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How should the Combine affect a players draft stock?


Landon Lads

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I think the Combine is really good when used to answer specific Q's, such as:

-Is a player really limited athletically?    This matters when they've played against weak competition.

-Is a player more athletically talented, and not just a beneficiary for scheme?   This is the flip side, for guys who put up great numbers with talented teams.  

-How does a guy look when asked to do different things?   This matters in the drills part of the Combine, where a guy may be asked to do something for which there's little tape.

I think the danger is when the numbers are used to override film and skill analysis (Dalvin Cook's 3-cone scaring ppl despite really awesome film, and success at an early age).  Or they don't factor in context (like Keenan Allen's 4.71 40, coming off PCL surgery, and film which showed that he was clearly playing faster / quicker / twitchier than that).

I used to believe teams also overvalued straight line speed or raw strength more than elusiveness/suddenness/explosion & functional strength, but the focus on shuttle / 3-cone / explosiveness indicators and 10 & 20 yard splits shows how far analysis has come along.    Not as much of an issue there.

 

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When the combine results mirrors what he showed on the field, that doesn't tell you much. If a guy is fast on film, and he runs fast in shorts don't count it twice.

When the combine result does not match what you saw on the field, that gives you a question you need to answer.   It may be that the answer to that question is a positive (i.e. it points to how his college coaches didn't maximize his talent with the scheme) and sometimes that answer is a negative,  but sometimes it won't really matter.  The combine is simply data, nothing more and nothing less.

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We-e-ellllllll, I may be biased, staunch Jets' fan that I am; but I can't help but root for these "unathletic" guys who test poorly at the Combine- but go on to star in the NFL via their skill, their smarts, their hard work, and, above all their HEART. And yes, I'm thinking of that self-made cerebral master of pass-rush technique: VERNON GHOLSTON!!!

I remain convinced that some day- and you read it here first!- The Ghost will notch that elusive first sack!

 

1. Vernon Gholston

Position: Defensive end

Draft: 2008, Round 1, No. 6 overall

Selected by: New York Jets

The lowdown: He came out of Ohio State with all of the measurables that teams seek: size, speed, length, strength. But Gholston was raw and inexperienced. The 6-4, 258-pound physical specimen was impressive at the combine (4.67-second 40, 35½-inch vertical, 37 reps of 225 pounds on the bench), and New York was smitten, burning a top-10 selection on a player who would start just five games and record no sacks over three seasons with the team. 

Vernon Gholston

Edited by bzane
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I would give benefit of a doubt to a highly rated recruit who underachieved in college but wasn't injury damaged and tests out to verify the athletic ability.

Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Those 4 and 5 star recruits become value when nobody wants them, as this study below indicates. They outperform because they simply have been great all their lives. Then it is briefly camouflaged in college, leading to bargains galore:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/174883892/predicting-best-nfl-draft-prospects-talent

IMO, any team during the combine and draft process that doesn't refer to the recruiting rankings, and also the age of a player, is badly out of touch and basically incompetent. Last thing I want in a top pick is a late blooming overaged stiff who was a lowly rated recruit. Who cares how that guy tests? Sure there are outlier examples. Outliers are for fools. Outliers serve to elevate the rule. 

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14 hours ago, Ragnarok said:

I'm a Mayock disciple in that I think it's good for checking boxes.  But wont use it to move a guy up a lot.

This is my thought process as well but unfortunately it will move guys up and some quite a bit. At least it's not useless like Pro Days should be. 

Edited by JTagg7754
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On 2/26/2020 at 9:12 AM, jebrick said:

I still remember Deon Sanders commenting at the Combine ( not many years ago) on how the DBs coming out of college did not know how to play the position.  Mostly that they were taught just enough to function in a coach's system.  DBs and WRs were two groups that would have to learn their positions with their NFL team.  WR need to learn to run routes and read defenses.  CBs needed technique to make them more effective.  Both are drafted as athletes with potential ( CBs more than WR). 

 

I also think the 40 is a lot of flash but not showing much as you can get specific training for doing well in that test and it might not reflect your game speed.  It is not without merit but much less so in my eyes than the media like to say.

This would be an insane amount of work but it would be interesting to see how some of these guys fare in their 40's at the combine vs high school at events like The Opening. How much faster are they in general and how much faster are they when you account for the increased height/weight moving from a senior in HS to a JR/SR in college. 

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17 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Definitely bench reps. I'm only drafting receivers and corners who ca  put up 30 reps. Everyone else is off the board. Punters too, they need to do 30 reps and jump 36 inches or I'm giving them hell. 

I share this philosophy on QB's. If they don't put up 15 reps on the bench, I'm not drafting them. If they're DNP then they're DND (Do Not Draft). 

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For Bench I do not put a lot into the test other than being pitiful compared to your peers in your group could show a lack of work ethic.  

I look at Vertical Jump and Broad jump for explosiveness.  That is really only for EDGE players.

3 cone drill is the only other test I follow.  Mainly for players that need to perform in space ( WR, LB, CB).  And it just shows the ability to change direction quickly.

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