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What Happened to the Bengals?


RandyMossIsBoss

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First let's take a trip down memory lane...

December 8th, 2015. The Bengals are 10-2, atop AFC power rankings, the 2nd highest point differential in the league. They've seemingly finally made the leap to true contender after years of being playoff fodder. Andy Dalton leads the league in passer rating with 107.1, over 3,000 yards and 25 TDs to just 6 INTs while completing over 66% of his passes. Their offense looks elite, their defense looks more than formidable, the Bengals are looking primed to make a SB run. Of course Dalton breaks his thumb the next week early against the Steelers and the season falls apart. They manage 2-2 without Dalton but 12-4 isn't good enough for a bye (they narrowly lost in OT to the Broncos in week 16 with McCarron, losing the tie breaker). Without Dalton they are knocked out in the 1st round for the 5th year in a row.

From 2015 to 2016, they lose offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, receivers Sanu and Marvin Jones, and safety Nelson. For a 12 win team, the player losses are practically nothing, and they seem to make up for it in the draft and FA. The loss of Hue is big, but expected, and in 2015 the defense went on just fine after losing Zimmer. Bengals are expected to resume where they left off before Dalton's thumb injury, and are ranked around 6 or 7 in preseason power rankings. They ultimately finish with a paltry 6 wins. While their IR was pretty crowded by the end of the year, it would be dishonest to put the blame on injuries when they started the season 3-5. So far in 2017, it seems to be the same old story, off to an 0-2 start with no offensive TDs.

 

So since Dalton's broken thumb, the Bengals are just 8-14-1, and Dalton, in 18 games, has thrown for just 18 TDs, 12 INTs, completing 63% of his passes en route to a 87.1 passer rating. 

 

 

What happened? Was that 12 game stretch in 2015 a fluke more than anything where things just happened to click perfectly? (and if so, was the fluke merely Dalton's play, or the entire team?) Was Hue Jackson just integral to the team's success? Do they have any hope of recapturing that brief "glory" with the current regime/QB? Did Dalton's thumb injury have long term effects?

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Lost out 2 best olinemen to FA and the replacements have been garbage.  The OC for our first two games this year was in way over his head and shouldn't be anything other than a QB coach.  Burfict is the heart and soul of the defense and missed this first two games because of suspension.  The defense will be ok this year, but the offense is going to be a mess until the oline gets fixed and that isn't happening this year.  We have maybe 2 NFL worthy starting olinemen.  Possibly 1.

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Marvin Jones, Sanu, Whitworth, Zeitler, Peko.  That's a lot of talent to replace in 2 years.

Add in Hue, Gruden, Zimmer, etc and that's a lot of coaching talent to replace as well over the last few years.

Not everyone is the Patriots, and not many teams have a player like Brady who is able to mask roster deficiencies.

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1 hour ago, Stevein2012 said:

Dalton is bad and they don't have enough talent to cover for his issues anymore.  Guy can't even be counted on to throw a catchable swing pass or WR screen.

That's a pretty hot taek.  This is going to be the common sentiment in this thread, but it's much more than that.

  • Mounting losses on the offensive line.  They've been really bad.
  • Losing experienced receivers that gelled well with Dalton and replacing them with Brandon Lafell (who is ok) and Tyler Boyd (also just ok)
  • An OC that doesn't gameplan well
    • Doesn't involve Tyler Eifert
    • Gameplans guys like Brandon Lafell, Alex Erickson and Jeremy Hill to get the ball in key situations while guys like AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, John Ross and Joe Mixon stand around.
    • Starts Jeremy Hill who is obviously the 3rd best back on the roster
  • Dalton has been bad this year BUT he was pretty decent last year considering what was going on around him
    • AJ Green hurt part of the year (played 9 games basically)
    • Tyler Eifert hurt hurt the other party of the year
    • Rookie Tyler Boyd 3rd most targeted player
    • Terrible rushing game
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So my last post covered offense, but the other part is the defense had some issues early while Burfict was out.  They were pretty bad.  The PPG wasn't terrible, but no sacks or turnovers to speak of.  The other team chewed a lot of clock.

One of the big reasons you saw a drop off last year is due to the age of the team.  They were up there as one of the oldest units on a snap weighted average.  This year they will be one of the youngest, and that will likely mean some losses early while they get up the speed.

A lot of people see a 4 win team because of this start.  But i still think they'll turn things around.  They have a lot of talent, they just haven't put it to best use.  And that's not all Dalton.

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If you want to over simplify the blame:

  • 60% - Offensive Line
  • 30% - Dalton regression
  • 10% - Everything else

The Offensive Line is #1.  Dalton as a result of knowing his protection is limited, has just regressed badly but still deserves blame because he can't hit targets even when there's not pressure now.

All the other issues (losing Sanu + Marvin Jones, Coaching, Coaching, and Coaching) would result in a slight regression but not to the extent that people are seeing now. Also, I should point out the Bengals look worst against elite defenses.  Which the Ravens and Texans have (especially the Ravens, good god). When we get to play against non-elite defenses I'm expecting a better showing than 'potential worst team in the NFL' output that we've displayed the first two weeks...

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