WHAT IS YOUR MAX. COMPENSATION FOR #3?

[Karnage84]

The Dolphins and the Lions are being linked for obvious reasons in trade scenarios. Assuming that the Dolphins do in fact want to trade up to #3 to select their QB (Tua or Herbert), what would be the maximum amount of compensation that you would consider to be acceptable for such a trade? 

As a Lions fan, I've seen a number of different scenarios. Some involving pick # 18, some involving pick #26, some involving both 2nd's and others involving less. I am curious to see what the other side of these deals would think if the trigger was pulled. 

[hrubes20]

#26 is the absolute max I would give to move up 2 spots, and that's assuming Tua's medicals look fantastic.  It's a fair bit more than the draft pick value chart, but I understand the inflation when a QB is involved at the pick.  I think pick #39 is the one that fits the value chart much more closely.  

But I'm on the record as saying I don't want to trade up at all.  

[Jtownsfine5t]

I would give up #5 and #39. If its #5 and #26 then I would ask for a 4th rd pick in return

[Karnage84]

4 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

#26 is the absolute max I would give to move up 2 spots, and that's assuming Tua's medicals look fantastic.  It's a fair bit more than the draft pick value chart, but I understand the inflation when a QB is involved at the pick.  I think pick #39 is the one that fits the value chart much more closely.  

But I'm on the record as saying I don't want to trade up at all.  

Would you feel the same way if the target was Herbert instead of Tua? I'm seeing reports that the Dolphins may be leaning towards him although this could be a smokescreen to try and bring the cost of trading up to #3 down. 

[skhurst0398]

Using the Jets/Colts trade as a baseline, which was the 6th overall pick along with the 37th, 49th and a future 2nd round pick, I think the 5th, 26th, and 70th with a possibility for future draft considerations is a pretty equivalent deal. 

Edited February 18, 2020 by skhurst0398

[Swampbilly]

I don’t think any team is desperate to move up for Tua, and it’s because of his injury history.  I think the Chargers are the most likely but will be content with Herbert at 6 considering they have Tyrod Taylor who played very well for Anthony Lynn in Buffalo and will be the Chargers starter at QB next season regardless of who they draft.

Carolina is a big mystery right now and could make a move up, but is just as likely to keep Newton and move down to accumulate picks.

Raiders aren’t a serious threat to move up IMO, because Gruden isn’t a Rookie QB kind of guy.  IMO they either keep Carr on the cheap or cut Carr and sign a veteran FA QB.  Besides, Lions don’t want to move that far back.

Jacksonville hasn’t given Foles much opportunity yet and have Menshew showing great potential on the super cheap contract.

Colts could move on from Brissett but would have to surrender multiple years of first round picks to move up to 3 and I don’t see the Lions willing to move back that far if they are going to fairly give Patricia another season.

I think our GM Grier knows this and trades up on the cheap.  Lions get pick 5, pick 39, and a 2021 2nd rounder.  Lions still get one of the two players they covet at number 5, get to pay a little less for him, and pick up 2 additional 2nd rounders.  I really think it’s that or we stay put at 5, let another team take their chances to move up for Tua, then we possibly trade back to allow a QB needy team to leapfrog the Chargers for Herbert.  Then we have more ammo for the 2021 Trevor Lawrence lottery ( we already have 2 firsts and 2 seconds for 2021 and could potentially pick up another 1st and 2nd ).

We aren’t in the same scenario as the Jets were a couple years ago when they moved up for Darnold.  We have a lot of options and a ton of picks to go after a QB over the next 2 seasons, and we have no room to give up high draft capitol for a player with health risks.  If Tua hadn’t been injured then it’s a different story but he just isn’t valued as highly now as he was a year ago.

Edited February 18, 2020 by Swampbilly

[Swampbilly]

16 hours ago, skhurst0398 said:

Using the Jets/Colts trade as a baseline, which was the 6th overall pick along with the 37th, 49th and a future 2nd round pick, I think the 5th, 39th, and 70th with a possibility for future draft considerations is a pretty equivalent deal. 

There, you obviously made a typo so I fixed it for you LOL!!!

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Swampbilly said:

I don’t think any team is desperate to move up for Tua, and it’s because of his injury history.  I think the Chargers are the most likely but will be content with Herbert at 6 considering they have Tyrod Taylor who played very well for Anthony Lynn in Buffalo and will be the Chargers starter at QB next season regardless of who they draft.

Carolina is a big mystery right now and could make a move up, but is just as likely to keep Newton and move down to accumulate picks.

Raiders aren’t a serious threat to move up IMO, because Gruden isn’t a Rookie QB kind of guy.  IMO they either keep Carr on the cheap or cut Carr and sign a veteran FA QB.  Besides, Lions don’t want to move that far back.

Jacksonville hasn’t given Foles much opportunity yet and have Menshew showing great potential on the super cheap contract.

Colts could move on from Brissett but would have to surrender multiple years of first round picks to move up to 3 and I don’t see the Lions willing to move back that far if they are going to fairly give Patricia another season.

I think our GM Grier knows this and trades up on the cheap.  Lions get pick 5, pick 39, and a 2021 2nd rounder.  Lions still get one of the two players they covet at number 5, get to pay a little less for him, and pick up 2 additional 2nd rounders.  I really think it’s that or we stay put at 5, let another team take their chances to move up for Tua, then we possibly trade back to allow a QB needy team to leapfrog the Chargers for Herbert.  Then we have more ammo for the 2021 Trevor Lawrence lottery ( we already have 2 firsts and 2 seconds for 2021 and could potentially pick up another 1st and 2nd ).

We aren’t in the same scenario as the Jets were a couple years ago when they moved up for Darnold.  We have a lot of options and a ton of picks to go after a QB over the next 2 seasons, and we have no room to give up high draft capitol for a player with health risks.  If Tua hadn’t been injured then it’s a different story but he just isn’t valued as highly now as he was a year ago.

Your scenario of #5, #39 and a 2021 2nd isn't a bad haul overall for the Lions. It's not groundbreaking but I could get on board with it based on the way you've positioned the teams and Tua's health. 

Ultimately, it's going to depend on Tua's health at the time of the draft and the likelihood of a recurring injury. If a team is confident that he should be able to stay healthy, then the overall interest and value will go up. If it's still a bit of an unknown, I wouldn't hate it if Quinn pulled the trigger on that deal. 

[Swampbilly]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Your scenario of #5, #39 and a 2021 2nd isn't a bad haul overall for the Lions. It's not groundbreaking but I could get on board with it based on the way you've positioned the teams and Tua's health. 

Ultimately, it's going to depend on Tua's health at the time of the draft and the likelihood of a recurring injury. If a team is confident that he should be able to stay healthy, then the overall interest and value will go up. If it's still a bit of an unknown, I wouldn't hate it if Quinn pulled the trigger on that deal. 

I think it is fair for both teams, but I want to stress: That is the max offer IMO.  

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Swampbilly said:

I think it is fair for both teams, but I want to stress: That is the max offer IMO.  

For sure. Assuming that teams like the Chargers and Panthers are going to be interested in moving up, the Dolphins are going to have to give their max offer to get Tua if he is their guy. If Herbert shows out and there are major health questions on Tua, then we're in the same boat really. Worst case scenario for Detroit is Herbert and Tua both showing positive signs and being nearly interchangeable. Even then, we just might move down for a little less compensation. 

TDN has a very heavy offer for us from Carolina in a recent mock draft. The nice thing for you guys is that you do have a lot of draft capital this year and next without the pressure to perform immediately. Can always build up pieces around Fitzpatrick and hope that you can still get Lawrence or Fields next year. 

[Swampbilly]

13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

For sure. Assuming that teams like the Chargers and Panthers are going to be interested in moving up, the Dolphins are going to have to give their max offer to get Tua if he is their guy. If Herbert shows out and there are major health questions on Tua, then we're in the same boat really. Worst case scenario for Detroit is Herbert and Tua both showing positive signs and being nearly interchangeable. Even then, we just might move down for a little less compensation. 

TDN has a very heavy offer for us from Carolina in a recent mock draft. The nice thing for you guys is that you do have a lot of draft capital this year and next without the pressure to perform immediately. Can always build up pieces around Fitzpatrick and hope that you can still get Lawrence or Fields next year. 

Our GM Grier has been pretty savvy so far with the way he has handled personnel since Tannenbaum's, not soon enough, departure.  So if we do get raked over the coals going after Tua then it'll likely be because our Owner couldn't keep his cool LOL.

[Karnage84]

Just now, Swampbilly said:

Our GM Grier has been pretty savvy so far with the way he has handled personnel since Tannenbaum's, not soon enough, departure.  So if we do get raked over the coals going after Tua then it'll likely be because our Owner couldn't keep his cool LOL.

Fingers are crossed over here....

What is your expectation of the team in 2020 and 2021? What kind of time frame is Flores dealing with? Do you expect them to field a competitive team? Or are you guys OK with building up the roster and accumulating picks? 

[frankmoore]

On 2/18/2020 at 1:50 PM, Karnage84 said:

Your scenario of #5, #39 and a 2021 2nd isn't a bad haul overall for the Lions. It's not groundbreaking but I could get on board with it based on the way you've positioned the teams and Tua's health. 

Ultimately, it's going to depend on Tua's health at the time of the draft and the likelihood of a recurring injury. If a team is confident that he should be able to stay healthy, then the overall interest and value will go up. If it's still a bit of an unknown, I wouldn't hate it if Quinn pulled the trigger on that deal. 

 

On 2/18/2020 at 4:30 PM, Swampbilly said:

I think it is fair for both teams, but I want to stress: That is the max offer IMO.  

 

The prevailing wisdom from people around the league is that trading from 5 to 3 will cost Miami both of their 2nd round picks in this draft as well as one of next year's 2nd round picks.  Now, clearly, that's overpaying but it's for a QB and all you have to do is look at Philly, KC, and Houston to see that trading up for the right guy is worth it.

Having said that, I think Miami is interested in moving to #3 but that they're balking at the asking price which is why you're hearing rumors out of Detroit that they might be looking at selecting Tua at #3 (the Lions want to generate a market for the #3 pick).  Miami is responding by saying that they haven't determined whether they like Justin Herbert more than Tagovailoa and it's why Steve Ross came out and publicly questioned Tua's health at the Super Bowl.

Know this:  the Lions are in a tight spot, their football ops people are on the hot seat to at least be competitive.  With that in mind, I cannot see them being willing invest in a QB this year with as many holes as they have on that roster.  If they suck this year, they'll have another high first-round pick and a shot at one of the plethora of young QBs expected to be available in 2021.  At the end of the day, I think that they'd be happy to add the 39th pick in order to trade back and still get the guy they want.

Time will tell.

[Jtownsfine5t]

If we do somehow trade both 2's and one of next years 2and. Then we could trade out of rd 1 with pick 26 and accumulate some of those picks back

[Swampbilly]

7 hours ago, frankmoore said:

 

 

The prevailing wisdom from people around the league is that trading from 5 to 3 will cost Miami both of their 2nd round picks in this draft as well as one of next year's 2nd round picks.  Now, clearly, that's overpaying but it's for a QB and all you have to do is look at Philly, KC, and Houston to see that trading up for the right guy is worth it.

Having said that, I think Miami is interested in moving to #3 but that they're balking at the asking price which is why you're hearing rumors out of Detroit that they might be looking at selecting Tua at #3 (the Lions want to generate a market for the #3 pick).  Miami is responding by saying that they haven't determined whether they like Justin Herbert more than Tagovailoa and it's why Steve Ross came out and publicly questioned Tua's health at the Super Bowl.

Know this:  the Lions are in a tight spot, their football ops people are on the hot seat to at least be competitive.  With that in mind, I cannot see them being willing invest in a QB this year with as many holes as they have on that roster.  If they suck this year, they'll have another high first-round pick and a shot at one of the plethora of young QBs expected to be available in 2021.  At the end of the day, I think that they'd be happy to add the 39th pick in order to trade back and still get the guy they want

Time will tell

I really see Detroit AND Washington in tight spots if they want to trade back and stay in the top 10.  If Tua wouldn't have had the hip dislocation then that wouldn't be the case, but it is what it is.  We are in a great spot sitting at #5 with plenty of Draft Capitol in 2020.  The Lion's best option is going to be getting picks 5 and 39, of course they will demand more, but I truly believe we are their best scenario with 5 and 39, maybe we sweeten the pot with a 5th or 6th but I don't see Grier moving on from both 2nd's.  If an unforeseen team does trade up to #2 for Tua then we take Chase Young at #3 and it's on to 2021 for Lawrence or Fields.

Grier has done pretty well since T-Bum's exit, and I predict he keeps working his mojo in this draft.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Swampbilly