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TL’s “One Year to Win” Forum Simulation Challenge


TL-TwoWinsAway

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1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

This was in his rules

So I am guessing as long as its only picks you are trading and within the parameters of the trade value chart, you should be ok. 

That's what I am laying out. It's only picks and my value is 40 points less than the offer that included #5 and #26. 

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KEY DECISIONS

#2 - Traded Darius Slay for #26 (+$10M)

#3 - Traded Marvin Jones for 6rp (+$6.5M)

#4 - Traded Jarrad Davis for 4rp (+$2M)

#9 - Traded #3 overall to Miami for #5, #39, #56 (Value of this offer is 2550 vs offer that included #26 and future 2nd at 2590)

10 - Snacks retires (Not 100% sure on how this impacts things)

RE-SIGN

Nobody

CUTS

Wagner (+$5M)

FREE AGENCY ($40M Cap + $18.5M = $63.5M)

Scherff, OG (-$10M)

Thuney, OG (-$4M)

Conklin, OT (-$14M)

Reader, DT (-$6M)

Armstead, DE (-$10M)

Ryan, CB (-$8M)

Darby, CB (-$5M)

McCourty, S (-$6M)

TOTAL = $63M Spent ($500k Remaining)

DRAFT

#5 - Jeffrey Okudah, CB

#26 - Kenneth Murray, LB

#35 - Jonathan Taylor, RB

#39 - Brandon Aiyuk, WR

#56 - Denzel Mims, WR

#67 - Jake Fromm, QB

4 - Edge

4 - TE

5 - S

5 - OL

6 - P

6 - DT

My overall strategy was to build up the trenches on both sides of the line and add more good players in place of one slightly better one. We'll see how this plays out. 

 

 

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Cap Space Beginning - 40M

Trades:

Trade Stafford to NE -3.5M

Trade Slay to Dolphins for 26, +10M

Trade Marvin to NE +6.5M

Trade Davis to Balt  +2M

Trade #3 to Jags for 9, 20, future 2nd

Trade #35 (550) to Atlanta for 55 (350) and 78 (200)

Trade 67 and a 7th for pick 66

Net +15M. Total 55M

Cuts:

Rick Wagner +5M

Snacks retires –5M

Romeo Okwara +2M

Cut Josh Garnett +1.2M

Net +3.2M Total cap 58.2M

Resign:

A’Shawn Robinson -4M

Graham Glasgow -8M

JD McKissic -.8M

Miles Kilebrew -.8M

Net -13.6M = 44.6M remaining

Free Agents:

Jack Conklin   -14M

Derek Wolfe  -6M

Ndamukong Suh  -6M

DJ Reader  -6M

Logan Ryan  -8M

Karl Joseph  -4M

Net 44M, .6M remaining

Draft:

Rd 1 pick 9 – Jerry Jeudy WR, Alabama

Rd 1 pick 20 – Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

Rd 1 pick 23 – CJ Henderson, CB Florida

Rd 1 pick 26 – Josh Jones, OT Houston

Rd 2 pick 55 – JK Dobbins, RB Ohio St.

Rd 3 pick 66 – Josh Uche, Edge/OLB Michigan

Rd 3 pick 78 – Michael Onwenu, OG Michigan

Rd 3 Pick 87 – Bradlee Anae, DE Utah

Rd 4 - CB

Rd 4 (Balt) - WR

Rd 5 - LB

Rd 6 - P

Rd 6 (Pats) - S

Depth Chart:

QB Justin Herbert, David Blough
RB JK Dobbins, Kerryon Johnson, JD McKissic, Ty Johnson, Bo Scarbrough
WR Kenny Golladay, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Hall, 4th Rd WR, Travis Fulgham
TE TJ Hockenson, Jesse James, Issac Nauta
LT Tyler Decker, Josh Jones
LG Michael Onwenu
C Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl
RG Graham Glasnow, Beau Benzschawel
RT Jack Conklin, Tyrell Crosby

LE Derek Wolf, Deshawn Hand
DT A'Shawn Robinson, DJ Reader
DT Ndamukong Suh, John Atkins, Kevin Strong
RE Tyler Flowers, Bradlee Anae, Austin Bryant
OLB Devon Kennard, Steven Longa, 5th rd LB
MLB Jalani Tavai, Christian Jones
OLB Josh Uche, Jalen Reeves Maybin
CB Logan Ryan, Armani Oruwaryie
CB CJ Henderson, Justin Coleman, 4th rd CB
S Karl Joseph, Will Harris
S Tracey Walker, Miles Killebrew, 6th rd S

K Matt Prater
P 6th rd rookie
LS Don Mulbach

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"I accepted Key Decisions #4, #7 and #9 option 1.

I re-signed Glasgow, Sam Martin, Danny Amendola, Rashaan Melvin, JD Mkissick

 

Harrison retired

I released Wagner

I signed Vic Beasley and DJ Reader in Free Agency.

I selected the following players in the draft:

1.5 – Jeffrey Okudah CB OSU

1.26 – Ross Blacklock DT TCU

2.3 - Trade for Trent Williams

3.3 – Ben Bredeson

4th Round WR

4th Round S

5th Round OL

6th Round DB

6th Round WR

7th Round LB

My strategy is way different since we have one year to win it.  I didn't emphasize youth, I emphasized experience.  So I went with the trade for Williams to sure up the OL.  My OL is now:

  • LT - Williams
  • LG - Ben Bredeson
  • C - Ragnow
  • RG - Glasgow
  • RT - Taylor Decker

In Free agency, I wanted to infuse the DL with more talent.  All and all it was a conservative approach due to bringing in Williams.  If this was a prepare for the future, I would do it completely different. I think the OL allows both the running and passing game to thrive.  Added pass rush (hopefully) with Beasley and Blacklock will help the strength of the D, the defensive backs.  I think the secondary causes more turnovers and the offensive line can either control the clock or allow Stafford to drive down field through passing.

Edited by LionArkie
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4 hours ago, LionArkie said:

Wow! I don't know if I'm smart enough for this!  This is tricky.  If I knew Kerryon would always be healthy, RB moves way down on the list for me.  Knowing what I know in real life, moves rb way up for me.  This will be interesting.

Yeah, the "no injury" aspect really changes things.

 

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

@TL-TwoWinsAway - Is there an option to have different Dolphins trade comp that doesn't include 26? Say, I want to trade Slay for #26 and still want to move down to #5?

Absolutely! Draft picks can be traded for other draft picks at will. The value has to match. (I believe you already posted one, so this response is probably irrelevant, but still going for it.)

 

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Also, @TL-TwoWinsAway for Snacks - is this out of the $40M or in addition to that overall? Say he retires, does this mean you're starting with $35M?

Yep. It was initially $30M to start, but I wanted to address the Snacks situation in a way such as this. I decided to bump up the starting cap space to reflect.

 

2 hours ago, LionArkie said:

I think Etienne is going back to school. not sure though.

Oh man. If so, I missed that one pretty badly. Ugh...

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

KEY DECISIONS

#9 - Traded #3 overall to Miami for #5, #39, #56 (Value of this offer is 2550 vs offer that included #26 and future 2nd at 2590)

I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, and I may not have been clear, but if you propose a draft pick for draft pick trade outside of the Key Decisions, it must fall within 50 points of trade value. The Offers Received in #9 are unique to this rule, as the other team has proposed that deal, which makes it exempt from the TVC.

You could remove #56 and fall almost exactly on the target, and could even have MIA toss in a 5th round pick if you'd like.

I'll have to hold off on completing your submission until I get feedback from you as to how this is resolved.

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2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Snacks retires – Unknown cap impacts

I tried to edit the post and make this clearer: if Snacks retires, it's a $5M Cap Hit (his dead cap). That leaves you unable to complete one signing, with $1.4M cap remaining prior to the Karl Joseph signing.

Let me know how you'd like to move forward and I'll run the sim.

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7 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I tried to edit the post and make this clearer: if Snacks retires, it's a $5M Cap Hit (his dead cap). That leaves you unable to complete one signing, with $1.4M cap remaining prior to the Karl Joseph signing.

Let me know how you'd like to move forward and I'll run the sim.

I ended up cutting Okwara and Garnett.  I may have to do another one of these with more focus on this year without injuries.  Spending a 1st on an OT wouldn't be the smartest move in a 1 year as I have him as a back up. But might be able to play OG in year 1. 

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3 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I ended up cutting Okwara and Garnett.  I may have to do another one of these with more focus on this year without injuries.  Spending a 1st on an OT wouldn't be the smartest move in a 1 year as I have him as a back up. But might be able to play OG in year 1. 

Perfect! The numbers match up and there are no additional issues. Sim results incoming.

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On 2/19/2020 at 12:56 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

*Attempt #1*

QB Justin Herbert, David Blough
RB JK Dobbins, Kerryon Johnson, JD McKissic, Ty Johnson, Bo Scarbrough
WR Kenny Golladay, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Hall, 4th Rd WR, Travis Fulgham
TE TJ Hockenson, Jesse James, Issac Nauta
LT Tyler Decker, Josh Jones
LG Michael Onwenu
C Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl
RG Graham Glasnow, Beau Benzschawel
RT Jack Conklin, Tyrell Crosby

LE Derek Wolf, Deshawn Hand
DT A'Shawn Robinson, DJ Reader
DT Ndamukong Suh, John Atkins, Kevin Strong
RE Trey Flowers, Bradlee Anae, Austin Bryant
OLB Devon Kennard, Steven Longa, 5th rd LB
MLB Jalani Tavai, Christian Jones
OLB Josh Uche, Jalen Reeves Maybin
CB Logan Ryan, Armani Oruwaryie
CB CJ Henderson, Justin Coleman, 4th rd CB
S Karl Joseph, Will Harris
S Tracey Walker, Miles Killebrew, 6th rd S

K Matt Prater
P 6th rd rookie

Woah! The Lions finished the regular season with a 9-7 record, won the NFC North and earned a wildcard game against the 49ers. (Unfortunately, they lost to the 49ers 28-26.) 16th offense, but the 6th best defense. Herbert ended the year with 23 TDs, 15 INTs and 4,162 yards, Dobbins racked up 883 and 11 TDs, Kerryon added 527 and 10 TDs, and Jeudy fell just short of 1,000 with 992 yards, scoring 5 TDs. (Hockenson had 9 TDs, leading the team.)

Herbert won OROY, and Henderson finished 5th in DROY voting.

Pretty good result.

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
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Starting Cap $40 Mil

Trades:

#2 – Trade Slay and a 4th to the Eagles for pick 21 (+10M)

#3 – Trade Marvin Jones for a 6th  (+6.5M)

#4 – Trade Jarrod Davis for a 4th (+2M)

#9 – Trade #3 to dolphins for 5, 26 and future 2nd

#10 Snacks retires (-5M)

My own – Trade pick 26 (700) to the Jets for picks 48 (420), 68 (250), and a 5th (50ish)

My own – Trade pick 35 (550) and pick 68 (250) to Miami for picks 39 (510) and 56 (340)

My own – Trade pick 56 (340) and pick 67 (255) to Seattle for pick 59 (310), pick 64 (270) and a 6th (30ish)

Net 13.5M increase, cap 53.5M

Cuts:

Rick Wagner (+5M)

Romeo Okwara (+2M)

Josh garnett (+1.2M)

Chris Lacy (+.5M)

Kevin Strong (+.6M)

Bo Scarbrough (+.5M)

Steve Longa (+.6M)

Net 10.4M increase, Cap 63.9M

Resign:

A’Shawn Robinson (-4M)

Miles Killebrew (-.8M)

Net 4.8 decrease, Cap 59.1M

Sign:

Jack Conklin (-14M)

Brandon Scherff (-10M)

Jadeveon Clowney (-23M)

Bradley Roby (-7.5M)

Karl Joseph (-4M)

Net 58.5M decrease, Cap  .6M

Draft:

1:5 – Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio St.

1:21 – Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma

2:39 (MIA) – Tyler Biadasz, OG Wisconsin

2:48 (NYJ) – Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

2:59 (SEA) – JK Dobbins, RB Ohio St

2:64 (SEA) – Josh Uche, OLB/DE Michigan

4 (Balt) - WR

5 - OT

5 (Jets) - OG

6 - LB

6 (NE) - P

7 – DT

Depth Chart:

QB: Matt Stafford, David Blough
RB: JK Dobbins, Kerryon Johnson, Ty Johnson
WR: Kenny Golladay, Justin Jefferson, 4th rd WR, Marvin Hall, Travis Fulgham
TE: TJ Hockenson, Jesse James, Isaac Nauta
LT: Taylor Decker, Tyrell Crosby
LG: Brandon Scherff, Josh Garnett
C Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl
RG: Tyler Biadasz, Beau Benzschawel
RT: Jack Conklin, 5th rd Rookie

DE: Jadeveon Clowney, Da’Shawn Hand
DT: Neville Gallimore, 7th rd DT
DT: A’Shawn Robinson, John Atkins
DE: Tyler Flowers, Austin Bryant
OLB: Devon Kenard, Jalen Reeves Maybin
MLB: Jalani Tavai, Christian Jones
OLB: Josh Uche, 6th rd LB
CB: Jeff Okudah, Amani Oruwariye
CB: Bradley Roby, Justin Coleman, Jamal Agnew
S: Karl Joseph, Will Harris
S: Tracey Walker, Miles Killebrew

K: Matt Prater
P: 6th rd Punter

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6 hours ago, LionArkie said:

"I accepted Key Decisions #4, #7 and #9 option 1.

I re-signed Glasgow, Sam Martin, Danny Amendola, Rashaan Melvin, JD Mkissick

 

Harrison retired

I released Wagner

I signed Vic Beasley and DJ Reader in Free Agency.

This looks good, but I've got you $1.8M over the cap. I've got it all mapped out, so once you let me know how you'd like to fix that (or if I made a mistake), I'll get this one done next.

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