How much cap space do the Bears really have to spend? $22M is a far cry from the expected 40-50M.

[WindyCity]

I am fine if they pull his tag and then he goes out to see what the market is.

My guess is his market is closer to 5/ year than it is to 13/year.

 

[dll2000]

On 2/18/2020 at 7:01 PM, WindyCity said:

I am fine if they pull his tag and then he goes out to see what the market is.

My guess is his market is closer to 5/ year than it is to 13/year.

 

I am curious about his true market as well. 

[soulman]

On 2/18/2020 at 11:44 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Hub and Arthur Arkush were talking to a former agent last night (missed the name) on The Score and the agent basically said “Floyd won’t play under that tag number,” essentially intimating that if Floyd wouldn’t work with the team on a more cap friendly deal they could very well rescind the tag and cut him loose.

This has pretty much been my thinking all along.  Carrying him with a $13.2 mil cap hit isn't good business.  If Pace can get him to agree to an extension with little more guaranteed than his $13 mil option and one we can be out of after 2021 it should work well for us and quite possibly for Floyd as well.

Teams only pay Edge Rushers for sacks and Floyd doesn't get them often enough to command top dollar as a FA.  So I really don't see anyone offering him more guaranteed money than something in the $12-$15 mil range on a 3 or 4 year deal.  That kind of deal we should also be able to offer and maybe we have or will at or after the Combine.

Floyd is the other elephant in the room so Pace might as well tackle it head on and either get a deal done, look to trade him, or be prepared to release him and let him test FA for himself.  I can't see us being willing to carry him under his 5th year option period.  The idea that he will ever break out as a top sack artists should by now be null and void.  He never was "that guy" even in college.

[JAF-N72EX]

I know this is old since I haven't been around so I'm gonna try and catch up here.

On 2/18/2020 at 8:32 AM, WindyCity said:

Without extensions or restructures the Bears can get to about 28 million in cap space with obvious cuts.

With a new CBA that number will go up.

 

 

This thread wasn't made based on what Windy would consider "obvious cuts" or any other speculation.  Everyone's "obvious cuts" would be very different from one another so I chose to stick with the 2 players that made the most sense at the time (financial wise, which turned out to be true) and what I believed most of Bears fans would agree upon. I left out any and all other opinions here. 

The new CBA won't affect this year at all unless they come to an agreement today, which is highly unlikely with the idea of a 17 game season hanging in the balance and how far apart the owners and players are regarding the subject. 

Both parties have alot of issues, concerns, and ideal changes to address--even moreso than during 2011 lockout--so I wouldn't expect a new agreement until the last minute next year, at best. IMO. Right now, at this point, the owners and NLFPA are setting up the preliminaries in the same way that they do every year and nothing more. 

On 2/18/2020 at 12:04 PM, dll2000 said:

Its okay it’s not like @JustAnotherFanput any time or effort into it. 

It's cool. I don't think they were deliberately meaning to try and derail the thread. They were just having fun....nothing wrong with that. Ultimately, this forum is to provide entertainment and discussion. Suga and Tyty are your proverbial quintessential ideal members of a forum like this---that's what I like about them, personally.

That said though, I do appreciate you and @beardown3231 trying to get this thread back on track because I did spend alot of time crunching the expected numbers and whatnot, so thank you both for that. I plan to keep this updated throughout the off-season and beyond.

 

On 2/18/2020 at 12:05 PM, dll2000 said:

Just cut Floyd already. You know you want to. 

Man, it's a really tough predicament because I do value the position, and while I don't necessarily see Floyd as an in-expendable asset to the team....I don't really see any viable replacement in free agency that could do much better than him either -- go back and watch film and you will see that he did alot more than what showed on stat sheets. Ontop of that, I personally don't think this draft is deep on Edge players in general, and I would much rather use our earlier draft picks on fixing what's broke (offense) and not what isn't (defense). Now, that isn't to say that I would be upset if Pace believed in his scouting staff and they pitch the idea of drafting an Edge that they felt good about in the later rounds. 

So back to the money aspect, what are our choices? Rescind his contract and save 13.2M or keep him and work with the salary cap that we have? 

Is Floyd worth 13M? NO--absolutely not. Is he worth it for ONE YEAR though? <<< THIS is the crux of the battles going on my head right now. Becuase we could use that 13M, for sure. But at the same time our current defense is not the problem, and like or not, Floyd has played apart of this defense so who is out there that can replace him that would take less money in the open market? 

This is the same tough spot that the Steelers are in right now with Bud Dupree.
 

On 2/18/2020 at 1:44 PM, AZBearsFan said:

Hub and Arthur Arkush were talking to a former agent last night (missed the name) on The Score and the agent basically said “Floyd won’t play under that tag number,” essentially intimating that if Floyd wouldn’t work with the team on a more cap friendly deal they could very well rescind the tag and cut him loose. I don’t know how read into Floyd’s market he is or in tune he is with the Bears’ front office as a former agent but his logic behind it was sound - there are a bunch of other edge players with as much or more ability to that of Floyd (differing skill sets for sure - not going back down that path) for significantly less in 2020 cap commitment, and that from the FO perspective it wouldn’t just be what they get to replace Floyd with the $13.2M but what else they could also add with any carryover $ after doing so. My greater point on the Floyd topic all along has been a sum of the parts argument - if you can reallocate the $13.2M due to Floyd and turn it into, say, Joe Thuney AND Emmanuel Ogbah as far as 2020 cap hits go are they not better off as a collective whole even if Ogbah isn’t what Floyd is in coverage? I think there’s a really strong argument that they would be.

I’m certainly not as convinced as many here that Floyd would get a huge guarantee on the open market right now even as a 4-3 OLB (where I see his skill set as an obvious best fit). Two high end comps I can find contract wise for Floyd are Demario Davis (3/24 with $16M guaranteed in 2018) and Anthony Barr (5/67.5 with just $13M (2019 base + SB) guaranteed at signing). It would only take 1 team I suppose to give him a Shaq Thompson deal (4/54 with $27.5M guaranteed in 2019) but I think that’s a pretty significant outlier. 

Floyd’s agent will have more of a feel for his market than any of us for sure, but if he misses the top of the market I think there’s a pretty real chance he ends up on a prove it type deal elsewhere which is very possibly a worse option for him than a short extension here similar to that of Davis noted above. 

tl/dr: A more team friendly deal for Floyd may also be a market level deal for Floyd and one that’s his best long term option too.  

The FO can rescind his deal at any time before the official start of the league without any repercussions. But that date is only 6 days away (March 18th) -- which, barring some sort of no-brainer trade, means the staff is already deadset on keeping Floyd.

I don't think it's out the realm of possibility that Floyd keeps his current contract right now and they renegotiate a team-friendly long-term deal during the regular season before week 6. This would give him a chance to prove his true worth with a healthy a Mack, and more importantly for his side of the field, having Hicks back. 

On 2/18/2020 at 1:44 PM, AZBearsFan said:

My greater point on the Floyd topic all along has been a sum of the parts argument - if you can reallocate the $13.2M due to Floyd and turn it into, say, Joe Thuney AND Emmanuel Ogbah as far as 2020 cap hits go are they not better off as a collective whole even if Ogbah isn’t what Floyd is in coverage?

The main problem you have with trying to replace Floyd (or any other Edge player) by using the committee approach is that you limit your playbook and expose it at the same time based on what each replacement player bring to the table. If an opposing coach knows X player is good against the run but not good against the pass or covering the flat then that player is more than likely going to be in against plays where the Bears are expecting the run. Conversely,  if Y player is bad against the run aand solid in the flats then that player is going to be mostly used on passing downs. 

 

^^ This is part of the crux that I am at with Floyd. He is not GREAT at ANYTHING. But he is solid at all aspects when he surrounded by a healthy front.

 

But, going back to the money aspect...........I don't know what to do. All I know is I would hate to put myself in Pace's shoes.

On 2/25/2020 at 6:38 AM, soulman said:

Teams only pay Edge Rushers for sacks

I strongly disagree with this and the Ravens offense this past season is a perfect example as to why. They ran a heavy set offense that mainly featured 3 TE's and it was something new that the league had not seen since the early 90's, and remember, this a copycat league. The Ravens showed last season that teams need two edge players who can do both; rush the passer AND play containment in zone coverage on a TE over the top and RB's in the flats. If not, then you end up getting burned.

It's a different game. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by JustAnotherFan

[WindyCity]

I am confident they can pretty painlessly get to 40 million. With a new cap it would be closer to 50.

[AZBearsFan]

16 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

The main problem you have with trying to replace Floyd (or any other Edge player) by using the committee approach is that you limit your playbook and expose it at the same time based on what each replacement player bring to the table. If an opposing coach knows X player is good against the run but not good against the pass or covering the flat then that player is more than likely going to be in against plays where the Bears are expecting the run. Conversely,  if Y player is bad against the run aand solid in the flats then that player is going to be mostly used on passing downs. 

 

^^ This is part of the crux that I am at with Floyd. He is not GREAT at ANYTHING. But he is solid at all aspects when he surrounded by a healthy front.

He’s solid at everything...except rushing the passer. He’s had more than 5 sacks exactly zero times in the past 3 seasons despite playing in all 16 in each of the last two. He was part of the best front 7 in football in 2018 and had 4 sacks in nearly 800 snaps. FOUR! 18.5 sacks in 4 seasons is a paltry number for a guy who has been a full time starter since day 1 (54 games, 54 starts). He’s no less limited than those other committee replacement type players you mention. Sacks are not everything, but they’re a BIG part of it, and he’s woefully inadequate in that regard. Floyd is well established at this point a guy who should be coming off the field regularly in obvious passing situations, or at minimum shifting inside. 

[Damikeeeee]

I dont like that Floyd is old for his experience. Hes hurt or knicked up more than I'd like. His pass rush is non existent and even when QBs and chased into him they always seem to evade him. Hes not good in coverage. Hes ok for an edge rusher but not good. His run D is good but I'd rather see what's behind door number two.  Edge is a very expensive position and Floyd can get paid. I'll take the comp pick and wish him the best. We can draft someone and save 10+ mil. 

[soulman]

Unless there's further news from the NFL that will push back the beginning of the new league year due to the precautions all other major sports leagues are taking whatever Pace has decided about Floyd or will decide should be known pretty soon.

Teams are now shedding players they deem to pricey for their production and adding cap space so on Monday they can make their offers to whoever they have targeted as their primary FA prospects.  Pace could be waiting on the both the CBA vote on Saturday and on the possibility of an offer they may be planning to make on Monday before deciding.  Or, now that DT has been re-signed maybe they're reaching out to Floyd with an offer for an extension that will lower his cap costs.

The only thing I'm at least relatively certain of (maybe 80/20) is Pace won't keep him at his 5th year option cost.

[AZBearsFan]

42 minutes ago, soulman said:

Unless there's further news from the NFL that will push back the beginning of the new league year due to the precautions all other major sports leagues are taking whatever Pace has decided about Floyd or will decide should be known pretty soon.

Teams are now shedding players they deem to pricey for their production and adding cap space so on Monday they can make their offers to whoever they have targeted as their primary FA prospects.  Pace could be waiting on the both the CBA vote on Saturday and on the possibility of an offer they may be planning to make on Monday before deciding.  Or, now that DT has been re-signed maybe they're reaching out to Floyd with an offer for an extension that will lower his cap costs.

The only thing I'm at least relatively certain of (maybe 80/20) is Pace won't keep him at his 5th year option cost.

They can explore the tampering period and see what else they can get with the Floyd money before having to actually commit to keeping him or letting him go. It only makes sense for them to do so. They could reasonably turn Floyd’s $13.2M in 2020 cap space into 2 or maybe 3 solid starters (depending on contract structure) and have it be a financial push. 

[JAF-N72EX]

15 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I am confident they can pretty painlessly get to 40 million. With a new cap it would be closer to 50.

Still waiting on the details of the contract but if DT signed-- what I expect to be about--  8M APY contract then that alone brings the total down to 15M ($15,388,217), and 14M in off-season money ($14,368,217).

5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

He’s solid at everything...except rushing the passer. He’s had more than 5 sacks exactly zero times in the past 3 seasons despite playing in all 16 in each of the last two. He was part of the best front 7 in football in 2018 and had 4 sacks in nearly 800 snaps. FOUR! 18.5 sacks in 4 seasons is a paltry number for a guy who has been a full time starter since day 1 (54 games, 54 starts). He’s no less limited than those other committee replacement type players you mention. Sacks are not everything, but they’re a BIG part of it, and he’s woefully inadequate in that regard. Floyd is well established at this point a guy who should be coming off the field regularly in obvious passing situations, or at minimum shifting inside. 

He does generate presser but I have already gone into this in other threads.

The idea of moving him inside is something I never thought about though and is worth at least some consideration. Although, I couldn't see him doing well trying to shed interior blockers in obvious run plays at this stage without putting on some weight.

1 hour ago, soulman said:

Unless there's further news from the NFL that will push back the beginning of the new league year due to the precautions all other major sports leagues are taking whatever Pace has decided about Floyd or will decide should be known pretty soon.

Teams are now shedding players they deem to pricey for their production and adding cap space so on Monday they can make their offers to whoever they have targeted as their primary FA prospects.  Pace could be waiting on the both the CBA vote on Saturday and on the possibility of an offer they may be planning to make on Monday before deciding.  Or, now that DT has been re-signed maybe they're reaching out to Floyd with an offer for an extension that will lower his cap costs.

The only thing I'm at least relatively certain of (maybe 80/20) is Pace won't keep him at his 5th year option cost.

Yep, teams were just waiting to see how the CBA played out before making any moves and all of the votes were submitted today so we will know more in the next 48 hours. 

They only have 5 days to decide whether or not to rescind on Floyd's contract. If they had any intentions on letting him go then they would have done it by now so that only leaves them two options; either a reconstructed contract or a trade, and I don't see Floyd having much trade value at all so that seems even less likely. 

20 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

They can explore the tampering period and see what else they can get with the Floyd money before having to actually commit to keeping him or letting him go. It only makes sense for them to do so. They could reasonably turn Floyd’s $13.2M in 2020 cap space into 2 or maybe 3 solid starters (depending on contract structure) and have it be a financial push. 

The tampering period is only for players set to be free agents and primarily UFA's. Floyd is currently under contract for the 2020 seasons so he is neither of them. 

[soulman]

8 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Yep, teams were just waiting to see how the CBA played out before making any moves and all of the votes were submitted today so we will know more in the next 48 hours. 

They only have 5 days to decide whether or not to rescind on Floyd's contract. If they had any intentions on letting him go then they would have done it by now so that only leaves them two options; either a reconstructed contract or a trade, and I don't see Floyd having much trade value at all so that seems even less likely. 

Not necessarily.  Owing the fact that we have no one on the roster to replace him it's a tough decision so waiting 'til all facts are known and weighing whether or not there may be a FA who can either replace him or supplement him before deciding also make sense to me.

I'd say the two least likely possibilities are Floyd accepting a salary cut and that there are any acceptable trade offers on the table.  Seems to me like the majority of the league feels he'll be released so why trade for him?  That's not to say some things may change during the next 5 days but so far I don't see Pace as having made an irrevocable decisions regarding Floyd.

[JAF-N72EX]

38 minutes ago, soulman said:

Not necessarily.  Owing the fact that we have no one on the roster to replace him it's a tough decision so waiting 'til all facts are known and weighing whether or not there may be a FA who can either replace him or supplement him before deciding also make sense to me.

I'd say the two least likely possibilities are Floyd accepting a salary cut and that there are any acceptable trade offers on the table.  Seems to me like the majority of the league feels he'll be released so why trade for him?  That's not to say some things may change during the next 5 days but so far I don't see Pace as having made an irrevocable decisions regarding Floyd.

What I meant by the part you highlighted was releasing him outright.  That was just poor wording on my part. 

At this point, it's leaning more towards Floyd taking a pay cut (maybe not even in the off season but during the regular season) because that is really the only option that benefits both parties. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by JustAnotherFan

[soulman]

37 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

What I meant by the part you highlighted was releasing him outright.  That was just poor wording on my part. 

At this point, it's leaning more towards Floyd taking a pay cut (maybe not even in the off season but during the regular season) because that is really the only option that benefits both parties. 

Ah....gotcha.

Can't help but thinking that Pace has approached him with some options for an extension which would seem to make the most sense for us since the gtd $$$ should be very little more than what he's now assured of making in 2020.  That would be at least one way to test his commitment to the Bears.

If Floyd has declined in lieu of wanting to test FA before agreeing to an extension I'd grant his wish but on my schedule not his meaning I would play it out as long as one minute to midnight on Tuesday before transmitting his release leaving my last offer to him on the table as I did it.  I sense another AJ kinda deal with him.

While it disturbs me that we haven't taken steps to shore up OLB giving us more leverage which may be the primary cause for Pace's hesitation it still seems odd to me that we would agree to pay him under that 5th year option.  Paces approach to this one has me a bit stumped.

[AZBearsFan]

9 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

The idea of moving him inside is something I never thought about though and is worth at least some consideration. Although, I couldn't see him doing well trying to shed interior blockers in obvious run plays at this stage without putting on some weight.

Was talking about only doing so in obvious passing situations. 3rd and long, 2nd and 20, 2-minute. Essentially valuing him in the pass game over our ILB2. Now that that’s gonna be DT and Roquan that’d be out anyway. 

[AZBearsFan]

9 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

The tampering period is only for players set to be free agents and primarily UFA's. Floyd is currently under contract for the 2020 seasons so he is neither of them. 

What I’m saying is that they can explore potential deals with other players. If they can strike something with the money due Floyd, they can rescind on Floyd and sign the other guy(s) with that money. If they don’t find such a deal or deals they can certainly still keep him.