or die with him and give him as many chances as they can. This means that whoever is brought in as competition (whether that is FA or a draft pick) is not even going to see any meaningful playing time until the season is practically over. So why spend the much-needed money on any below-average QB on the open market who is more than likely not even going to be called upon until the season is over?
Also, even if you believe a QB like Dalton is better than Mitch. How many more winning games do you think Dalton is worth vs Mitch? I know I personally wouldn't go any more than MAYBE two games AT BEST ---that's me trying to look at this rationally and not based on what I believe!

Okay, so he won't see the field until the season is over but he is worth 2 more wins than Mitch. What good does this do when the season is over? Other than hurt your team by placing them lower in the draft.

Seriously, what does this accomplish? You still end up with the same end game results. A season with no championship. Except now, you have wasted valuable money that could have been spent on other needs to help the starting QB next year and you more than likely put your team in a worse draft position because you started a below-average QB that you wasted big money on.

I'm also with @AZBearsFan regarding the sudden comparisons to Tannehill and the Titans as well. That team was an anomaly, not the norm. Let's see how they do next year but IMO they were a flash in a pan during a year where everything went right.

 

2 more wins may have put the Bears into the playoffs.

I agree the Titans are a flash in the pan, but they gave themselves the opportunity to flash. If they had hung the entire season on Mariota they would have had a 0% chance of flashing.

Again, it is not about a QB putting us over the top. It is about ensuring that Mitch doesn’t tank the season. 

We paid Daniel 6 million this season to be a caddy. Paying Dalton 7-8 to actually provide insurance doesn’t seem like a crazy investment.

[The_Romen]

I'd like to add that I wasn't comparing the Bears to the Titans. Just saying that they established an offensive identity and used it to dictate to the defense what they would do, something I wish Nagy would do.

[WindyCity]

I think there are some misunderstandings of the circumstances I would bring in Dalton.

1. I am paying him a max of 8/season

2. I am not trading for him

3. Mitch gets 4-6 games to show improvement

[WindyCity]

10 minutes ago, The_Romen said:

I'd like to add that I wasn't comparing the Bears to the Titans. Just saying that they established an offensive identity and used it to dictate to the defense what they would do, something I wish Nagy would do.

They had the same identity with Mariota. The QB play got better and the team got better.

[WindyCity]

9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I like the odds of Mitch showing sufficient improvement to make us a SB contender far more than Dalton (who’s never won anything of consequence and is long past the point of potential upside) getting us there from the bullpen. We’re talking about the same guy who got benched for Ryan Finley for 3 games last year here. I’m not gonna go so far as to say I’m super high on Mitch going forward because I’m not, but buying on any backup QB we sign to lead us to the promised land in relief is complete fool’s gold. What happened in Tennessee last year is both incredibly uncommon and was also the culmination of multiple things we cannot provide to our backup QB (namely, a league leading power back and a top 5 offensive line, plus an OC committed to playing to his QB’s strengths over pushing scheme), but if that’s our contingency plan model then Mariota makes far more sense than Dalton anyway and he won’t cost a draft pick. 

Whoever our backup is in 2020 needs to be someone more qualified for actually playing football than Daniel, but that’s a pretty low bar. If our starting QB for 2021 isn’t going to be Mitch then IMO our 2021 starting QB is probably not gonna be a guy on the 2020 roster unless we draft our QB2. 

We don’t discuss it, but we need to consider what these FA QBs want too. Anyone signing here has to know that in an ideal world from the team’s perspective they never get to see the field. From the fans‘ perspective the best thing that could happen is Dalton never sees the field too. Even if we want Dalton, does he want the Bears? If he’s taking a 1-year deal at age 32 he’s going to want the job best presenting him with a shot at a multi-year starter deal in 2021 and beyond. That may be here but it may be in Tampa or Carolina or Indianapolis too depending on what happens in their respective QB situations. A year behind Mitch on the bench only further cements that a guy like Dalton is probably going to have a backup only role beyond 2020, and that may not appeal to a guy like him just yet. Maybe he’d prefer a similar situation behind Baker Mayfield in CLE (who was also terrible last year and could be needing a bounce back 2020 to keep his job too) in a division he already knows very well.

Goal 1 short of us signing Brady, Brees or Bridgewater is going to be best setting Mitch up for success. To that end, investing trade capital plus a higher salary to go with Dalton over, say, Case Keenum behind Mitch only serves to limit our ability to accomplish goal 1. IMO, Dalton isn’t any more likely to relief pitch us to the postseason than Mariota, Keenum or any of the other available FA options and because of that I don’t see the value being there in Dalton over Keenum or Mariota. 

I think you massively over rate Dalton's options and the salary that he is going to command.

He is the 8th or 9th most desirable QB on the market.

Mariota, Kennum, Dalton are all fine options at the price point that we are looking at,

[beardown3231]

I don't know how we can say "only" 2 wins when discussing potential veteran FA's. This isn't baseball where 2 wins aren't as close to meaningful. 2 more wins would be 10-6 from last year and most likely would've gotten the Bears into the playoffs.

[WindyCity]

We paid Chase Daniel 6 million last season. Signing Dalton to a Tannehill level deal is a huge steal compared to paying that useless Hobbit 6 million dollars to carry Mitch's travel bag.

[topwop1]

13 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

We paid Chase Daniel 6 million last season. Signing Dalton to a Tannehill level deal is a huge steal compared to paying that useless Hobbit 6 million dollars to carry Mitch's travel bag.

LOL couldn't agree more...but it would just be so Bears for them to re-sign Chase Daniel for another $6M to back up Mitch again next year, wouldn't it?

Edited February 14, 2020 by topwop1

[AZBearsFan]

12 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

We paid Chase Daniel 6 million last season. Signing Dalton to a Tannehill level deal is a huge steal compared to paying that useless Hobbit 6 million dollars to carry Mitch's travel bag.

FWIW Tannehill made just $2M in base pay last year. The rest was all performance incentives. If that’s the level player we’re signing that’s the contract we should be arguing for. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/ryan-tannehill-9818/

[WindyCity]

1 minute ago, topwop1 said:

LOL couldn't agree more...but it would just be so Bears for them to re-sign Chase Daniel for another $6M to back up Mitch again next year, wouldn't it?

I think if we get 16 more games of 2019 Mitch or 10 games of Chase Daniel that is the only way that Pace could be fired at the end of the year. That could lead to a revolt.

[AZBearsFan]

14 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

We paid Chase Daniel 6 million last season. Signing Dalton to a Tannehill level deal is a huge steal compared to paying that useless Hobbit 6 million dollars to carry Mitch's travel bag.

Flex those internet muscles, Windy!