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Salary Cap Ramifications of new 17 Game Schedule


MKnight82

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So I was wondering what the impact of the new 17 game schedule could do to the salary cap.  I did some rough math and tried to make a projection of what it could look like.  If anyone has any recommendations on how to improve the math please point it out.  

Cap Increase
188.2  
177.2 6.208%
167 6.108%
155.27 7.555%
143.28 8.368%
133 7.729%
123 8.130%
120.3 2.244%
120 0.250%

 

This has been the salary cap every year since the last CBA negotiation.  The past 6 years the cap has generally been increasing anywhere from 6-8%.  So a general projection for next year's cap would probably look like this: 

0.06 199.492
0.08 203.256

 

If they just left everything alone it should probably be somewhere around 200-204 million next year.  

Lets take the more conservative $200 mil figure and apply it to the new 17 game schedule.  

Adjustd Salary Cap 200
Salary Cap for all 32 Teams 6400
Player's Current Share 0.47
Projected 2019 NFL Revenue 13617.0
Revenue Per Game (16) 851.1
Revenue times 17 Games 14468.1
Player's Share at 48.5% 7017.0
Projected Salary Cap 219.3

 

I took the 200 mil, multiplied it by 32 NFL teams, then divided by the player's current share of 47% to project current revenue of $13.6ish billion.  The article below has the NFL claiming to have made around $15ish billion, so my number is pretty close.  

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ct-spt-nfl-revenue-super-bowl-20190128-story.html

Then I divided total revenue by 16 games to get to revenue per game.  Then just multiple that number by the new 17 game structure.  Finally, multiply by the new player's share, 48.5%, and you end up around $219-220 mil in cap.  

Now obviously there are flaws here.  The NFL gets revenue from everywhere, including a lot of items like merchandising that might not necessarily increase from an additional game.  But I think this is pretty close.  

 

Thoughts? 

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4 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

So I was wondering what the impact of the new 17 game schedule could do to the salary cap.  I did some rough math and tried to make a projection of what it could look like.  If anyone has any recommendations on how to improve the math please point it out.  

Cap Increase
188.2  
177.2 6.208%
167 6.108%
155.27 7.555%
143.28 8.368%
133 7.729%
123 8.130%
120.3 2.244%
120 0.250%

 

This has been the salary cap every year since the last CBA negotiation.  The past 6 years the cap has generally been increasing anywhere from 6-8%.  So a general projection for next year's cap would probably look like this: 

0.06 199.492
0.08 203.256

 

If they just left everything alone it should probably be somewhere around 200-204 million next year.  

Lets take the more conservative $200 mil figure and apply it to the new 17 game schedule.  

Adjustd Salary Cap 200
Salary Cap for all 32 Teams 6400
Player's Current Share 0.47
Projected 2019 NFL Revenue 13617.0
Revenue Per Game (16) 851.1
Revenue times 17 Games 14468.1
Player's Share at 48.5% 7017.0
Projected Salary Cap 219.3

 

I took the 200 mil, multiplied it by 32 NFL teams, then divided by the player's current share of 47% to project current revenue of $13.6ish billion.  The article below has the NFL claiming to have made around $15ish billion, so my number is pretty close.  

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ct-spt-nfl-revenue-super-bowl-20190128-story.html

Then I divided total revenue by 16 games to get to revenue per game.  Then just multiple that number by the new 17 game structure.  Finally, multiply by the new player's share, 48.5%, and you end up around $219-220 mil in cap.  

Now obviously there are flaws here.  The NFL gets revenue from everywhere, including a lot of items like merchandising that might not necessarily increase from an additional game.  But I think this is pretty close.  

 

Thoughts? 

I did similar rough math and got ~221M for 2020,  $231,256,000 in 2021. I started with at $201M for default in 2020 though rather than 200. So that'd explain the main difference 

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Projected 200M Cap this year.

Multiply by 17/16s to get the 17 game amount

Multilply by 48.5/47 for the % increase. 

Then multiply by 1.05 to project a conservative 5% increase in funds coming in. 

 

The cap would go up to 231 M in 2021 after being 200M in 2020. That's 31 more million for everyone. Before carryover or anything else.

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13 hours ago, DigInBoys said:

 

Yeah, the players are going to push for literally everything to go up.

One more game would mean one more game check of exactly the same amount as their normal game checks. The League is going to be lucky if they can get out of this idea without writing checks to make up for signing bonus differences. 

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Did something similar here. You need to take into account the new TV deals ... I came up with something like 226 M$ at the lower end.
League already announced the 2020 cap will be 198 - 201 M$.

However, I thought (read?) the current players' share is 48% - going up to 49.5% (and potentially to 50%) under the new CBA.

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16 hours ago, theJ said:

Are they going to renegotiate the deals before this takes place? I have a feeling that plays a major factor. Ticket sales alone aren't going to close the gap. 

FWIW, I believe the television contracts had options written into them for an addition of a 17 and 18 game season. 

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