The Derek Carr Offseason

[dll2000]

2 minutes ago, soulman said:

And that was my only point.

My take on Pace having been a better GM to date than Jerry Angelo (despite the W/L record) is based on a number of factors some objective and others subjective but it's only one man's opinion and nothing more.  Pace still has to prove that his long term plan is successful and at the moment Mitch's regression is blocking that to a large degree.  How he eventually resolves this will IMHO set the tone for what's to come over the next 2-3 years.  Then I may be able to judge him better but so far his grade is just an incomplete.

See I think Pace is overall pretty good.  He makes well reasoned decisions and gambles big at times.  He manages the cap well.

I think Bears have a real professional leader and one of better GMs overall in the league.  

But like @WindyCity points out you unfortunately you aren't graded on process you are graded on results.  And massive unexpected regression by so many players last year really makes Pace look bad.  It is tough to defend results.  

And missing on Mahomes will be something he never lives down even though a lot of people did.  Like I said, it made perfect sense for Portland GM to take a big man over Michael Jordan.  1) He had certain HOFer Clyde Drexler at same position.  2) League was dominated by big men at time.  3) Michael Jordan didn't have a jumper coming out of college.    But he will forever be remembered for that decision as an idiot because Michael Jordan became Michael Jordan.  

I just think change doesn't always get you someone better.  I can't remember a Bears GM who made better reasoned overall decisions then Pace and handled all his duties as well as he does. 

 

 

 

 

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

See I think Pace is overall pretty good.  He makes well reasoned decisions and gambles big at times.  He manages the cap well.

I think Bears have a real professional leader and one of better GMs overall in the league.  

But like @WindyCity points out you unfortunately you aren't graded on process you are graded on results.  And massive unexpected regression by so many players last year really makes Pace look bad.  It is tough to defend results.  

And missing on Mahomes will be something he never lives down even though a lot of people did.  Like I said, it made perfect sense for Portland GM to take a big man over Michael Jordan.  1) He had certain HOFer Clyde Drexler at same position.  2) League was dominated by big men at time.  3) Michael Jordan didn't have a jumper coming out of college.    But he will forever be remembered for that decision as an idiot because Michael Jordan became Michael Jordan.  

I just think change doesn't always get you someone better.  I can't remember a Bears GM who made better reasoned overall decisions then Pace and handled all his duties as well as he does. 

 

 

 

 

@soulman

I think we can learn something from continuity of Steelers and Patriots and New Orleans organizations.   Especially the Steelers who have had good continuity since the 70s.

They have some bad seasons, but they don't freak out and get rid of good minds and solid leadership.

 

[soulman]

33 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I think from interviews Pace was 'bullied' into taking Floyd by Fangio and Fox.  He was facing an insurrection as they were looking at getting fired and wanted their 2 cents on help where they saw a big need.

 

We'll never know for certain but IMHO that's as good a guess as any.

IMHO the real fault was in believing solely on the basis of Floyd's physical abilities he could be developed into a top Edge Rusher and IME that's seldom that case.  Also IMHO any NFL team whose looking for a productive pass rusher would be better off taking a flyer on a second or third day pick who was a top pass rusher in college than someone like Floyd who never was to begin with.

If I had Ryan Pace's job and dealing with the Floyd thing I would either get an extension done with him both parties can live with or I would release him to see what his FMV is in FA. If someone else willing to believe THEY can turn him into a double digit sack artist is willing to pay him $13 mil a year or more I'd let them do it and take my comp pick if at all possible.

If we can extend him we can always draft an edge guy who is a better pure pass rusher or find a FA looking for a deal who has done well in the past.  Maybe a guy like Vic Beasley comes in cheap for a shot at making the team as a 3rd down specialist.  Or maybe I'm a little crazy but I have to wonder how Kwiatkoski might do playing at OLB.

IMHO Mitch isn't the biggest elephant in the room Floyd's 5th year option is.  It's a cap killer just when we don't need one of those.

[soulman]

46 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

See I think Pace is overall pretty good.  He makes well reasoned decisions and gambles big at times.  He manages the cap well.

I think Bears have a real professional leader and one of better GMs overall in the league.  

But like @WindyCity points out you unfortunately you aren't graded on process you are graded on results.  And massive unexpected regression by so many players last year really makes Pace look bad.  It is tough to defend results.  

And missing on Mahomes will be something he never lives down even though a lot of people did.  Like I said, it made perfect sense for Portland GM to take a big man over Michael Jordan.  1) He had certain HOFer Clyde Drexler at same position.  2) League was dominated by big men at time.  3) Michael Jordan didn't have a jumper coming out of college.    But he will forever be remembered for that decision as an idiot because Michael Jordan became Michael Jordan.  

I just think change doesn't always get you someone better.  I can't remember a Bears GM who made better reasoned overall decisions then Pace and handled all his duties as well as he does. 

 

 

 

 

All key points in my analysis of him as well.  The bottom line is we could do far worse.....and have.

As for Windy's opinion it's only that and he doesn't own the Bears so he's doesn't get a vote. LOL

GMcC, Ginny, the rest of the McCaskey clan and Sweaty Teddy all love him and knowing them they are interested in the process as well mostly because they can't even come close to doing that part themselves.  Michael tried and failed miserably which pretty much ended any further attempts on their part to play GM and they took heed of the old adage "owners own".

My take is that in his second offseason after realizing Fox was more of a hindrance than a help Pace began to lay the foundation for his visions for the team but knew he'd still be stuck with Fox for at least one more season which then became two.  "Still he persisted". LOL

While the job is still incomplete in sum total he's done as well so far as anyone should probably have expected of a guy who came in as a rookie GM having to prove himself to his employers and his peers around the NFL.  And as I posted how he handles this offseason and probably the next will be what I consider key factors in his final grade.  But even if Mitch does fail I don't see that as being pivotal in him losing his job.  Not as long as his Plan B keeps us competitive should that happen and even now we still are a competitive team.

[soulman]

58 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

@soulman

I think we can learn something from continuity of Steelers and Patriots and New Orleans organizations.   Especially the Steelers who have had good continuity since the 70s.

They have some bad seasons, but they don't freak out and get rid of good minds and solid leadership.

 

Ed Zachary! 

GSH ran this team 'til 1974 when he finally realized he needed newer thinking and expertise and hired Jim Finks as his GM.  So while GMcC can say he's the impatient sort I also believe he's as intelligent as his ol' Grandpa was in knowing what he knows and what he doesn't.

They have confidence in Ryan Pace's skills and his long terms plan and I believe they'll do all they can to allow it to play out.  Even following a somewhat disappointing 8-8 season I can see this team as being in far better shape and under more capable leadership than it has been at any time in the last decade and maybe longer.

Firing people is easy. IIRC there was once a TV show predicated on that alone.  But hiring better people and winning more often is much tougher to come by than some believe and we can also see evidence of that. 

[JAF-N72EX]

Nice work Windy. I don't agree with some of the choices or contracts but I still appreciate the effort anyhow. 

I like the idea of retaining both Bush and Trevathan. RRH I would be fine with IF he would accept that kind of salary -- which is fair imo. I've already said what I think about getting a QB like Carr or Dalton so I won't waste anymore time on that. Mims at 73 would be a steal, imo, and Claypool at 93 would icing on the cake. Not a big fan of Chinn but I like the position pick. Hightower I wouldn't mind him for depth but I don't think his ceiling is too high though. I say no to Jaron Bryant. He's a ball hawk in the open field but we need a smart, fast, physical corner who is good at projecting routes and shadowing WR's that can compete with the likes of Adams, Golladay, Theilan, and Diggs (if he is still there) -- I actually think he would be a decent depth player at saftey in the NFL . Charlie Heck, I don't know enough about him. Corbin is somewhat interesting based on my little time wtaching him, and I don't care enough about the rest. 

A couple of minor mistakes in the math in this scenario though. 1) We don't have 27.5M to start. 2) You would need 4.2M to sign those rookies, not 3M. 3) Releasing Cohen, Shaheen, and Braunecker would clear 4.9M in cap space, and not 2.6 in total that you have listed (-1.4M + 3M) and releasing Braunecker would have to happen by March 20th to avoid paying him 140k----respectively speaking it's not alot , I know, just saying. Also not sure what you mean by +5 top-51 cut-off, or the +5 for new CBA. 

If anything, we would lose some salary cap if they agree on a new CBA deal this year, and we can say goodbye to any potential team friendly, back-loaded deals for players such as Floyd because of the 30% percent rule as well. This might be moot though since I don't think they come to an agreement this year anyhow, but we will find out more today since all ballots need to be in today by 4pm est.

Anyhow, here is what the cap space would look like in this scenario at the this time (The players highlighted in red wouldn't count against the cap. I only showed them because of the draft picks).

Total Salary: $200,000,000
Top-51: $198,336,726.00
Dead-cap: $7,820,963
Off-season money: $2,000,000
Grand Total left: $8,399,050 + whatever is left of the off-season money after Sept 5th

 

[BayRaider]

Good luck with the worst cold weather QB in the league. 
 

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by BayRaider

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Good luck with the worst cold weather QB in the league. 
 

 

There are a lot of reasons the Bears shouldn’t go after Carr. The most compelling argument for acquiring him is, “He’s not 2019 Trubisky.” For some that seems to be enough, while that he’s unlikely to be the reason the team ever wins anything of consequence vs. not getting in the way of them winning anything of consequence is somehow just a footnote. He’s basically a slightly enhanced Kyle Orton IMO. 

[dll2000]

Ill pass on Carr.   

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Ill pass on Carr.   

Ditto. I'd rather stack the team around Tru and grab a rookie to compete and if he sucks this year go all in on moving up for a QB. Then you have two rookie contracts at QB and a ton of space for the remainder of the team for 3 years at least to stack up.