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TL’s “One Year to Win” Forum Simulation Challenge


TL-TwoWinsAway

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9 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

We may need to address "why is TL going to bed for 9 am?" as well. 

Haha.

My wife gave birth to our 4th (and final) child one week ago, and I stay up at night to take care of those feedings so my wife can sleep. It's a pretty good system so far, but leaves me with hours of free time. Hence, this exercise.

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1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Haha.

My wife gave birth to our 4th (and final) child one week ago, and I stay up at night to take care of those feedings so my wife can sleep. It's a pretty good system so far, but leaves me with hours of free time. Hence, this exercise.

Congrats dude! That's awesome and good on you. This is a far better reason than what I was playing through in my head as possible reasons. 

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On 2/19/2020 at 11:31 AM, Karnage84 said:

*Attempt #1*

QB: Matthew Stafford, Jake Fromm
RB: Kerryon Johnson, Jonathan Taylor, Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson
FB: Nick Bawden
WR: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Hall
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James, Isaac Nauta
LT: Taylor Decker, Tyrell Crosby
LG: Joe Thuney, Joshua Garnett
C: Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl
RG: Brandon Scherff, Beau Benzschawel
RT: Jack Conklin, 5th Round Rookie
WR: Brandon Aiyuk, 4th Round Rookie, Chris Lacy

LE: Arik Armstead, Romeo Okwara
DT: D.J. Reader, 6th Round Rookie, John Atkins 
DT: Da'Shawn Hand, Kevin Strong
RE: Trey Flowers, Austin Bryant
OLB: Devon Kennard, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
MLB: Jahlani Tavai, Christian Jones
OLB: Kenneth Murray, Steve Longa 
CB: Logan Ryan, Jeffrey Okudah, Ronald Darby, Justin Coleman, Amani Oruwariye, Jamal Agnew 
FS: Devin McCourty, 5th Round Rookie
SS: Tracy Walker III, Will Harris

K: Matt Prater
P: 6th Round Rookie

Oh the pain...

This team finished 8-7-1, clearly not a great record, but the NFC North-winning Packers also finished 8-7-1. I looked over the season stats, and the Packers won the first meeting 27-17. The second meeting, during week 16, was a... tie. 29-29. Even worse, the Packers scored 18 points in the 4th quarter to push this into OT, and the Lions couldn't muster a Prater FG in extra time, missing the playoffs as a result. Pretty crazy.

The offense finished 18th in the league, and the defense finished 15th. Stafford ended the year with 3,922 passing yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs (three of those in that tie game against the Packers). Kerryon totaled 1,122 rushing yards and 8 TDs, and Jonathan Taylor added 381 yards and 8 TDs of his own. Golladay posted 923 yards and 6 TDs, while Aiyuk added 880 yards and a robust 9 scores. On defense, both Armstead and Flowers registered 11 sacks. No yearly awards were earned, Jacob Eason (woah) earning the NFC OROY and Isaiah Simmons walking away with the NFC DROY. (Okudah came in 5th.)

I'd say that it's hard to believe a week 16 tie against the Packers kept the Lions out of the playoffs, but I believe it completely. I really like grabbing Fromm in the 3rd round, the RB group is really good, and the OLine is great. I wish this team would've had a shot at the playoffs.

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
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So, I lied. I lied about taking a break from these. I've got hours left on my 'shift' tonight and, as each of these takes me just about an hour to complete, they keep me wide awake.

I also can't believe that, with this QB, this draft capital and this much cap space, I can't field a winner. It's time to call in the big guns.

"Starting Cap: $40

I accepted Key Decisions #3 (trade Jones to NE for their 6th, $6.5M Cap Savings), #4 (trade Davis to the Ravens for a 4th round pick, $2M Cap Savings) and #8 (trade the 3rd overall pick and a 4th round pick to the Jets for the 11th overall pick and Jamal Adams, $15M Cap Hit).

Current Cap: $33.5M

I released Rick Wagner ($5M Cap Savings) and Chris Lacy ($500K Cap Savings). Damon Harrison retired ($5M Cap Hit).

Current Cap: $34M

I signed Derrick Henry ($16M Cap Hit), Jack Conklin ($14M Cap Hit) and Joe Thuney ($4M Cap Hit) in free agency.

Current Cap: $0

Draft Picks:

1.11
2.35
3.67
4 (BAL)
5
6
6 (NE)
7

I traded the 35th overall pick (550) and BAL's 4th round pick to TB for the 45th overall pick (450) and the 76th overall pick (210).

I traded the 67th overall pick (255) to DEN for the 77th overall pick (205) and a 4th round pick.

I selected the following players in the draft:

1.11 - A.J. Epenesa
2.45 - Zach Baun
3.76 - Ben Bredeson 
3.77 - Collin Johnson
4 DT
5 CB
6 WR
6 LB
7 P
"

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19 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

*Attempt #4*

QB: Matthew Stafford, David Blough
RB: Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson
FB: Nick Bawden
WR: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Hall
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James, Isaac Nauta
LT: Taylor Decker, Tyrell Crosby
LG: Joe Thuney, Joshua Garnett
C: Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl
RG: Ben Bredeson, Beau Benzschawel
RT: Jack Conklin
WR: Collin Johnson, Travis Fulgham, 6th Round Rookie

LE: A.J. Epenesa, Romeo Okwara
DT: 4th Round Rookie, John Atkins 
DT: Da'Shawn Hand, Kevin Strong
RE: Trey Flowers, Austin Bryant
OLB: Devon Kennard, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
MLB: Jahlani Tavai, Christian Jones, 6th Round Rookie
OLB: Zach Baun, Steve Longa 
CB: Darius Slay, Justin Coleman, Amani Oruwariye, 5th Round Rookie, Jamal Agnew 
FS: Tracy Walker III, Will Harris
SS: Jamal Adams

K: Matt Prater
P: 7th Round Rookie

So close!

This team finished the regular season with a 10-6 record, earning a wildcard game against the Redskins. They won that game 21-17, then beat the Falcons 24-14 in the second round of the playoffs before losing to the Eagles 20-17 in the conference championship.

Tavai (somehow) finished 2nd in NFC DPOY voting, but finished 4th the NFC Best LB... not sure how that works. Baun finished 2nd in NFC DROY voting. (Epenesa was 4th.) The offense was 21st in yards, and the defense 13th. Stafford threw for 3,857 yards with 26 TDs and 5 INTs, Henry ran for 850 yards and 7 TDs (Kerryon with 505 and 8), and Golladay was 1 yard short with 999 receiving yards. I was concerned with the WR depth, but Collin Johnson and Hockenson both had decent seasons, and Marvin Hall racked up 857 yards of his own. Wow.

Flowers had 12.5 sacks, Epenesa added 10.5, and Tavai finished with 7. Both Slay and Adams had 3 INTs. Thuney, Conklin, Epenesa, Flowers, Tavai and Prater all made the Pro Bowl.

I really thought that the 88 overall Henry would have a far greater impact on this sim. Slightly disappointed that he didn't do... more.

Ah well.

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
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Going for it again. Because... tired.

"Starting Cap: $40

I accepted Key Decisions #3 (trade Jones to the Patriots for their 6th round pick, $6.5M Cap Savings), #7 (trade the 35th overall pick to the Redskins for Trent Williams, $14.5M Cap Hit) and #9.3 (trade the 3rd overall pick to the Panthers for the 7th overall pick, 38th overall pick and 69th overall pick).

I released Rick Wagner ($5M Cap Savings), Taylor Decker ($10M Cap Savings) and Damon Harrison retired ($5M Cap Hit).

Current Cap: $42M

I re-signed Graham Glasgow ($8M Cap Hit), A'Shawn Robinson ($4M Cap Hit) and Danny Amendola ($3M Cap Hit).

Current Cap: $27M

I signed Jack Conklin ($14M Cap Hit), Logan Ryan ($8M Cap Hit) and Ronald Darby ($5M Cap Hit) in free agency.

Current Cap: $0

I traded the future 1st round pick and a 4th round pick to TEN for the 29th overall pick. (It's time to get in front of the Packers for Shenault.)

I traded the 69th overall pick from CAR (245) to DEN for the 77th overall pick (205) and a 4th round pick.

Draft Picks:

1.7
1.29
2.38
3.67
3.77
4 (DEN)
5
6
6 (NE)
7

I selected the following players in the draft:

1.7 - Isaiah Simmons (SS)
1.29 - Laviska Shenault
2.38 - Curtis Weaver
3.67 - Jordan Elliott
3.77 - Ben Bredeson
4 - RB
5 - WR
6 - DT
6 - LB
7 - P

The OLine is insane, the secondary is nuts, the DLine is solid and the offensive weapons are good. Super Bowl or bust. Here we go."

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
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1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

*Attempt #5*

QB: Matthew Stafford, David Blough
RB: Kerryon Johnson, 4th Round Rookie, Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson
FB: Nick Bawden
WR: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Hall, 5th Round Rookie
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James, Isaac Nauta
LT: Trent Williams, Tyrell Crosby
LG: Graham Glasgow, Joshua Garnett
C: Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl
RG: Ben Bredeson, Beau Benzschawel
RT: Jack Conklin
WR: Laviska Shenault, Danny Amendola, Chris Lacy

LE: Curtis Weaver, Romeo Okwara
DT: A'Shawn Robinson, John Atkins, 6th Round Rookie
DT: Da'Shawn Hand, Jordan Elliott, Kevin Strong
RE: Trey Flowers, Austin Bryant
OLB: Devon Kennard, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
MLB: Jahlani Tavai, Christian Jones, 6th Round Rookie
OLB: Jarrad Davis, Steve Longa
CB: Darius Slay, Logan Ryan, Ronald Darby, Justin Coleman, Amani Oruwariye, Jamal Agnew 
FS: Tracy Walker III, Will Harris
SS: Isaiah Simmons

K: Matt Prater
P: 7th Round Rookie

Oh my. Just... wow.

Somehow, this roster went 5-11. I'm shocked that they could only muster 5 wins on the year. Ridiculous.

The trade down with the Panthers worked out well for both sides, as CAR went 13-3 with the NFC OROY Tua at QB, and Simmons won the NFC DROY. That's where the fun ends: despite having the 16th ranked offense and 2nd (!) ranked defense, the Lions finished with the 2nd fewest points per game. Stafford threw for 4,186 yards and 25 TDs (with 14 INTs), Kerryon rushed for 1,028 and 4 TDs, and the rookie added another 4. Golladay went for 1,020 yards and 6 TDs, but Shenault had an underwhelming 660 and 4. (Even Hockenson had 891 with 3.)

The sack totals were pretty low (Flowers leading the team with 6.5), and Simmons led the team with 4 INTs.

I've gotta stop.

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2 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

TL.......what an amazing amount of thought and hard work. 

This would get my vote for best topic and best post in my time on this forum.

Great job.

Wow. Thanks dhlf... I'm speechless. I really appreciate it. 

I just thought it would be a fun exercise for members of the forum to jump in and mock together. So far, it has been awesome to see the different strategies and successes.

I can't wait to see which participant and team pulls off the first Super Bowl.

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1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Wow. Thanks dhlf... I'm speechless. I really appreciate it. 

I just thought it would be a fun exercise for members of the forum to jump in and mock together. So far, it has been awesome to see the different strategies and successes.

I can't wait to see which participant and team pulls off the first Super Bowl.

Credit where credit is due. It’s new, it’s novel, it took allot of work.

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