AZ’s post-combine mock

[AZBearsFan]

Start $26.1M cap space 

RELEASE

TE Shaheen (+1.3)

TE Braunecker (+1.5)

 

$28.1M cap space 

EXTENSIONS 

WR Allen Robinson 5/82.5M extension; 2020 cap hit: 10.5M. Deal based loosely on the one I proposed a few weeks ago. Stud WR gets paid and we lock in our most consistently good offensive performer for likely the duration of his prime. High fives to everyone. (+4.5)

WR Cordarelle Patterson 2/9.25M extension for 3/14 overall (6M total guaranteed; 2M SB, 2020 2.5M base full guarantee, 2M 2021 base full guarantee). Cap hits: 3.5M/4.5M/6M. Patterson is an electric KR but also a flat out stud on coverage teams. This deal pays him in line with the top ST only players in the league. (+2.25)

DT Akiem Hicks 3/38M extension thru 2024 (total new contract 5/58.6M). 26.2M in new guarantees. I converted 7M of the existing 10.2M 2020 salary to a signing bonus with the remaining 3.2M salary fully guaranteed for a 2020 cap number of just 5.2M (amortization of remaining SB + new SB = 2M/yr). 2021 base salary is 10M and fully guaranteed. In 2022 6M of base salary is fully guaranteed. No guarantees 2023 or 2024. No roster/workout bonuses in deal. Salaries 2022-2024: 10M, 12M, 16.4M. Cap hits: 5.2/12/12/14/18.4

(+6.6)

 

$41.45M cap space 

RE-SIGN

ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis 2/8M, 3.25M guaranteed, including a 2M SB (2.25/5.75). Performed well enough to earn a shot at a full time gig in 2019. Here we’re giving him what amounts to a prove it deal where, if he does, he earns a solid pay bump in year 2 before FA again at 28.

S Deon Bush 2/3M (1.3/1.7). Bush has shown to be a quality reserve but never enough to be a consistent contributor. The depth he provides has value but his lack of ability to seize the opportunity to secure a starting spot when presented should limit his FA market. 

LS Patrick Scales 2/2.5M (1.2/1.3). Solid long snapper. We need one, so we keep him. 

DL Roy Robertson-Harris 1/2.2M (original round RFA tender). Solid rotation player for us who flashes impact ability. He’s in an ideal spot here with the surrounding impact players drawing extra attention to show out and earn a significant pay day in 2021. 

TE JP Holtz (ERFA) 1/610k. Adequate in many roles but a master of none, Holtz is solid back of the roster depth at a bargain price. This was a no-brainer for me. 

OLB Isaiah Irving 1/1M. Irving has shown to be just a guy on defense but a decent enough ST player. Here he’s end of the roster experienced depth who will need to continue to show ST value to be active on Sundays. 

S DeAndre Houston-Carson 1/1M. See Isaiah Irving above. 

DL Brent Urban 1/1M. Urban was adequate fringe depth. Bringing him back saves a replacement level FA signing that could impact the comp pick formula. 

OT Cornelius Lucas 1/1M. Lucas was uninspiring filling in for Massie but showed flashes of competence. Here he’s depth retained to fight for his job in TC with anyone we bring in to compete. 

 

$29.89M cap space 

FA DEPARTURES

(qualifying for comp pick formula) 

ILB Kwiatkowski 

ILB Trevathan

S Clinton-Dix

QB Daniel 

DL Williams 

(signed elsewhere post-comp pick cutoff or not signed)

OG Larsen 

CB McManis

 

FA SIGNINGS 

TE Austin Hooper 5/61.25M, 24M guaranteed at signing incl 10M SB, 2020 & 2021 base salaries. Additionally, 6M of 2022 salary guarantees 3rd day of 2022 league year (cap hits 6/12.8/13.3/14.2/14.95). Hooper resets the TE market here in AAV (until Kelce and Kittle crush this number). He’s hitting FA at the right time with the receiving TE being a booming position as the NFL moves forward and with the salary cap about to spike significantly. We use the latter here to make the 2020 hit palatable with a deal that fits the pay structure much better after Burton presumably comes off the books in 2021. 

SS Karl Joseph 4/24M, 12M guaranteed, including a 6M SB (cap hits 4.5/5.5/6/8). We saw in 2019 that Eddie Jackson is at his most impactful for us when he’s backed off the LOS and allowed to make instinctive plays on the ball. HHCD was solid last year but didn’t excel near the LOS which miscast EJ and limited his effectiveness. Joseph is the opposite - he is strong in the box and brings some intimidation to the secondary that was lacking in 2019. In what essentially amounts to a 2/12M deal here the former 1st rounder provides both stability and also some upside on the back end. 

G Mike Iupati 2/12M, 6M guaranteed, including a 2M signing bonus (cap hits 5/7). We need an immediate fix at RG. Iupati isn’t a long term option at age 32 nor is he what he was 5 years ago but he’s still a solid starter and a significant upgrade over Coward at a price that’s manageable. 

QB Case Keenum 2/12M, including a 5M signing bonus and base salaries 2M 2020 and 5M 2021 (cap hits 4.5/7.5). Keenum is an upgraded QB2 from Daniel and a guy capable of stepping in capably should Mitch falter or be injured, having shown the ability to game manage a team with a strong running game (which we hope to have in 2020) to the postseason in MIN in 2017. Here he pockets 7M in year 1 and if he’s needed as a bridge to a new rookie in 2021 he’s on the books for a manageable salary that can be easily modified while only leaving 2.5M dead cap should we look to move on from him after 2020. 

 

$9.89M cap space 

DRAFT

2a- WR Jalen Reagor, TCU 

This offseason build is about supplementing our offense with what it lacks. Reagor brings elite speed and acceleration and gamebreaking RAC ability with adequate size to play outside or inside. He bulked up for the combine and his 40 was underwhelming, but the tape doesn’t lie here. 

2b- EDGE Jabari Zuniga, Florida 

Floyd is a solid starter but not much of an edge rusher, and here is out of contract after 2020. We need someone who can work in opposite Mack and give us edge pressure. Zuniga is fast and powerful with huge potential who here gets to start out in a situational role that best suits his current skill set. 

4 (comp)- EDGE Alex Highsmith, Charlotte 

Double dip on what I see as clearly our biggest defensive need. Highsmith is a high motor guy with some moves who dominated against lesser competition and held his own when playing up and in the Senior Bowl. He walks in the door better equipped than any of our existing depth to contribute. 

5- LB Evan Weaver, Cal

Weaver has some athletic limitations but is technically sound and wins on effort and instincts. He’s the kind of competitor who should excel on ST as well. His makeup reminds me a lot of Kwiatkowski, and their combine performances were nearly identical. Here he’s competing for reps with KPL next to Roquan.

6a- OT Colton McKivitz, West Virginia

Massie was underwhelming and hurt last year and becomes financially expendable after 2020. McKivitz is likely a RT only given physical limitations but has starter potential there with some seasoning. 2020 depth. 

6b- OG Tremayne Anchrum, Clemson 

Trevor Lawrence’s RT this past year, Anchrum was a strong performer and then held his own at the Senior Bowl. He’s going to have to move inside in the NFL at 6-2 315 but I think he has NFL ability there. Here he’s not rushed to the field behind in 2020 after the Iupati signing. 

7a- CB Reggie Robinson II, Tulsa 

At this stage you’re looking for traits guys. Robinson has NFL boundary corner size at 6-1 205 and crushed the combine testing. We have developmental corners across from Fuller and this is another to add to the mix, though I suspect would be a PS candidate in year 1. 

7b- P Michael Turk, Arizona State 

O’Donnell is an average to below average NFL punter. In 2019 he was 24th in punt yard average, 22nd in net punt yardage and 16th in punts inside the 20. This wasn’t an outlier year either - he has NEVER finished in the top half of the league in net average in 6 seasons. He has had a punt blocked in 4 of his 6 seasons too, and our kickers have been underwhelming (including Gould) since he became the regular holder which after several kickers I don’t see as a coincidence. Turk has a huge leg and has NFL bloodlines (he is longtime NFL punter Matt Turk’s nephew). O’Donnell would leave just $100k in dead cap if released. It’s time he got legitimate competition. 

 

$7M cap space post-draft (approximate for top 51) 

FA (post-comp pick formula window) 

Veteran RB up to $2M salary 

There are going to be known names who are capable of providing good depth behind Montgomery given the reasonably loaded top of the draft and multiple big name FAs. Guys on my radar for this include: LeSean McCoy, Bilal Powell, Lamar Miller. I just don’t see the market and the draft allowing for these guys to get starter roles elsewhere. I also don’t see Cohen as a viable replacement should Montgomery miss more than one game at any given time, and Nall seems to be just a guy. 

 

Cap space entering week 1: approx $5M 

DEPTH 

QB Trubisky, Keenum

RB Montgomery, Cohen, Vet FA, Nall

WR Robinson, Miller, Reagor, Ridley, Wims, Patterson 

TE Hooper, Burton, Harris, Holtz/Horsted

OT Leno, Massie, McKivitz, Lucas

IOL Whitehair, Daniel, Iupati, Anchrum, Bars/Coward

 

DL Hicks, Goldman, Nichols, RRH, Urban 

EDGE Mack, Floyd, Zuniga, Highsmith, Irving

ILB Smith, KPL, Weaver, Iggy/Woods

CB Fuller, Skrine, Roberson, Toliver, Shelley, Denmark/Robinson II

S Jackson, Joseph, Bush, DHC

 

K Pineiro 

P Turk/O’Donnell 

LS Scales

-I chose not to do anything with Floyd’s deal here but doing so we could easily create as much as $5M in 2020 cap space if we changed our minds on that. 

-Looking at our FA additions and subtractions here I have projected 4 qualifying adds and 5 qualifying departures. Were this projection to come to fruition I’d expect 1 2021 comp pick, likely in round 6 or 7.

Edited March 3, 2020 by AZBearsFan

[WindyCity]

I like it. I think we will have the money to bring Trevathan back when the cap gets bumped and we can use the huge cap increase in 2021.

I appreciate the investment on offense. I am not sure Iupati has the movement skills yet to fit the offense but a 6/season budget should get us a starting quality OG.

[dll2000]

It is a good hypothetical offseason.  I just don't think Bears are going to get two of top FA at their respective positions in Hooper and Joseph.   I think Pace wants to stay cheap at 1 safety for overall cap health.  

Who is CB Roberson?

 

[AZBearsFan]

26 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

It is a good hypothetical offseason.  I just don't think Bears are going to get two of top FA at their respective positions in Hooper and Joseph.   I think Pace wants to stay cheap at 1 safety for overall cap health.  

Who is CB Roberson?

Roberson is the CFL guy they signed a few weeks back. I justified the SS expense in that the CB2 is going to be a guy on a rookie deal during that duration, and by not going with a more touted FA to replace DT/Kwit. I also don’t really view Joseph as a top FA per se at S. I think there will be a handful of guys at the position more likely to get bigger deals than him not including Simmons who will almost certainly be franchise tagged. The cap hits I have for Joseph were meant to reflect that. I only have him hitting our cap for $4.5M in 2020 and $5.5M in 2021. We had HHCD at $4M last year.  

[dll2000]

6 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Roberson is the CFL guy they signed a few weeks back. I justified the SS expense in that the CB2 is going to be a guy on a rookie deal during that duration, and by not going with a more touted FA to replace DT/Kwit. I also don’t really view Joseph as a top FA per se at S. I think there will be a handful of guys at the position more likely to get bigger deals than him not including Simmons who will almost certainly be franchise tagged. The cap hits I have for Joseph were meant to reflect that. I only have him hitting our cap for $4.5M in 2020 and $5.5M in 2021. We had HHCD at $4M last year.  

Oh yeah.  I forgot about Roberson.  LOL.

I think Joseph gets more than that on open market, he is a pretty solid SS.  We'll see though.  I'd love him for 4 million.   

 

[abstract_thought]

This team is really starting to lose talent. That defense is noticeably worse than what the Bears fielded in 2018.

That's not an indictment on you OP, more a consequence of the way Pace built the team.

[AZBearsFan]

44 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

This team is really starting to lose talent. That defense is noticeably worse than what the Bears fielded in 2018.

That's not an indictment on you OP, more a consequence of the way Pace built the team.

FWIW the consistently best drafting teams like NE and BAL lose really good players in this way every offseason. That it is starting to happen here as guys Pace drafted start to come up for second contracts is a sign that Pace has (clutches pearls) done some parts of his job pretty well. Losing the Kwiatkowskis of the roster (solid starters but not cornerstone contract type players) are going to happen and if things go as planned should happen - the key is continuing to identify the next Kwiatkowskis. Only time (if he gets it) will tell if he’s able to do those things. Pace getting in a pattern of having mid-round picks turn into well paid players elsewhere and returning mid-round comp picks down the line (as he did with Amos and may be able to do with Kwiat and possibly Floyd next year) is one of the things NE and BAL do better than everyone else that allows them to continue to stockpile higher end prospects to keep backfilling the roster. 

[abstract_thought]

18 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

FWIW the consistently best drafting teams like NE and BAL lose really good players in this way every offseason. That it is starting to happen here as guys Pace drafted start to come up for second contracts is a sign that Pace has (clutches pearls) done some parts of his job pretty well. Losing the Kwiatkowskis of the roster (solid starters but not cornerstone contract type players) are going to happen and if things go as planned should happen - the key is continuing to identify the next Kwiatkowskis. Only time (if he gets it) will tell if he’s able to do those things. Pace getting in a pattern of having mid-round picks turn into well paid players elsewhere and returning mid-round comp picks down the line (as he did with Amos and may be able to do with Kwiat and possibly Floyd next year) is one of the things NE and BAL do better than everyone else that allows them to continue to stockpile higher end prospects to keep backfilling the roster. 

By the time any of these comp picks make an impact the Bears will be looking for a new QB and half the 2018 defense will be gone. The Bears’ competitive window with Ryan Pace is right now. He built the team that way.