The Derek Carr Offseason

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, CBears019 said:

A few years back we did a “game” where every participant posted a mock draft for the Bears rounds 1-7.  Not a single participant got a single pick correct.  Pretty eye-opening.

I’m still lamenting my miss on your guy Marvin McNutt, CBears... 🤦‍♂️

[soulman]

6 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Are you serious?

Just because we get picks wrong in our mock drafts doesn't mean Pace did a good job.

1) Pace is paid handsomely to make good decisions and put the organization in the best possible spot to win and win consistently. Last I checked, we are not.

2) Sometimes we'll do a mock draft for who we want him to choose and sometimes it's who we think he'll choose. I usually factor in a little of both when I make one.

3) I don't think you should be grading our mock drafts on how many Bears picks we get right (which is what you're doing or at least seem to want to do) but rather how many mocked players we "chose" ended up performing well (or not) in the NFL with maybe a sprinkle of "were they even there when the Bears picked?"

Do you see what I mean? Who cares if we correctly predicted what Pace did? Instead you should be asking "of all of these mock drafts done, how many players mocked ended up contributing in the NFL?"

Oh and fwiw, Pace better "learn" soon. He's been doing this now for 5 years and his taste in QB (Glennon, reportedly loving Mariota, Daniel, Trubisky) or lack thereof (using 1 of 32 picks on the position) is atrocious. If not, he'll end up "learning" with another organization as a scout in the near future.

Of course I'm serious.  Well paid or not he and every guy on his staff is human and human's make mistakes.  Make too many and you get fired.  Works that way the whole world over unless you're the bosses son or married to his daughter.

As for the rest I don't believe you understand what I was getting at.  I'm not grading anyone's mock draft.  I dislike them intensely. To me mock drafts are about as useful as masturbation is to starting a family.  It's pretend drafting just like masturbation is pretend sex. The fact that no one has accurately predicted Pace's picks as CBears said kinda backs me up.  It's like FF or Madden.  They're not real.  Now if someone likes doing them that's their own business.  I don't and I also don't pay much if any attention to them or comment on them.

My point was drafting is an inexact science where 2+2 doesn't always equal 4.  Much like the weather some players have a more predictable pro trajectory than other are often said to have a high floor and less upside.  Others are like a stormy day where it's less predictable whether a tornado will develop or not and if so where it will touch down.....low floor-high ceiling types.  Very often the more of the latter type you hit on the better your drafts are and your team.  But just the opposite happens when they end up playing to their floor.

But my number one point was how many forum draft gurus absolutely knew for certain Mahomes and Watson would be better over their first three years than Mitch.  How many had Eddie Jackson as their 4th round pick?  How many knew without a shadow of a doubt that Kevin White was fragile in both mind and body and would be a major bust?   Whether drafted by the Bears or someone else how many of the players they mocked ended up as All Pros vs downright busts or somewhere in between?  What's an average fans hit rate?

We as fans have much of the same quantitative data on rookies as the NFL player personnel departments have.  The NFL makes sure of it by publishing the results from the Combine and often Pro Days as well.  We can watch college game film as well. And they encourage mock drafting just as they do FF or anything else that keeps attention on the NFL that's considered good. In some cases fans even have an instinctive sense of whether or not a certain player fits the system their team plays and some times it's more obvious than others and we choose wrong too.

We each have jobs to do every day of our lives.  For over 30 years mine was analyzing investments for my clients and making recommendations.  Was every recommendation I made a successful one?  Hell no.  Some lost money, some were successful beyond my projections, and other still chugged along like and electric motor steady as all hell but not too thrilling.  Football players are much like that too and NFL GMs aren't a whole lot different than investment analysts.  The job entails a whole lot of educated guessing.

But no matter what job we do if we make too many mistakes eventually we get fired and that may happen to Pace as well....or not.  He was a rookie GM when hired to resurrect a team that was pretty devoid of talent and for three years had an albatross in John Fox hanging around his neck.  Hiring Fox was a huge mistake but far less Pace's than those who encouraged it when Pace was hardly in a position to say no to his new bosses.  But despite that he still began to build via the draft and FA the foundations of this team we see now.

Since firing Fox the Bears have gone 20-12 in the regular season. So compared to the Emery/Trestman and Pace/Fox eras I'd say the Pace/Nagy era is making progress wouldn't you?  IMHO we also need to evaluate the whole deal not just our W/L record.  Are we adding better talent?  Is the team as a whole getting better?  When mistakes are made how well are those being evaluated and how quickly are any needed adjustments and/or changes made?  Personally I believe Pace has scored pretty high on most of this stuff.

Maybe I just see it somewhat differently having had a career sitting in a similar chair to Ryan Paces for 30 plus years.  We're human and we can't avoid mistakes and it's how we deal with those that often make the difference between overall success and overall failure. If we're good at correcting our mistakes we keep our jobs and if not and we compound them we get fired.  So all I can offer to anyone here is the same advice I often gave my clients.  Don't watch the waves, watch the tide.  Is it it coming in or going out?  Are the Bears a better team today than they were two or three years ago?  If so then the tide is still coming in and the rest is only waves hitting the shore.

Edited March 3, 2020 by soulman

[beardown3231]

@soulman

I think we're on two different wavelengths and that's okay. Agree to disagree (as usual with us  ).

I get the comparison. I, too, work in the financial industry. I hope we're hitting on more mutual funds, stocks/bonds, etc for clients than Pace is picks. Drafts are a complete crapshoot and if you get 1 good player and 1 solid contributor every draft, you're doing a good job. Unfortunately you want that for the premium positions. It's great that he found a good FS middle-late and a contributing RB middle-late but I'd much rather that be on a stud WR or OT or OG or *gulp* QB.

Once again I'll try to simplify my position. I don't think it matters if our Bears' mocks are coming true, even in the slightest. I think it does matter if our Bears' mocks are, in hindsight, "producing" good NFL players whereas Pace's true drafts are not.

Example (2016 draft):

My mock:

1. Tunsil
2. Whitehair
3. Hooper

Actual draft:

1. Floyd
2. Whitehair
3. Bullard

Shouldn't I get props for mocking *good players* to the Bears rather than how accurate it ended up being? If anything I believe mocking good players to the Bears shows more knowledge than if I mocked Floyd, Whitehair, Bullard. Does that make any sense?

[dll2000]

On 2/28/2020 at 10:06 PM, soulman said:

How come no forum ever archives posters mock drafts so we can all look at them a few years later and analyze them?

We like to hold our GMs responsible for their picks yet who holds themselves responsible for the picks they mock to us or for the same missed opportunities we hold a GM responsible for.  How many mocks had us drafting Mahomes or Watson @ #2 or #3 instead of Mitch?  Who had George Kittle in their mock or Russell Wilson or Austin Hooper of even Charles Leno Jr?

Many would like to think they're wiser and more well informed than a multi-million dollar staff of NFL personnel people but where's the proof of that?  Who can show 5 years worth of mock drafts where they consistently hit on more successful picks than average guys or out and out busts?  Where's the archived data we can look at before we hand out a draft guru trophy to that guy? 

Bears never pick anyone I want, so I just wait and see who they draft now and comment afterward.  A lot of times I will be positive even though I don't love it.  Sometimes I have to speak out like the Floyd pick.  

My one and only true Mock was in 2016.  Not really a mock.  It was part of site wide GM game.  I think that is a better way to do it as you can't just give yourself everyone you want.  You have to factor in other people.   As long as you get enough die hards in it to be challenging which this one did.  Later rounds a few people faded.   I spent a lot of time watching YouTube videos of players game tape before the draft and before each new round on remaining players.  

Pretty proud of it.  My 4th and 5th rounds sucked as you can see.  But I got 4 real good players in Conklin, Jones, Hooper and Young and a solid back up in Bush and an okay back up in Ward.  (Although in real life Bush went a lot higher).

Draft Picks:  

First round: 11th overall selection. Jack Conklin, OT, MSU 

Second round: 41st overall selection. Chris Jones, DT/DE Miss St. 

Third round: 72nd overall selection. Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford. 

Fourth round: 106th overall selection Jihad Ward, DE/DT, IL 

Fourth round: 127th overall selection. Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa. 

Fifth round: 150th overall selection Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia 

Sixth round: 185th overall selection Victor Ochi, EDGE, Stony Brook 

Sixth round: 206th overall selection Tavon Young, CB, Temple 

Seventh round: 230th overall selection: Deon Bush S, Miami

 

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Bears never pick anyone I want, so I just wait and see who they draft now and comment afterward.  A lot of times I will be positive even though I don't love it.  Sometimes I have to speak out like the Floyd pick.  

My one and only true Mock was in 2016.  Not really a mock.  It was part of site wide GM game.  I think that is a better way to do it as you can't just give yourself everyone you want.  You have to factor in other people.   As long as you get enough die hards in it to be challenging which this one did.  Later rounds a few people faded.   I spent a lot of time watching YouTube videos of players game tape before the draft and before each new round on remaining players.  

Pretty proud of it.  My 4th and 5th rounds sucked as you can see.  But I got 4 real good players in Conklin, Jones, Hooper and Young and a solid back up in Bush and an okay back up in Ward.  (Although in real life Bush went a lot higher).

Draft Picks:  

First round: 11th overall selection. Jack Conklin, OT, MSU 

Second round: 41st overall selection. Chris Jones, DT/DE Miss St. 

Third round: 72nd overall selection. Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford. 

Fourth round: 106th overall selection Jihad Ward, DE/DT, IL 

Fourth round: 127th overall selection. Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa. 

Fifth round: 150th overall selection Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia 

Sixth round: 185th overall selection Victor Ochi, EDGE, Stony Brook 

Sixth round: 206th overall selection Tavon Young, CB, Temple 

Seventh round: 230th overall selection: Deon Bush S, Miami

 

Ward, Garrett and Marshall were all flyers on amazing athletes that all busted out.  Go back and look at those dudes as prospects though.  They were athletic freaks.

Victor Ochi was a small school guy who dominated the post season bowl prospect games practices.  So I took a flyer on him too.  Those were all just big swings hoping to hit a home run.   Everything I did had a reason to it.  Just not everything works out.   

 But to get 4 players of that caliber in one draft and to hit on my first 3 picks in a draft that isn't a machine that can be manipulated I think is pretty darn good.  

Nice to be able to look back 4 years later and know I did a good job when I really put effort into it.  

 

 

 

[dll2000]

36 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

@soulman

I think we're on two different wavelengths and that's okay. Agree to disagree (as usual with us  ).

I get the comparison. I, too, work in the financial industry. I hope we're hitting on more mutual funds, stocks/bonds, etc for clients than Pace is picks. Drafts are a complete crapshoot and if you get 1 good player and 1 solid contributor every draft, you're doing a good job. Unfortunately you want that for the premium positions. It's great that he found a good FS middle-late and a contributing RB middle-late but I'd much rather that be on a stud WR or OT or OG or *gulp* QB.

Once again I'll try to simplify my position. I don't think it matters if our Bears' mocks are coming true, even in the slightest. I think it does matter if our Bears' mocks are, in hindsight, "producing" good NFL players whereas Pace's true drafts are not.

Example (2016 draft):

My mock:

1. Tunsil
2. Whitehair
3. Hooper

Actual draft:

1. Floyd
2. Whitehair
3. Bullard

Shouldn't I get props for mocking *good players* to the Bears rather than how accurate it ended up being? If anything I believe mocking good players to the Bears shows more knowledge than if I mocked Floyd, Whitehair, Bullard. Does that make any sense?

Bears should hire us to be GM.

 

[soulman]

11 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I think we're on two different wavelengths and that's okay. Agree to disagree (as usual with us  ).

I get the comparison. I, too, work in the financial industry. I hope we're hitting on more mutual funds, stocks/bonds, etc for clients than Pace is picks. Drafts are a complete crapshoot and if you get 1 good player and 1 solid contributor every draft, you're doing a good job. Unfortunately you want that for the premium positions. It's great that he found a good FS middle-late and a contributing RB middle-late but I'd much rather that be on a stud WR or OT or OG or *gulp* QB.

Great, then you'll understand why we deserve more credit for correctly picking that under valued NASDAQ issue or deeply discounted bond that soars in value than we do for playing it safe with stocks like MS and Apple, etc.  So to me Pace gets more credit for drafting Eddie Jackson in the 4th round then he does Leonard Floyd in the 1st.

And I'll also consider his "hits" on other mid round picks who've become starters like Amos, Howard, Kwiatkoski as an offset for failures like White and Shaheen who were drafted much higher.  No GM will hit on every top pick and out of 22 positions QBs may well be the biggest crap shoot of all followed more recently by OT and Edge Rushers.

Once he got rid of Fox and got some cap space back again I'll also give him credit for some very savvy UFA pickups like Amukamara, Hicks, Sitton, ARob who've all made contributions as starters and of course the trade for Kahlil Mack.  I'm just not s critical of him as others, but just as he says of Mitch.  He still has to do better.

This draft claims to have a wealth of both WR and OT prospects lasting through several rounds so 2020 will give him a shot at possibly finding upgrades at both spots.  I also like a couple of the SS prospects but QB will have to be put off 'til Day 3 where we might find a decent guy to develop over the next year or two.  Top edge guys aren't plentiful either.

So by now we can at least see some possibilities for the draft and we already know for the most part what spots he may target in FA or by trade.  Some of the smoke is beginning to clear and we'll most likely add some key talent long before the draft.  All we can really do is sit back and watch what unfolds but I trust them so far to make the needed improvements.

[dll2000]

36 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

@soulman

I think we're on two different wavelengths and that's okay. Agree to disagree (as usual with us  ).

I get the comparison. I, too, work in the financial industry. I hope we're hitting on more mutual funds, stocks/bonds, etc for clients than Pace is picks. Drafts are a complete crapshoot and if you get 1 good player and 1 solid contributor every draft, you're doing a good job. Unfortunately you want that for the premium positions. It's great that he found a good FS middle-late and a contributing RB middle-late but I'd much rather that be on a stud WR or OT or OG or *gulp* QB.

Once again I'll try to simplify my position. I don't think it matters if our Bears' mocks are coming true, even in the slightest. I think it does matter if our Bears' mocks are, in hindsight, "producing" good NFL players whereas Pace's true drafts are not.

Example (2016 draft):

My mock:

1. Tunsil
2. Whitehair
3. Hooper

Actual draft:

1. Floyd
2. Whitehair
3. Bullard

Shouldn't I get props for mocking *good players* to the Bears rather than how accurate it ended up being? If anything I believe mocking good players to the Bears shows more knowledge than if I mocked Floyd, Whitehair, Bullard. Does that make any sense?

How did you mock Tunsil to Bears?  

In real life he was actually available due to last minute bong hit with a gas mask, but prior to that he was top 3 or 4 or so on almost every existing mock and was number 1 OT on just about every board with a lot of teams looking to draft OTs.  

I can't believe Bears didn't take Tunsil when he fell.  They clearly had tunnel vision on Floyd.  Floyd to me is a worse draft pick than MT.  MT was low floor high ceiling.  Floyd was low floor, nearly ow ceiling.

 

 

[soulman]

21 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Bears never pick anyone I want, so I just wait and see who they draft now and comment afterward.  A lot of times I will be positive even though I don't love it.  Sometimes I have to speak out like the Floyd pick.  

My one and only true Mock was in 2016.  Not really a mock.  It was part of site wide GM game.  I think that is a better way to do it as you can't just give yourself everyone you want.  You have to factor in other people.   As long as you get enough die hards in it to be challenging which this one did.  Later rounds a few people faded.   I spent a lot of time watching YouTube videos of players game tape before the draft and before each new round on remaining players.  

Pretty proud of it.  My 4th and 5th rounds sucked as you can see.  But I got 4 real good players in Conklin, Jones, Hooper and Young and a solid back up in Bush and an okay back up in Ward.  (Although in real life Bush went a lot higher).

Draft Picks:  

First round: 11th overall selection. Jack Conklin, OT, MSU 

Second round: 41st overall selection. Chris Jones, DT/DE Miss St. 

Third round: 72nd overall selection. Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford. 

Fourth round: 106th overall selection Jihad Ward, DE/DT, IL 

Fourth round: 127th overall selection. Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa. 

Fifth round: 150th overall selection Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia 

Sixth round: 185th overall selection Victor Ochi, EDGE, Stony Brook 

Sixth round: 206th overall selection Tavon Young, CB, Temple 

Seventh round: 230th overall selection: Deon Bush S, Miami

 

That's better proof than I've seen anyone else present. 

[beardown3231]

2 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

How did you mock Tunsil to Bears?  

In real life he was actually available due to last minute bong hit with a gas mask, but prior to that he was top 3 or 4 or so on almost every existing mock and was number 1 OT on just about every board with a lot of teams looking to draft OTs.  

I can't believe Bears didn't take Tunsil when he fell.  They clearly had tunnel vision on Floyd.  Floyd to me is a worse draft pick than MT.  MT was low floor high ceiling.  Floyd was low floor, nearly ow ceiling.

 

 

I didn't mock him. I was making up a scenario. Let's go with 2015 for a more realistic one:

Actual: White, Goldman, Langford
Mock: Armstead, Goldman, Za'Darius Smith

It doesn't matter if we got the picks right. What matters is if we're mocking good players to the Bears.

[soulman]

11 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Ward, Garrett and Marshall were all flyers on amazing athletes that all busted out.  Go back and look at those dudes as prospects though.  They were athletic freaks.

Victor Ochi was a small school guy who dominated the post season bowl prospect games practices.  So I took a flyer on him too.  Those were all just big swings hoping to hit a home run.   Everything I did had a reason to it.  Just not everything works out.   

 But to get 4 players of that caliber in one draft and to hit on my first 3 picks in a draft that isn't a machine that can be manipulated I think is pretty darn good.  

Nice to be able to look back 4 years later and know I did a good job when I really put effort into it.  

 

 

 

And I would agree but if we're doing a fair comparison did we have a shot at all of them where they were drafted but passed?

Pace and other GMs will also take home run swings at guy with off the charts athletic measurables and many of them fail as well.  As long as the majority of their drafts don't look like that they should also be given a pass.  Some gambles are worth it.

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, soulman said:

And I would agree but if we're doing a fair comparison did we have a shot at all of them where they were drafted but passed?

Pace and other GMs will also take home run swings at guy with off the charts athletic measurables and many of them fail as well.  As long as the majority of their drafts don't look like that they should also be given a pass.  Some gambles are worth it.

No.  Of course not.  The big trades hadn't even been made yet for Wentz and Goff.  Butterfly effects are impossible to predict.

But I was still dealing with actual people and not just giving myself whoever I wanted in a mock.  And I did it prior to draft, so nothing is revisionist or hindsight.

Like I could say I really wanted Mahomes, but that would be a lie.  I didn't even think Bears were taking a QB that year.  I thought they would take one of the stud DBs in that draft or trade back.   

You win some you lose some.  Just like real GMs.  

 

 

 

[soulman]

8 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I can't believe Bears didn't take Tunsil when he fell.  They clearly had tunnel vision on Floyd.  Floyd to me is a worse draft pick than MT.  MT was low floor high ceiling.  Floyd was low floor, nearly ow ceiling.

Although I don't necessarily agree Tunsil may have been looked at as a character risk.  Sometimes we need to remind ourselves just who owns this team and their inclinations.

I was also vigorously opposed to Floyd but when you have a HC clamoring for a pass rusher you take the best one you believe will fit the bill and produce as one.  He hasn't.  But what's even more odd to me is that he had 7 sacks as a rookie.  That wasn't bad for a kid who was not a pass rushing fiend in college.  So what happened?  Why has he continued to fall short of expectations as a pass rusher?

I think overall Floyd has played well enough to justify a 1st round pick just not a top ten pick and for that same reason he hasn't earned a top ten deal on an extension either.  What Pace decides to do about his bloated 5th year option cost is of more interest to me right now than who he plans on bringing in as a QB.  He lacks complete control over that but not of Floyd's deal.

[soulman]

6 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

No.  Of course not.  The big trades hadn't even been made yet for Wentz and Goff.  Butterfly effects are impossible to predict.

But I was still dealing with actual people and not just giving myself whoever I wanted in a mock.  And I did it prior to draft, so nothing is revisionist or hindsight.

Like I could say I really wanted Mahomes, but that would be a lie.  I didn't even think Bears were taking a QB that year.  I thought they would take one of the stud DBs in that draft or trade back.   

You win some you lose some.  Just like real GMs.  

 

 

 

And that was my only point.

My take on Pace having been a better GM to date than Jerry Angelo (despite the W/L record) is based on a number of factors some objective and others subjective but it's only one man's opinion and nothing more.  Pace still has to prove that his long term plan is successful and at the moment Mitch's regression is blocking that to a large degree.  How he eventually resolves this will IMHO set the tone for what's to come over the next 2-3 years.  Then I may be able to judge him better but so far his grade is just an incomplete.

[dll2000]

6 minutes ago, soulman said:

Although I don't necessarily agree Tunsil may have been looked at as a character risk.  Sometimes we need to remind ourselves just who owns this team and their inclinations.

I was also vigorously opposed to Floyd but when you have a HC clamoring for a pass rusher you take the best one you believe will fit the bill and produce as one.  He hasn't.  But what's even more odd to me is that he had 7 sacks as a rookie.  That wasn't bad for a kid who was not a pass rushing fiend in college.  So what happened?  Why has he continued to fall short of expectations as a pass rusher?

I think overall Floyd has played well enough to justify a 1st round pick just not a top ten pick and for that same reason he hasn't earned a top ten deal on an extension either.  What Pace decides to do about his bloated 5th year option cost is of more interest to me right now than who he plans on bringing in as a QB.  He lacks complete control over that but not of Floyd's deal.

I think from interviews Pace was 'bullied' into taking Floyd by Fangio and Fox.  He was facing an insurrection as they were looking at getting fired and wanted their 2 cents on help where they saw a big need.