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Bolts223

How would the 7-2 matchups of the last decade have gone?

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I think it's fair to say that in all (or almost all) of these cases the 2-seed would be favored, but I don't think it's as big a slam dunk for a lot of them as people think.

2010

AFC: #7 Chargers at #2 Steelers

This was the infamous team that finished with the #1 offense and defense and somehow still missed the playoffs. Despite that they were still at a +119 point differential and a very good 9-7 team. I don't think it's fair to outright pick them to beat this Steelers team with it's elite defense, but I don't think this game is by any means a slam dunk.

NFC: #7 Giants at #2 Bears

This game is honestly close to a toss-up. This Bears team is maybe the worst team to ever get a Bye, and this Giants team went 10-6 and missed the playoffs. This is also very similar to the Giants team that won the SB the next year.

 

2011

AFC: #7 Titans at #2 Ravens: I think the Ravens would have to be the pretty heavy favorite here. I don't know that much about this Titans team though.

NFC: #7 Bears at #2 49ers: The 49ers would also have to be a pretty heavy favorite here.

 

2012

AFC: #7 Steelers at #2 Patriots: This game would be a massacre.

NFC: #7 Bears at #2 49ers: This game could be interesting. This was a pretty solid Bears team. 10-6, +98 point differential.

 

2013

AFC: #7 Steelers at #2 Patriots: Maybe not quite as bad as it would've been the year before, but the Patriots would still pretty easily handle the Steelers.

NFC: #7 Cardinals at #2 Panthers: This is a game that would be very interesting. This Cardinals team was 10-6 and extremely good. Panthers were pretty meh for a Bye team.

 

2014

AFC: #7 Texans at #2 Broncos: Peyton Manning had declined by the playoffs this year but I still think the Broncos beat this team pretty easily.

NFC: #7 Eagles at #2 Packers: This was a pretty damn good Eagles team, but this Packers team was elite and I'd have to think they'd win without too much difficulty.

 

2015

AFC: #7 Jets at #2 Patriots: This would be a really interesting game. The Jets beat the Patriots in week 16 this season which ultimately ended up costing the Patriots the 1-seed.

NFC: #7 Falcons at #2 Cardinals: Maybe not as much as a blowout as many think since Arizona wasn't playing that well by the end of the season, but I do still think the Cardinals would win.

 

2016

AFC: #7 Titans at #2 Chiefs: I think the Chiefs would win, but the Titans pulling off the upset here isn't entirely unthinkable.

NFC: #7 Bucs at #2 Falcons: Falcons would completely destroy the Bucs.

 

2017

AFC: #7 Ravens at #2 Steelers: Honestly this would be a very good game. The Ravens probably deserved to be in the playoffs over the Bills and Titans that year, and this is a bitter rivalry where the games are always tough and close. Also playoff Flacco.

NFC: #7 Lions at #2 Vikings: Maybe not a complete slam dunk, but I think the Vikings would win.

 

2018

AFC: #7 Steelers at #2 Patriots: It's interesting. Normally the Patriots totally own the Steelers but they did beat the Pats week 15 this season. At the same time - the Patriots were playing like garbage at that point in the season. I'd have to imagine with how they played in the playoffs that they'd learn from the film and manhandle the Steelers this time around.

NFC: #7 Vikings at #2 Rams: I think the Rams would probably win fairly comfortably.

 

2019

AFC: #7 Steelers at #2 Chiefs: The Chiefs would completely destroy the Steelers.

NFC: #7 Rams at #2 Packers: I think that this would be interesting. Packers were a weak 13-3 and the Rams were a strong 9-7. I still think the Packers would win because a) They were the better team and b) A warm weather west coast team going into Wisconsin in January to play the Packers isn't likely to end well.

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Rams weren't that much worse than GB this past year in my opinion. Though Goff is a different QB in the cold. Unless it was an unseasonably warm January day in GB I think GB probably wins easily. 

I'm not sure any 7 seed wins in the last few years. Though the extra game probably impacts the future of those 2 seed teams. 

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5 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

Rams weren't that much worse than GB this past year in my opinion. Though Goff is a different QB in the cold. Unless it was an unseasonably warm January day in GB I think GB probably wins easily. 

I'm not sure any 7 seed wins in the last few years. Though the extra game probably impacts the future of those 2 seed teams. 

I think the Ravens beating the Steelers in 2017 wouldn't have been surprising at all.

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2 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

I think the Ravens beating the Steelers in 2017 wouldn't have been surprising at all.

I wouldn't say I'd be shocked. But they played twice that year with Steelers winning both. 1 game was close and 1 wasn't. Steelers are probably at least a TD favorite in that game. 

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steelers defense was a mess with shazier out in 2017. I can see the Ravens doing what they want on offense while the defense slows our offense down just enough to win

I think the steelers could beat NE in 2018, but they seem to forget how to function when they play at NE. I would still favor NE

KC might of given the steelers the franchise worse playoff lose..no thanks to that.

Edited by August4th

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1 hour ago, August4th said:

KC might of given the steelers the franchise worse playoff lose..no thanks to that.

At least you guys would have been up a couple TDs early. 

Edited by Piquel

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9 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

AFC: #7 Texans at #2 Broncos: Peyton Manning had declined by the playoffs this year but I still think the Broncos beat this team pretty easily.

One aside on this - people say that JJ Watt didn't win MVP this season because his team didn't make the playoffs. I wonder if getting in as a 7 seed changes that narrative.

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9 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

2019

NFC: #7 Rams at #2 Packers: I think that this would be interesting. Packers were a weak 13-3 and the Rams were a strong 9-7. I still think the Packers would win because a) They were the better team and b) A warm weather west coast team going into Wisconsin in January to play the Packers isn't likely to end well.

McVay would have beaten Lafleur. Weakest #2 seed in recent memory. Rams would of won. 

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Most years, this match-up looks fairly competitive on paper for at least one conference. A lot of these 7-seeds (outside of outliers like the 2015 Jets and 2016 Bucs) are successful regimes experiencing a down (by their standards) year. Steelers v. Pats three times though? Yuck.

 

Its funny, I actually would have preferred the 8-seed making the playoffs for the NFC 2012 (defending champion Giants) and both conferences in 2017 (Chargers with an +80ish point differential, and 9-7 Seahawks (only year Wilson has missed the playoffs)).

Edited by Slingin' Sammy

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I'd say about 75% of the time the #2 seed wins easily. 

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12 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

 

2016

AFC: #7 Titans at #2 Chiefs: I think the Chiefs would win, but the Titans pulling off the upset here isn't entirely unthinkable.

NFC: #7 Bucs at #2 Falcons: Falcons would completely destroy the Bucs.

 

2017

AFC: #7 Ravens at #2 Steelers: Honestly this would be a very good game. The Ravens probably deserved to be in the playoffs over the Bills and Titans that year, and this is a bitter rivalry where the games are always tough and close. Also playoff Flacco.

NFC: #7 Lions at #2 Vikings: Maybe not a complete slam dunk, but I think the Vikings would win.

 

On the 2016 game: Chiefs would be favored, for sure, but the Titans beat them in the playoffs the next year (2017), and they were similar teams.  Could have made a good matchup.

As for 2017, I don't think you can really say the Titans didn't deserve to be there when they won their first game with a 20 something point comeback.

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4 hours ago, Daniel said:

On the 2016 game: Chiefs would be favored, for sure, but the Titans beat them in the playoffs the next year (2017), and they were similar teams.  Could have made a good matchup.

As for 2017, I don't think you can really say the Titans didn't deserve to be there when they won their first game with a 20 something point comeback.

I didn't say they didn't deserve to be there.

I'm just saying that I think that both the Ravens and Chargers were better teams than the Titans/Bills but the Titans/Bills just happened to have better conference records. Chargers and Ravens both had like +70 point differentials while the Bills/Titans were well in the negative.

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On 2/21/2020 at 11:21 AM, Daniel said:

On the 2016 game: Chiefs would be favored, for sure, but the Titans beat them in the playoffs the next year (2017), and they were similar teams.  Could have made a good matchup.

As for 2017, I don't think you can really say the Titans didn't deserve to be there when they won their first game with a 20 something point comeback.

The Chiefs lost to the Titans in the 2016 regular season as well. 

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