4 players that Bears could lose to free agency

[soulman]

4 players that Bears could lose to free agency

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/04/four-players-chicago-bears-could-lose-free-agency-nick-kwiatkoski-ha-ha-clinton-dix-nick-williams-danny-trevathan/4/

While the Bears would certainly like to re-sign everyone, there’s a good chance that they lose some key pieces to free agency.  So I though we might hone in on these four guys alone and give our thoughts on each.  We've kind of covered Kwiatkoski already but now that we're within two weeks of FA beginning and we've heard nothing about a new deal we can revisit is again and offer some thoughts.  Is it possible Pace will allow him to become a FA to set his price then decide whether or not to match it?  What about Nick Williams?  The same?  How much interest will DT actually draw?

Here are four players that the Bears risk losing in free agency:

1. ILB Nick Kwiatkoski

AP Photo/Sarah Stier

Perhaps the pending Bears free agent that will be in highest demand is inside linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, who took full advantage of his opportunity last season. Kwiatkoski shined in relief of an injured Danny Trevathan, which gave the Bears something to think about at inside linebacker opposite Roquan Smith.

The Bears are reportedly making Kwiatkoski a top free agent priority this offseason, but they’ll have to wager with other teams in need of his services. While Kwiatkoski appears to be the younger, less injury-prone option at inside linebacker for Chicago, there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to lock him up in this competitive market.

 

2. S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

While the Bears were content with the Alabama duo of Eddie Jackson and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix last season, it sounds like they’ll have to find someone to line up opposite Jackson in 2020. Clinton-Dix was a valuable member of Chicago’s secondary that came at a much cheaper price than the departed Adrian Amos.

The Bears signed Clinton-Dix to a one-year prove-it deal last March, and he more than proved that he’s earned a contract extension. Only that’s not likely to come in Chicago, as the Bears face some salary cap difficulties with a need to sign an experienced veteran quarterback that would limit their spending.

 

3. DT Nick Williams

AP Photo/Matt Marton

The Bears defense suffered some injuries to key defensive players last season, and one of the players that came up big was defensive tackle Nick Williams. Stepping up from a reserve role as the Bears battled injuries on the defensive line, Williams shined when called upon. Williams had 42 tackles, six sacks, two fumble recoveries and two pass breakouts in 2019.

If there’s one position group that Chicago appears most comfortable with it’s the defensive line, and Williams was a big part of their continued success in 2019. While Williams will certainly draw some heads in free agency, he has expressed a desire to remain in Chicago. He’s proven to be a productive player on an already-dominant Bears defensive front, but he’ll likely get a chance to make some money this free agency.

 

4. ILB Danny Trevathan

AP Photo/D. Ross Cameron

Danny Trevathan was playing some of his best football before suffering a gruesome elbow injury that ultimately held him out for the final seven games. While Trevathan has proven to be a valuable asset for the Bears over the last four years. But he’s also 30 years old with a history of injuries. Trevathan has missed 16 games since signing with the Bears prior to the 2015 season.

While the Bears are reportedly making Nick Kwiatkoski their top free agent priority, there’s no guarantee that they’ll ultimately be able to afford him. If the Bears can’t get lock up Kwiatkoski for an extension, Chicago could look to re-sign Trevathan for a cheaper price.

[soulman]

I've already spoken at length about Kwiatkoski vs Trevathan and the news that they are making him a priority to re-sign I take as good news but will it happen before FA begins or will Pace allow him to shop himself as he did with Amos then decide whether or not to spend the money needed to keep him?  I gotta think offers may be in the $7-$8 mil AAV range and at that price I would keep him.  But if like Amos we find GB or anyone else offering significantly more my thinking is Pace won't overpay and he'll let him sign elsewhere.

It would be nice to keep both DT and "Kwit" but not practical with our cap situation and other needs to be filled.  In this case I do believe Pace will allow Trevathan to shop himself in order to set his MV.  I also think there's a good chance that due to his significant injury history DT will end up as no better then a second wave guy looking at one or two year deals for less than his previous $7 mil AAV contract.  If so this should give Pace a shot at trying to keep "Kwit" while still being able to sign DT if he's unsuccessful.

HHC-D will sign elsewhere and that's OK.  He earned every plug nickel of his 2019 deal and set himself up for better offers in 2020 than we can afford.  But this is where we may gain by subtraction.  HHC-D pretty much forced us to use him as a FS while playing Eddie Jackson more often as a SS or at any rate less as that deep centerfielder where his range and ability to pick off passes was of more benefit in 2018 than it was in 2019.  We can draft a rookie SS and allow him to compete with others for that starting job.

Nick Williams proved to be a very valuable backup for Akeim Hicks when we lost him and he can also play NT as a backup to Eddie Goldman so keeping him for that reason alone and to rotate with Nichols and RRH would make sense.  He played under a vet minimum deal last year and earned a nice raise but how much?  He's 30 years old and still more of a backup caliber guy than a starter.  How high would we be willing to go to keep him vs drafting a DL or bring in an UDFA to replace him?  We don't have another backup like him now.

[WindyCity]

If the Bears can be efficient on the trade and cuts market and make 1 big free agent move they could be in line for some comp picks next season.

Lets say they keep DT

HHCD [9 mil]-4

Kwik [8 mil]-5

Williams [3 mil]-6/7

Daniel [3 mil]-6/7

[dll2000]

With Prince that is potentially 5 significant players off 2019 defense.  

[soulman]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

If the Bears can be efficient on the trade and cuts market and make 1 big free agent move they could be in line for some comp picks next season.

Lets say they keep DT

HHCD [9 mil]-4

Kwik [8 mil]-5

Williams [3 mil]-6/7

Daniel [3 mil]-6/7

You like comp picks and anything from the 4th round on is a gamble.  I like proven pro level players some of whom may have been 4th round picks or less and have ascended to what they are now.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

With Prince that is potentially 5 significant players off 2019 defense.  

Yeah.....think about that for a minute and contrast it to where we sat a year ago.

Just how many of our starters and starting caliber depth do we dare losing and still maintain a top ten defense?

I'm not gonna lose any sleep over whatever Pace decides.  I'll simply assume he's identified others who can replace those he's willing to lose either in FA or the draft.  He's done it before so I'll back his plays as long as he can keep doing it.

Despite that I am glad to read that he's making Kwiatkoski a priority.  The guy is in his prime now and it would seem to be a whole lot smarter to lock him up now just as we did DT as he was reaching his prime.  He's past that now and while I didn't see any decline in his play I can see him becoming even more of an injury problem as time passes.  If he had never been injured prior to 2019 I wouldn't say that but it's quite obviously not the case.  We need to be smart here if at all possible.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

If the Bears can be efficient on the trade and cuts market and make 1 big free agent move they could be in line for some comp picks next season.

Lets say they keep DT

HHCD [9 mil]-4

Kwik [8 mil]-5

Williams [3 mil]-6/7

Daniel [3 mil]-6/7

A lot of that can be dictated by who is released over the next few weeks too. Signings of guys cut don’t count against the comp pick formula as currently in place (and I haven’t seen anything about that being a proposed change in the new CBA). Guys whose options are not picked up do still count against the formula. We could conceivably sign Josh Norman, Alec Ogletree and Paul Richardson today and it wouldn’t impact us as far as the comp pick formula goes. In a more practical sense, signing Cordy Glenn when he’s released also wouldn’t impact it. 

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

You like comp picks and anything from the 4th round on is a gamble.  I like proven pro level players some of whom may have been 4th round picks or less and have ascended to what they are now.

I like getting things for guys we cannot afford to keep.We cannot afford to keep guys that is the reality of the cap situation we are in.

The best teams in the league use this system to their advantage.

 

I do not turn my nose up at day 3 picks, many of the contributing players on this team were picked on day 3.

Edited March 4, 2020 by WindyCity

[soulman]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I like getting things for guys we cannot afford to keep.We cannot afford to keep guys that is the reality of the cap situation we are in.

The best teams in the league use this system to their advantage.

 

I do not turn my nose up at day 3 picks, many of the contributing players on this team were picked on day 3.

Who says we can't afford to keep any of the four?  You?  Why be so absolute?  Surely one of the four is keepable and maybe two.

HHC-D is gonna go and that's fine.  We'd be better off with a true SS anyway.  But from what we've read Pace has put a priority on signing Kwit so he must feel that he can afford him at least at a certain level.  And if Nick Williams can be brought back that wouldn't shock me either.  With DT the bigger question is whether or not he should be re-signed vs Kwiatkoski and you and I disagree on that.

Maybe you just haven't read all that I have being busy with mock drafts and all but Pace has said in public that he and Joey Laine have worked out plans so that they will be able to do what they have planned for FA.  So I believe the "reality" is our cap situation isn't as limiting as it may appear to be or the media fears it is at least it isn't by Pace's standards and his are all that count.

[abstract_thought]

21 hours ago, dll2000 said:

With Prince that is potentially 5 significant players off 2019 defense.  

Comparing this defense to the 2018 unit really puts things into perspective. Not sure the Bears can field a top 10 defense next season.

[AZBearsFan]

18 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Comparing this defense to the 2018 unit really puts things into perspective. Not sure the Bears can field a top 10 defense next season.

I personally don’t think that Nick Kwiatkowski is the difference between being top 10 or not. I think our pass rush issues outside of 52 are the biggest factor. 

[WindyCity]

17 hours ago, soulman said:

Who says we can't afford to keep any of the four?  You?  Why be so absolute?  Surely one of the four is keepable and maybe two.

HHC-D is gonna go and that's fine.  We'd be better off with a true SS anyway.  But from what we've read Pace has put a priority on signing Kwit so he must feel that he can afford him at least at a certain level.  And if Nick Williams can be brought back that wouldn't shock me either.  With DT the bigger question is whether or not he should be re-signed vs Kwiatkoski and you and I disagree on that.

Maybe you just haven't read all that I have being busy with mock drafts and all but Pace has said in public that he and Joey Laine have worked out plans so that they will be able to do what they have planned for FA.  So I believe the "reality" is our cap situation isn't as limiting as it may appear to be or the media fears it is at least it isn't by Pace's standards and his are all that count.

They are not going to pay premium money to guys who play secondary roles at positions where they already have established players.

Why would we pay to keep Nick Williams when they have to pay RRH?

Why would they pay HHCD when they already have HUGE money invested in Eddie?

Why would they over pay Kwik to be the #2 ILB when they have Roquan as the center piece?

 

It isn't about not having money. It is about not sinking it into positions where you already have talent and big contracts.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

They are not going to pay premium money to guys who play secondary roles at positions where they already have established players.

Why would we pay to keep Nick Williams when they have to pay RRH?

Why would they pay HHCD when they already have HUGE money invested in Eddie?

Why would they over pay Kwik to be the #2 ILB when they have Roquan as the center piece?

 

It isn't about not having money. It is about not sinking it into positions where you already have talent and big contracts.

Let's start with HHC-D.  The answer is they won't.  Not with the very likely possibility he can be replaced by a vet FA or a rookie draftee for what they paid for that position in 2019 or far less.  I never advocated re-signing HHC-D to begin with.

If Pace can keep Nick Williams it won't be for much more than he was paid in 2019 which was $895k cash but only $735k cap.  And you're paying him as a backup DT/NT for Goldman and Hicks whereas RRH is primarily a 5 tech DE.  IMHO it wouldn't be wise to pay much more than that for a backup who won't see many snaps unless Hicks or Goldman are injured.  If Williams gets offers for far more he'll sign elsewhere and we'll find another guy who can fill that role just like we found Williams as a vet FA.  So it's a 50/50 deal.

As for Kwiatkoski Pace is gonna have to pay him as a starter if he intends to keep him so I would contend he's not a #2 ILB at all but rather one of two starters.  We don't really have a single centerpiece ILB we have two each as important as the other. I believe at the very least it will need to be a deal that's in the same range as we were paying Trevathan which is where I came up with the $7-$8 mil AAV. 

Maybe Pace can get it done for less if he can wrap it up before FA but if the rumors about GB's interest are true what's the chances a deal gets done before Kwit's agent can hear GBs offer which can't happen officially 'til March 16th.  I'm only ball parking a number based on what we gave DT four years ago and the main reason he's getting more than Smith is because Roquan is still playing under his rookie deal for a little less than $3 mil in cash which is all the more reason that if we want Kwit we should lock him up for another two years.

Using the rationale that we shouldn't pay Kwit because we pay Smith makes no sense.  We need two good ILBs just as we needed very good DL so both Goldman and Hicks got very nice extensions despite the fact that Hicks appears to be a higher impact guy.  I'd call Kwit's impact as a replacement for either Smith or DT as having been top shelf.  The kid has earned a new deal from us and within reason I'd like to see him get it.  So IMHO Kwit isn't a secondary player and if you believe he is were world's apart in our opinions of him.

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I personally don’t think that Nick Kwiatkowski is the difference between being top 10 or not. I think our pass rush issues outside of 52 are the biggest factor. 

@abstract_thoughthas a point though.

We need a new full time boundary corner to be at least as good as Prince was.  I don't know if anyone we have will be as good as 2017 or 2018 Prince, but I think we have corners right now as good as 2019 Prince so letting him go was right move.  

A new safety to play as well as HHCD did (I think he played pretty good - though @soulman has a point - a true box safety may be a better fit with Jackson.  Jackson seems to excel best when he can hang back and try to make big plays in passing game.  

Trevathan play has dropped off a bit and Kwiat played well in reg season last year, but we have seen him taken advantage of last year and in pre season football.  I think losing either one or even both is not make or break Bears defense as long as Roquan Smith comes to play this year, recovers from surgery and doesn't have new personal issues.  None of that is a given.  

Biggest problem is we have zero quality edge depth and Floyd is not generating adequate pass rush opposite Mack.  Pace has been trying to find a guy forever and 

I think the biggest key to a good Bears defense is we need Hicks and Goldman to be healthy and for Nichols to step up his play.   When we lose big guys up front everything else is effected negatively.  If we have our DL healthy and Nick Williams then our 2nd ILB isn't really that important whoever he is.  Over paying for a 2nd ILB would be a mistake with so many needs.

 

 

 

 

[abstract_thought]

36 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

@abstract_thoughthas a point though.

We need a new full time boundary corner to be at least as good as Prince was.  I don't know if anyone we have will be as good as 2017 or 2018 Prince, but I think we have corners right now as good as 2019 Prince so letting him go was right move.  

A new safety to play as well as HHCD did (I think he played pretty good - though @soulman has a point - a true box safety may be a better fit with Jackson.  Jackson seems to excel best when he can hang back and try to make big plays in passing game.  

Trevathan play has dropped off a bit and Kwiat played well in reg season last year, but we have seen him taken advantage of last year and in pre season football.  I think losing either one or even both is not make or break Bears defense as long as Roquan Smith comes to play this year, recovers from surgery and doesn't have new personal issues.  None of that is a given.  

Biggest problem is we have zero quality edge depth and Floyd is not generating adequate pass rush opposite Mack.  Pace has been trying to find a guy forever and 

I think the biggest key to a good Bears defense is we need Hicks and Goldman to be healthy and for Nichols to step up his play.   When we lose big guys up front everything else is effected negatively.  If we have our DL healthy and Nick Williams then our 2nd ILB isn't really that important whoever he is.  Over paying for a 2nd ILB would be a mistake with so many needs.

They don't have money to get a starting CB2, SS, and ILB let alone add depth at EDGE. It's not a matter of losing 1 guy. It's that the Bears have lost Callahan, Amos, Prince, Trevathan, and Kwiatkowski with virtually no way to replace them with comparably reliable players.

And while guys like KPL and Roberson offer upside, it's hard to count on them to live up to the standard of play of Trevathan/Prince.