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How much cap space do the Bears really have to spend? $22M is a far cry from the expected 40-50M.


JAF-N72EX

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Part 1: How much cap space do the Bears really have to spend before any transactions and after signing each draft picks?

I think most of us assumed that the Bears could make a few moves to clear around 40-50M (which did make sense at the time) but it appears that we were way off after taking a closer look so I'm gonna use this thread to show why we were off on our assumptions. And, at the same time, maybe help those who may not be familiar with how the salary cap works -- read the spoilers. 

So with that said, let's work under the assumption that all current contracts stay the same and the Bears don't sign any free agents or trade away any draft picks and see just how much cap space we would really have after the draft and before any transactions.

(Btw, @Madmike90 & @AZBearsFan, I gotta say fellas, I'm warming up to the idea of either trading Floyd or letting him walk even though I have fought tooth and nail against it. Not quite there yet since I'm still weighing the good vs the bad. And I don't think it'll happen anyways... but man we really could use the money. Hopefully, they work out a friendly deal, which is probably more likely than the latter.)

Here is a complete list of the 51 players that would count against the cap, as of right now.

5TExqw7.png HSBaanL.png

 

 
 
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First, the basics start with what is called the "team salary cap" which is a set number by the league based on how much revenue they brought in for the year. The total league revenue is largely based on TV station deals, streaming deals, ratings, advertisements, commercials, live attendance, and merchandise sales. The total earned revenue money is then spread out equally among each team --after the owners take their ~52.5% cut. Which, in turn, sets the total "team salary cap' for that year. For instance, if the league made 13.5 Billion in total this year then ~47.5% (6.4B) of that is spread out among all 32 teams (

$6,400,000,000 divided by 32 = $200,000,000 per team). 

(Basically, to earn more money for the Bears then start watching every single game you can just to help run up the league revenue lol). 

Then there is "effective salary cap" which is the amount that each team has to spend in the off-season/regular season which relies on a lot of different factors (roll-over money from the previous year, total cap % for each player in THAT particular year, dead cap space attained, top-51 players cap hit for the regular season, top-53 in the off-season, rookie pool, etc). 

Dead-cap is guaranteed money that is still owed to any player who is released before their contract expires and goes against a team's effective cap space.

For example, Taylor Gabriel signed a contract guaranteeing him $4M in guaranteed signing bonus money and the money was prorated for the length of the contract, 4 years (1M per year). But since he has only been on the team for 2 years, that means if the Bears release him before his contract expires then they have to pay him the remaining amount owed to him, and this total goes against the effective cap space during the year they release him.

In this example case, Gabriel has already been "paid" 2M of the 4M that he was guaranteed (1M in 2018 and 1M in 2019) but the Bears still owe him the remaining 2M. So if they release him in 2020 then we have to pay him ALL of what we still owe (2M). 

So what do the Bears gain then by releasing him? Why not keep him if it going to cost us 2M? Because, as you can see in the above images(player #13), he is set to make 6.5M in total if he remains on the roster which means the Bears clear 4.5M if he is released --yes they have to pay him 2M regardless but they don't have to take his 6.5M cap hit amount either (6.5M cap hit minus 2M still owed = 4.5M cleared in "effective cap space").

 

  • Team Salary Cap: $200,000,000
    (I'm using this amount because I believe it will be around this much based on my own projections--give or take 1-2M (199M-201M)).
     
  • The total salary cap hit for the current top-51 players: -$198,297,657
     
  • Total current dead-cap hit: -$3,902,403
     
  • The rookie pool is $6,038,462 (based on our picks) but the actual cap space needed to sign these rookies: -$1,958,462 (as of right now)
     
  • Est cap space needed for the off-season: -$2,000,000
    (teams like to set this aside money for any unexpected happenings such as; IR replacements, PS, etc.)
     
  • 2019 cap roll-over: +$16,556,739 
     
  • Cap space needed for the additional 2 players against the cap: -$1,047,009
    (53 players count against the cap until the final 53 man roster set date on Sept 5th, 4PMest but we get this back afterward though)

Grand total effective cap space = $10,398,217 ($9,351,208‬ off-season‬ cap space)

***Keep in mind, the list of the top-51 players is going to change throughout the off-season and during the reg season -- particularly with any free agents that are brought in and any rookies that are drafted and signed -- which I'll get into later. 

 

For those not familiar, only the top-51 players with the highest salaries on each team actually count against the cap when the season begins and the rest do not (cap hit, not base salary). For example, Justin Simmons (and 9 other players) have contracts that are currently $510,000 which puts them in the top-51 on the roster. But if we sign 1 new player for more than that --say $520,000-- then this would cancel out Justin Simmons and his contract would then be replaced by the new signing. In the event of a "tie", a team has the right to claim which players are placed on the non-active list. For example, we actually have 10 players who are currently set to make the same amount in 2020 ($510,000) but since this would exceed the top-51, the FO gets to decide which player is put on the "exempt list" for lack of a better term---not that it matters much in most cases because it's usually based around the possibility of injury concerns and injury disputes (that's where unexpected off-season money comes into play).

The rookie pool is the total cost that a team needs to sign rookies but the actual amount of space needed is much lower (more on this below and how I figured it to be $1,047,009 for the Bears)‬. 

 

Part 2: Releasing Prince and Gabriel, and taking a closer look at the contracts of each draft pick.

So in part 1, we established that the Bears have a total effective cap space of $10,398,217 ($9,351,208‬ off-season‬ cap space) before any transactions, and I think we can all agree that Gabriel and Prince are not worth what they are being paid, correct? I'll assume that this an astounding internet YES from all of you.

Releasing Prince and Gabriel will free up an additional $13,500,000 (13.5M) which brings the Bears up to $23,898,217‬ effective cap space (9M from Prince and 4.5M from gabriel)

Here is an estimated salary for each of our picks in this year's draft and what their projected cap space will be for each of the next 4 years. For the sake of this thread, numbers in year 1 are all you really need to focus on. I only posted the others for those who may be interested.
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Notice how each of the projected salaries each pick in year 1 is higher than those of the lowest salaries on the current roster (even the two 7th round picks)? 

This means that 7 of those 9 players with $510 thousand dollar contracts are going to be replaced with higher salaries from all 8 draft picks, which ultimately leads to even less cap space. This is where the above amount of "actual cap space needed to sign rookies" comes from The Bears were originally set to only paying 9 players at 510k at a piece ($4,080,000 in total), but they have to replace them with the contracts from the upcoming draft pick which equal $6,038,462 in total. This means that the Bears need an additional $1,958,462 of cap space allowance as of right now after releasing Prince and Gabriel.

So now that we have released Prince and Gabriel, and have an estimated baseline of how much each draft pick will cost, let's look at how this will change the current roster in terms of salary if we signed each pick. 

This is the NEW complete list of 51 players that would count against the cap after releasing Prince and Gabriel, and signing the new draft picks.

GkKrkbt.png swVzWb8.png


Team Cap Salary: $200,000,000
Total salary cap hit for the current top-51 players: -
$184,776,119
Total current dead-cap hit: -6,902,403
2019 cap roll-over: +$16,556,739 

Estimated needed for the off-season: -$2,000,000

The grand total of REAL cap space as of now if the Bears release Prince and Gabriel = $22,878,217 

$23M. Of course, we all know that players like Arob (and hopefully Hicks) are going to be extended which will free up ~6M in total, and so brings it up to ~29M. 

 

Edited by JustAnotherFan
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Okay, well, I was only trying to use the spoiler tag for certain parts of my post but apparently, the site thinks I was trying to use on it every piece AFTER the first part of the post.

And now it suddenly just won't let me edit parts of my post, even though it did a minute ago, and I didn't have this strange icon and a long string of nothing before it.

But whatever, this site is junk. Go back to PHP

Edited by JustAnotherFan
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22 minutes ago, G08 said:

Did you know she's selling a candle which smells of her vagina?

Yep. Disgusting. Nothing too new for that psychotic broad.  

 

I was a bit sad for it not to be called "Sir Vick's" or "Foreboding Folds." A lot of comedic potential there that wasn't utilized. Regardless, I think the candle at that price would be a better value than her actual one for the same price. 

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1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

People seem to believe Floyd is going to sign a team friendly deal.  

Not so sure.  

Hub and Arthur Arkush were talking to a former agent last night (missed the name) on The Score and the agent basically said “Floyd won’t play under that tag number,” essentially intimating that if Floyd wouldn’t work with the team on a more cap friendly deal they could very well rescind the tag and cut him loose. I don’t know how read into Floyd’s market he is or in tune he is with the Bears’ front office as a former agent but his logic behind it was sound - there are a bunch of other edge players with as much or more ability to that of Floyd (differing skill sets for sure - not going back down that path) for significantly less in 2020 cap commitment, and that from the FO perspective it wouldn’t just be what they get to replace Floyd with the $13.2M but what else they could also add with any carryover $ after doing so. My greater point on the Floyd topic all along has been a sum of the parts argument - if you can reallocate the $13.2M due to Floyd and turn it into, say, Joe Thuney AND Emmanuel Ogbah as far as 2020 cap hits go are they not better off as a collective whole even if Ogbah isn’t what Floyd is in coverage? I think there’s a really strong argument that they would be.

I’m certainly not as convinced as many here that Floyd would get a huge guarantee on the open market right now even as a 4-3 OLB (where I see his skill set as an obvious best fit). Two high end comps I can find contract wise for Floyd are Demario Davis (3/24 with $16M guaranteed in 2018) and Anthony Barr (5/67.5 with just $13M (2019 base + SB) guaranteed at signing). It would only take 1 team I suppose to give him a Shaq Thompson deal (4/54 with $27.5M guaranteed in 2019) but I think that’s a pretty significant outlier. 

Floyd’s agent will have more of a feel for his market than any of us for sure, but if he misses the top of the market I think there’s a pretty real chance he ends up on a prove it type deal elsewhere which is very possibly a worse option for him than a short extension here similar to that of Davis noted above. 

tl/dr: A more team friendly deal for Floyd may also be a market level deal for Floyd and one that’s his best long term option too.  

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7 hours ago, dll2000 said:

People seem to believe Floyd is going to sign a team friendly deal.  

Not so sure.  

Neither am I. He's going to want to have more security, but that doesn't mean he is going to shortchange himself IMO. If he can be overpaid then why wouldn't he take that deal?

 

I've been ready to try and trade him since before the 2019 season. He's a talented guy but just not going to be worth his contract in this system. Last year did nothing but confirm that for me.

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