Brad Biggs: On the QB Position

[Sugashane]

1 minute ago, Heinz D. said:

Totally jumbled. WTF? 

I'm just glad that means it isn't my laptop. Wow. Either the forum really liked or hated my comment to you man. lol

[Bigbear72]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

^^^^^ Does my post look completely jumbled and weird to anyone else? It's like my comment freaked out while posting. lol

Yeah, it's a hot mess.

[Heinz D.]

1 minute ago, Sugashane said:

I'm just glad that means it isn't my laptop. Wow. Either the forum really liked or hated my comment to you man. lol

I pieced through it mostly, I think. You do have a good point. It may be easier to trade for Lawrence next year anyway, as a lot of teams/people will be set in their QB selections (from this year). That's another year off Mack, though. And a further crippling of draft capital. And who knows what will happen? The Bears could go 9-7, Pace could be retained, and he could give Trubisky an absolutely monstrous contract. 

Nothing would surprise me at this point, except what I absolutely think should happen this off-season...

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I'm at the point of looking to building the rest of the team around the 2021 QB. Mitch isn't a bad guy and he sure as hell didn't get a lot of help, but his ceiling is too low to be worth investing in. 

Pace is going all-in against house odds if he determined to force Tru to be his starter this year, and it isn't a good bet IMO. It's one that likely costs him his job and Nagy might lose his as well.

See I think it’s the opposite with Mitch - the only reason to stay the course is because he does have a high ceiling. The likelihood it’s realized seems much smaller than it did 12 months ago but it’s still there. 

Loading up around Mitch for 2020 and building the team around a potential 2021 move to the next future franchise QB is basically doing the same thing though.

When Pace picks up Mitch’s 5th year option people are going to absolutely freak. Unless they decide at the outset of FA that he’s being relegated to #2 for 2020 I can’t see how they don’t do it. If he proves even worthy of a 5th season without an extension (plausible) the option will be several million lower than the franchise tag next offseason, and if he’s not they rescind it and he goes to UFA with no negative impact. The risk of an injury that would trigger the injury guarantee for 2021 in a situation where he’s not going to be on the roster in 2021 already is a reasonably low risk. 

[Heinz D.]

59 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

See I think it’s the opposite with Mitch - the only reason to stay the course is because he does have a high ceiling. The likelihood it’s realized seems much smaller than it did 12 months ago but it’s still there. 

Really? Why do you feel that he does?

59 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Loading up around Mitch for 2020 and building the team around a potential 2021 move to the next future franchise QB is basically doing the same thing though.

Not really. If you don't look for potential alternatives this year, you're scrambling next year. Granted, we're talking about a single pick, or signing, but when you have the limited resources the Bears have, that's all you can reasonably be looking at. 

[AZBearsFan]

22 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Really? Why do you feel that he does?

Not really. If you don't look for potential alternatives this year, you're scrambling next year. Granted, we're talking about a single pick, or signing, but when you have the limited resources the Bears have, that's all you can reasonably be looking at. 

Mitch doesn’t have a high ceiling if he puts it all together? Come on, man. Don’t be ridiculous. The physical tools are all there. Him not having put it together yet (and maybe never putting it all together) doesn’t change that. Also, I didn’t say building around Mitch for 2020 with added skill players meant NOT also looking for potential alternatives. The two things are not mutually exclusive. 

[beardown3231]

3 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I'd slot Purdy as the third. With the others wherever. They most likely won't all be top 50 picks. 

This year we have Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts, Eason, Fromm, Gordon, and Stanley. Five of them will likely be top 50 picks. There will probably be four first round quarterbacks this draft. There probably won't be next draft. 

That was no particular order. It's easy to spout off 10 QB's. I can do the same for 2021. Hurts, Fromm, Stanley and Gordon all stink and are all 4th-6th round prospects, especially Stanley and Gordon (Fromm and Hurts will go earlier but neither are good). Every year people say the same thing you did about the next QB class- gotta get one now because who knows about next spring! 2021 is loaded with good prospects at the position. The Bears are fine waiting, especially since they seem to be stuck in Trubisky lala land

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

That was no particular order. It's easy to spout off 10 QB's. I can do the same for 2021. Hurts, Fromm, Stanley and Gordon all stink and are all 4th-6th round prospects, especially Stanley and Gordon (Fromm and Hurts will go earlier but neither are good). Every year people say the same thing you did about the next QB class- gotta get one now because who knows about next spring! 2021 is loaded with good prospects at the position. The Bears are fine waiting, especially since they seem to be stuck in Trubisky lala land

Looking a year ahead or even further seldom ends up playing out like you expect anyway. Christian Hackenburg and Fromm were both thought to be potential #1 overall picks after their freshman years, and Burrow wasn’t even part of the conversation this time last year. 

[WindyCity]

Mitch's ceiling is high because when he is on, he makes a lot of plays. His high end games are him going off on teams like Dallas and Detroit.

The issue is that between those game she sinks too low.

Way too much variance.

[Sugashane]

14 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

See I think it’s the opposite with Mitch - the only reason to stay the course is because he does have a high ceiling. The likelihood it’s realized seems much smaller than it did 12 months ago but it’s still there. 

Loading up around Mitch for 2020 and building the team around a potential 2021 move to the next future franchise QB is basically doing the same thing though.

When Pace picks up Mitch’s 5th year option people are going to absolutely freak. Unless they decide at the outset of FA that he’s being relegated to #2 for 2020 I can’t see how they don’t do it. If he proves even worthy of a 5th season without an extension (plausible) the option will be several million lower than the franchise tag next offseason, and if he’s not they rescind it and he goes to UFA with no negative impact. The risk of an injury that would trigger the injury guarantee for 2021 in a situation where he’s not going to be on the roster in 2021 already is a reasonably low risk. 

To me I have much less faith in him to be an average starting quarterback then I did a year ago. If everything worked together then yeah he's going to be a complete stud. Plenty of arm strength , plus athleticism, he's got some of the ability to make wow plays that we've seen in big situations that shows enough to keep you interested, etc. He has plenty of elite quarterback traits or at least franchise level quarterback traits. But his inability to show consistent accuracy and to produce at any respectful rate has dropped him off the map for me. That's what has dropped him to being a high-end backup to me.

I'll say the same thing I did about McClellan though, I'm rooting for him and seriously hope he makes me eat my words. I'd be happy to have a lifetime sig showing that I look like an idiot for doubting him. 

I agree if the fifth year option is going to be picked up that people will freak. I personally am going to be disappointed too. So regardless if it would be the regular franchise tag or not it's still $22 million plus for the quarterbacks. You save only about two or three million I believe from the regular franchise tag. To me that just waste means you're wasting two or three million dollars less, the still making a terrible decision if he plays under that. As you said they may just hold him there and then release him later at no cost, but I'd be tense until they did

[abstract_thought]

Simply put: having elite physical traits is not what makes elite NFL QBs.

Mitch is so underwhelming in areas like improvisation, decision-making, and coverage-reading that it would take a near-impossible improvement for him to be elite.

[WindyCity]

14 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Simply put: having elite physical traits is not what makes elite NFL QBs.

Mitch is so underwhelming in areas like improvisation, decision-making, and coverage-reading that it would take a near-impossible improvement for him to be elite.

I disagree. He is better out of structure.

[topwop1]

19 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Simply put: having elite physical traits is not what makes elite NFL QBs.

Mitch is so underwhelming in areas like improvisation, decision-making, and coverage-reading that it would take a near-impossible improvement for him to be elite.

I don't think he's bad at improvising.  We've seen multiple times him make plays on the run when things break down in the pocket. 

I also believe a QB can improve his understanding of different coverages and how to read them with more study and game experience.  Processing speed is a different topic altogether though.

As for decision making, I believe it is more of an innate trait that is harder to correct, but again I don't think that Mitch generally makes bad decisions with the football from what we've seen.  He also wasn't known for being careless with the ball in college.

To sum it up, I believe all the things you are saying can be improved without being highly improbable.

Now if we were talking about things such as correcting accuracy, athleticism or arm talent then I would tend to agree with you that those are highly improbable to fix for any player, you either have it or you don't, but those other areas you speak about are very correctable.

Edited February 20, 2020 by topwop1

[WindyCity]

9 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I don't think he's bad at improvising.  We've seen multiple times him make plays on the run when things break down in the pocket. 

I also believe a QB can improve his understanding of different coverages and how to read them with more study and game experience.  Processing speed is a different topic altogether though.

As for decision making, I believe it is more of an innate trait that is harder to correct, but again I don't think that Mitch generally makes bad decisions with the football from what we've seen.  He also wasn't known for being careless with the ball in college.

To sum it up, I believe all the things you are saying can be improved without being highly improbable.

Now if we were talking about things such as correcting accuracy, athleticism or arm talent then I would tend to agree with you that those are highly improbable to fix for any player, you either have it or you don't, but those other areas you speak about are very correctable.

Decision making and processing is his biggest weakness.

Make him do less.

You think that Jimmy G is processing a ton when they go heavy play action and have 2 guys running routes? It is okay to ask your QB to do less, it is not ideal, but it the reality of 75% of the NFL.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

28 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Simply put: having elite physical traits is not what makes elite NFL QBs.

Mitch is so underwhelming in areas like improvisation, decision-making, and coverage-reading that it would take a near-impossible improvement for him to be elite.

Like my fine colleagues above, I agree that he is bad at reading coverages to the point where I would bet against him in a game of "how many fingers am I holding up" but the one thing that has always impressed me is his ability to streetball when the play breaks down, he escapes the pocket, and throws a dart to someone who probably wasn't even an option on the play called. It's usually within the last minute of the game it seems, and prompts everyone in the bar to say "now where the **** was that for the last 58 minutes?"