I Have A Serious Question

[soulman]

As badly as we need to address the QB position this offseason given our other needs to draft younger talent for the DB, OLB/Edge, OL, and possibly TE are there any QBs who might fall into round two even worth the gamble at that level vs bringing in a vet via trade or FA and drafting one later or not at all?

I'm really not all that up on any of these guys not having seen much college ball last fall but I have to wonder whether or not what I've read about this QB crop being very average at best with most having a number of question marks isn't true.  Teams will overdraft some of them purely out of need but is that wise for us to do?

I don't deny the need to add younger talent at QB as well but is this the year to do it when we're far more fixated on getting Mitch "fixed" and also bringing in some competition to both push him or to replace him if he once again fails to progress?  It seems to me "Flip" will have his hands full working with Mitch and if that competition is a guy like Mariota he'll need four hands instead of two because he'll have two guys to "fix".

My sense of it is it's like there's a huge cloud hanging over the QB position right now and Pace seems committed to clearing that away as it relates to Mitch once and for all.  By the end of 2021 we should all know whether or not Mitch Trubisky is "the guy" we can pin our hopes on or not.  Once that cloud has been lifted and we have a full compliment of draft picks back it would seem to be much easier to decide how to proceed at QB.

Who we may draft in 2021 would be based on Mitch's success or failure and whatever or whoever we have as our other QB.  Will we need a top prospect we may even need to trade up to draft or can we lay back and take a kid whose gonna need 2-3 to develop or someone in between?  To me this is getting almost like the Cutler years.  Until we decide what to do with who we have how do we decide how to move on and with who?

So that's my question for you all.

Edited February 26, 2020 by soulman

[The_Romen]

3 hours ago, soulman said:

As badly as we need to address the QB position this offseason given our other needs to draft younger talent for the DB, OLB/Edge, OL, and possibly TE are there any QBs who might fall into round two even worth the gamble at that level vs bringing in a vet via trade or FA and drafting one later or not at all?

I'm really not all that up on any of these guys not having seen much college ball last fall but I have to wonder whether or not what I've read about this QB crop being very average at best with most having a number of question marks isn't true.  Teams will overdraft some of them purely out of need but is that wise for us to do? I don't ever agree with the drafting out of need, I prefer taking BPA. If the Bears had a set starter that was set to leave/retire, different story. 

I don't deny the need to add younger talent at QB as well but is this the year to do it when we're far more fixated on getting Mitch "fixed" and also bringing in some competition to both push him or to replace him if he once again fails to progress?  It seems to me "Flip" will have his hands full working with Mitch and if that competition is a guy like Mariota he'll need four hands instead of two because he'll have two guys to "fix". May as well give Mitch as many weapons and coaches as possible, then he has no excuses and if he succeeds, stick with him. If he looks like 2019, can him. We don't have many options with him and I doubt he has a big trade market.

Who we may draft in 2021 would be based on Mitch's success or failure and whatever or whoever we have as our other QB.  Will we need a top prospect we may even need to trade up to draft or can we lay back and take a kid whose gonna need 2-3 to develop or someone in between?  To me this is getting almost like the Cutler years.  Until we decide what to do with who we have how do we decide how to move on and with who? I like what the Ravens did... They took Flacco late in the first and surrounded him with an amazing OL, defense and run game. Won a Superbowl. They took Jackson late in the first, surrounded him with great weapons (Hollywood, Ingram, Andrews, Hurst) and again, a solid to very good defense. Got deep in the playoffs and an MVP QB. They've also adapted and tailored their offense around these guys. Consistency is key, but adaptation is crucial.

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by The_Romen

[soulman]

21 hours ago, The_Romen said:

Who we may draft in 2021 would be based on Mitch's success or failure and whatever or whoever we have as our other QB.  Will we need a top prospect we may even need to trade up to draft or can we lay back and take a kid whose gonna need 2-3 to develop or someone in between?  To me this is getting almost like the Cutler years.  Until we decide what to do with who we have how do we decide how to move on and with who? I like what the Ravens did... They took Flacco late in the first and surrounded him with an amazing OL, defense and run game. Won a Superbowl. They took Jackson late in the first, surrounded him with great weapons (Hollywood, Ingram, Andrews, Hurst) and again, a solid to very good defense. Got deep in the playoffs and an MVP QB. They've also adapted and tailored their offense around these guys. Consistency is key, but adaptation is crucial.

This is another one of the questions to be tackled.

Is the objective to build a team around Mitch he can win big with or is the objective to get Mitch to fit Nagy's offensive scheme?

I may have been unsure of that year one but last year confirmed that Nagy wants him to fit his offense which I believe runs somewhat counter to Mitch's instincts and sets up the conflicts we see week in and week out.  Even Nagy's most recent comments about how he expects Mitch to show up prepared tell me that Nagy wants Mitch to see the field as he sees it and see the reads as he sees them.

What the Ravens did would seem to be the polar opposite of what we're doing.

As I've already posted Mitch lacks nothing in physical ability to play at this level.  We've all seen that.  But it's clear to me that certain game plans and scheming are really quite foreign to him.  Even if he can speak it and diagram it for you he still can't seem grasp it instinctively so while he's seeing something and thinking one thing Nagy's scheme and coaching is telling him to see something else and respond to that. Confusion appears, he thinks and fails to respond quickly enough and the play as called and schemed ends up breaking down and fails. 

I know the jury is still out on this but there is that possibility that the real problem is Mitch is not the right QB for THIS offense.  Maybe we can start calling this type of thing "The Tannehill Syndrome". LOL    A guy struggles as a somewhat average QB with his original team for 6 years, gets traded, and boom nearly takes his team to a Super Bowl year one.  We should remember that Pace drafted Mitch first then hired Nagy.  So.....to complete my thought this is why I'd prefer not to push the button on another QB high draft pick quite yet.  Take your time especially with this new coaching staff just coming on board.  And if the problem does seem to be that Mitch is never gonna fit this scheme and we can't alter it enough to make it work for him then Nagy and his guys need to select their own QB and not Pace.  JMHO

Edited February 27, 2020 by soulman

[The_Romen]

7 hours ago, soulman said:

Is the objective to build a team around Mitch he can win big with or is the objective to get Mitch to fit Nagy's offensive scheme? I think Pace is hitching himself to Trubs and if he looks awful this year, he'll get canned along with Trubs. It's a make or break year. Nagy will get more time, but Pace has had more than enough time to turn things around and while he's done good stuff, he has nothing to show for it.

I may have been unsure of that year one but last year confirmed that Nagy wants him to fit his offense which I believe runs somewhat counter to Mitch's instincts and sets up the conflicts we see week in and week out.  Even Nagy's most recent comments about how he expects Mitch to show up prepared tell me that Nagy wants Mitch to see the field as he sees it and see the reads as he sees them. Nagy needs to have a little sympathy and understand that Mitch had barely any experience with as few college games as he played, and his crap supporting cast in 2017. And then Nagy tried to force him into being a pocket passer for some reason in 2019. This year there should be no excuses, year 3 in the system, chemistry with his receivers... Hopefully Nagy adjusts and let's him run around a little bit.

What the Ravens did would seem to be the polar opposite of what we're doing. Yes and no... I think they just do a better job of being consistent and putting their QB in the best position to succeed.

I know the jury is still out on this but there is that possibility that the real problem is Mitch is not the right QB for THIS offense.  Maybe we can start calling this type of thing "The Tannehill Syndrome". LOL    A guy struggles as a somewhat average QB with his original team for 6 years, gets traded, and boom nearly takes his team to a Super Bowl year one.  We should remember that Pace drafted Mitch first then hired Nagy.  So.....to complete my thought this is why I'd prefer not to push the button on another QB high draft pick quite yet.  Take your time especially with this new coaching staff just coming on board.  And if the problem does seem to be that Mitch is never gonna fit this scheme and we can't alter it enough to make it work for him then Nagy and his guys need to select their own QB and not Pace.  JMHO Agree

 

[Heinz D.]

13 hours ago, soulman said:

As badly as we need to address the QB position this offseason given our other needs to draft younger talent for the DB, OLB/Edge, OL, and possibly TE are there any QBs who might fall into round two even worth the gamble at that level vs bringing in a vet via trade or FA and drafting one later or not at all?

There will most likely be QBs available at either of their second picks that are worth those slots--according to the majority of talent evaluators out there. It would be fairly painless to trade up into the first (some of that capital being expended next year) to get an even better QB option. There is a chance there will be a guy or two that is WELL worth their fourth round pick as well--guys who could actually maybe become starters at some point. 

I'd be shocked if they did any of that, though. 

[The_Romen]

52 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

There will most likely be QBs available at either of their second picks that are worth those slots--according to the majority of talent evaluators out there. It would be fairly painless to trade up into the first (some of that capital being expended next year) to get an even better QB option. There is a chance there will be a guy or two that is WELL worth their fourth round pick as well--guys who could actually maybe become starters at some point. 

I'd be shocked if they did any of that, though. 

Is the priority to see what that QB has and can develop to be? Is that more important than drafting weapons now and helping out what we have now? I would rather Pace spend the draft going with what we know for now, instead of mortgaging more cheap contracts for a bigger unknown, even though QB is obviously the most important position.

[Heinz D.]

8 minutes ago, The_Romen said:

Is the priority to see what that QB has and can develop to be? Is that more important than drafting weapons now and helping out what we have now? I would rather Pace spend the draft going with what we know for now, instead of mortgaging more cheap contracts for a bigger unknown, even though QB is obviously the most important position.

Clarify? 

[The_Romen]

2 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Clarify? 

Should they waste capital moving up or stay put and enhance what we have now?

Edited February 26, 2020 by The_Romen

[Epyon]

I don't personally like any of the QB options outside of Burrow as a bonafide starter this year, and I'd be at least doing my diligence on how ridiculous the cost would be to go up and get him.

My concerns with hoping Love, Eason, or Herbert are available in the 2nd are:

1. I think all 3 of them suck

2. I think only Eason even has a chance of still being on the board.

3. I think getting a QB that early then locks us into "them" being the "new guy".... which, in combination with point #1, is just going to set us back longer as it prevents us from going up for Lawrence or maybe Fields in 2021.

 

I'm also pretty firmly against getting Carr (statistically sucks in cold weather) and am unsure if Bridgewater is going to be worth the money he'll make. I have absolutely no interest in Dalton, am thrilled Cam resigned so we don't even need to entertain that, and think Rivers is washed up.

My plan for this draft is just ride out Biscuit, and get a later round guy like Anthony Gordon who can maybe come in mid-late season as a long shot if Biscuit sucks again, but isn't going to be a high enough draft pick to prevent us from making bigger moves in 2021 unless he comes in and just dominates.

Fromm is the other QB I could see, I suppose, but Fromm's lack of a ceiling scares me, and I think he goes a full round or two ahead of Gordon (who had a good season and good senior bowl, but I think is going to show poorly at the combine physically and come back down to earth a bit), which might lock us into Fromm for another likely wasted year or two.

Overall, getting a later round guy like Gordon gives:

1. Fans some hope. You can sell him off "Minshew Mania" as a backup who "isn't ready to to start yet" which means:

2. Keeps Mitch as the "starter" in order to utilize his "last chance" to live up to his potential with us

3. Makes it look like Pace/Nagy aren't just ignoring the position like they've done since getting Mitch

4. Doesn't prevent us from making a more substantive move next year when we actually have the means to do so.

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, The_Romen said:

Should they waste capital moving up or stay put and enhance what we have now?

Depends how you gauge the potential outcome of staying the course. I think? 

8 minutes ago, Epyon said:

I don't personally like any of the QB options outside of Burrow as a bonafide starter this year, and I'd be at least doing my diligence on how ridiculous the cost would be to go up and get him.

My concerns with hoping Love, Eason, or Herbert are available in the 2nd are:

1. I think all 3 of them suck

2. I think only Eason even has a chance of still being on the board.

But you do understand that draft evaluators DON'T...right?

Anyway, you're right, only Eason has a shot at being there. 

There is a lot to unpack from the rest of your post, but I'm not gonna do that here, as I don't understand what you're even getting at. 

[beardown3231]

31 minutes ago, Epyon said:

I don't personally like any of the QB options outside of Burrow as a bonafide starter this year, and I'd be at least doing my diligence on how ridiculous the cost would be to go up and get him.

My concerns with hoping Love, Eason, or Herbert are available in the 2nd are:

1. I think all 3 of them suck

2. I think only Eason even has a chance of still being on the board.

3. I think getting a QB that early then locks us into "them" being the "new guy".... which, in combination with point #1, is just going to set us back longer as it prevents us from going up for Lawrence or maybe Fields in 2021.

 

I'm also pretty firmly against getting Carr (statistically sucks in cold weather) and am unsure if Bridgewater is going to be worth the money he'll make. I have absolutely no interest in Dalton, am thrilled Cam resigned so we don't even need to entertain that, and think Rivers is washed up.

My plan for this draft is just ride out Biscuit, and get a later round guy like Anthony Gordon who can maybe come in mid-late season as a long shot if Biscuit sucks again, but isn't going to be a high enough draft pick to prevent us from making bigger moves in 2021 unless he comes in and just dominates.

Fromm is the other QB I could see, I suppose, but Fromm's lack of a ceiling scares me, and I think he goes a full round or two ahead of Gordon (who had a good season and good senior bowl, but I think is going to show poorly at the combine physically and come back down to earth a bit), which might lock us into Fromm for another likely wasted year or two.

Overall, getting a later round guy like Gordon gives:

1. Fans some hope. You can sell him off "Minshew Mania" as a backup who "isn't ready to to start yet" which means:

2. Keeps Mitch as the "starter" in order to utilize his "last chance" to live up to his potential with us

3. Makes it look like Pace/Nagy aren't just ignoring the position like they've done since getting Mitch

4. Doesn't prevent us from making a more substantive move next year when we actually have the means to do so.

That's what I've said all along. Not only are the odds slim that the 2nd round QB they'd theoretically take is any good, but if Pace is still around in 2021, using that high of a pick now on a QB could & likely will prevent Pace from wanting to move up for a QB next year. They'd chalk it up to that guy having promise, too many other needs, too much capital to move up, etc.

I'd rather watch them solidify the OL and TE now & use a 4th-7th on a QB and then when Trubisky blows again, all of his weirdo fans can either admit they were wrong (or more likely: find more excuses). Either way that scenario would force Pace (or ideally a new front office) to search for an actual QB.

[soulman]

9 hours ago, Epyon said:

I don't personally like any of the QB options outside of Burrow as a bonafide starter this year, and I'd be at least doing my diligence on how ridiculous the cost would be to go up and get him.

My concerns with hoping Love, Eason, or Herbert are available in the 2nd are:

1. I think all 3 of them suck

2. I think only Eason even has a chance of still being on the board.

3. I think getting a QB that early then locks us into "them" being the "new guy".... which, in combination with point #1, is just going to set us back longer as it prevents us from going up for Lawrence or maybe Fields in 2021.

This is more or less what I was getting at as far as expending a 2nd round pick on questionable NFL level starting talent.  I see very few or maybe even no consistent winners spending higher draft picks on QBs each year but I do see many perennial losers doing that.  We're all well aware of our abysmal record of developing top QBs and we already have one now whose still a work in progress so I can't see the wisdom in adding another raw rookie who like Mitch will need to to acclimate to both the NFL and Matt Nagy's offensive schemes.

If Pace and Nagy would be satisfied with another QB in need of more development then sign a FA like Mariota who at least has significant NFL starting experience and allow DeFilippo to work his magic with both hoping that one or the other comes out of their competition much stronger and more prepared to lead this offense.  Much like Mitch you already know what Mariota's upside is so we gamble on helping him achieve it just as we're doing with Mitch and if nothing else we can hopefully raise both of their floors.

It seems the alternative to this is a different vet who has had some prior success as a starter somewhere so then the pointer on the wheel ends up on guys like Dalton and Keenum or maybe one or two others but some of them are not or may not become UFA.  As far as 2020 and probably 2021 goes I'm not sure I see many other options.  If we can't "fix" Mitch how much confidence can we have about an ability to fix anyone else unless of course Mitch is just plain not the right QB to run Matt Nagy's schemes but we don't know that yet.

Job One appears to be straightening out the Mitchell Trubisky situation first or coming to the conclusion that it can't be done.  Until we see evidence that Pace and Nagy have moved on from him he's still gonna be their primary focus but I believe it's more their reputations that are on the line than their jobs.  The McCaskey's love Ryan Pace so I don't believe his job is tied to Mitch's success or failure.  He's not the only NFL GM whose missed on a QB.  There are typically more failures than success at this level and we still don't if Mitch is a miss.

[soulman]

9 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

That's what I've said all along. Not only are the odds slim that the 2nd round QB they'd theoretically take is any good, but if Pace is still around in 2021, using that high of a pick now on a QB could & likely will prevent Pace from wanting to move up for a QB next year. They'd chalk it up to that guy having promise, too many other needs, too much capital to move up, etc.

I'd rather watch them solidify the OL and TE now & use a 4th-7th on a QB and then when Trubisky blows again, all of his weirdo fans can either admit they were wrong (or more likely: find more excuses). Either way that scenario would force Pace (or ideally a new front office) to search for an actual QB.

And again this closely parallels my thinking.

I would spend my 2020 FA and draft capital on continuing to build overall talent and depth with a focus on keeping this team at a very high level and prepared to compete for a championship.  Bring in the best #2 vet QB you can get to push Mitch and compete with him for that #1 spot.  One way or another we have to come to a conclusion in 2020 that Mitch either can ascend to becoming a top NFL QB or he can't.  Only once that's been established in the minds of Pace and Nagy can they decide what path to take from there.

As of today Mitch and their perceptions of him will block any thinking about replacing him at all costs and I can't honestly say I disagree with them entirely.  Mitch has all of the physical attributes you'd want in a top QB.  What he's lacking is what's going on above his shoulders not below them.  He's not "getting it" yet but that's not to say he never will.  If he tends to function best as an intuitive type sometimes it takes awhile for that light bulb to get lit and once it does everything else begins to fall into place.  It can happen.

In 2021 we'll have our full slate of draft picks again and if there is a need to draft a top QB prospect we'll be in a much better position to do it.  There are quite a few successful NFL QBs who can prove they didn't need to be a #1 or #2 overall pick to succeed. So be patient.

Edited February 27, 2020 by soulman