Jump to content

Carr vs Dalton, A Complete and Excellent Analysis


soulman

Recommended Posts

5 Reasons Andy Dalton fits Chicago Bears more than Derek Carr

 
by Parker Hurley 9 hours ago

https://beargoggleson.com/2020/03/04/5-reasons-andy-dalton-fits-chicago-bears-more-than-derek-carr/5/

https%3A%2F%2Fbeargoggleson.com%2Fwp-con
 

1. Instant fit with the offense

If the Bears do add Andy Dalton, he will not be guaranteed a starting spot. However, he would have a good chance of winning it. The biggest thing that Dalton would have going for him is his familiarity with the offense.

No, Matt Nagy is not going to overhaul his entire offense because of the hire of Bill Lazor. However, Andy Dalton is very familiar with Bill Lazor’s concepts, having worked with him for two seasons in Cincy.

The biggest takeaway from Dalton and Lazor was that Dalton excelled in the RPO game. One reason the Bears hired Lazor is because he was able to take Dalton, who played in a traditional offense for years with the Bengals and took him back to his TCU days with RPO action. It made Dalton much more comfortable.

Matt Nagy has been looking to incorporate more RPOs in his offense. One of the few times he did not knock Mitch Trubisky throughout the year was his decisiveness on RPOs. Is his familiarity the end all, be all? Absolutely not. Will Dalton excelling in RPOs be something Lazor will bring up? Yes. The reality is that we do not know how Carr will work in a new offense, and he does not have that familiar.

So, throughout their careers, neither separate themselves statistically. Carr is the younger option, but with that comes a higher price tag, but in cap space, trade value, and long-term commitment if things go south.

Beyond that, Dalton has accomplished much more, and has playoff experience, albeit not wonderful, it is experience that Carr lacks. He has shown that when he has a healthy A.J. Green and a healthy offensive line that he can get a team there, Carr has his star receiver traded because the two could not get on the same page.

Both of these players are huge risks, and neither is likely the answer. If you had to choose between Derek Carr and Andy Dalton, Dalton is a better choice.

Chicago Bears, Andy Dalton
 

Overall Production

It is worth repeating that Dalton was with a head coach who was not attached to him, lost the majority of his offensive line, and lost A.J. Green. With that in mind, Derek Carr was more productive in 2019. However, when looking at the bigger picture, they are pretty similar. Here are their career per-game numbers.

                                                       Pass         Rush
Rk        Player From   To  Cmp  Att   Yds  TD Int  Sk  Yds  Att Yds  TD
1     Derek Carr 2014 2019 22.6 35.2 242.5 1.5 0.7 1.8 11.1  1.9 5.3 0.0
2    Andy Dalton 2011 2019 20.7 33.5 237.5 1.5 0.9 2.1 13.1  3.0 9.2 0.2

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/3/2020.

Over their careers, Carr has a 6.26 ANY/A while Dalton has a 6.06 ANY/A. If you take out that poor 2019 in an awful situation, his ANY/A goes up 6.17.

Carr is remembered for a 2016 season where he garnered MVP consideration, but the year before Andy Dalton was a potential MVP as well. He had the Bengals as a one-seed and broke his thumb. When comparing their career years, Dalton was a bit more efficient, but Carr had better accounting numbers due to more attempts.

Dalton hurt his thumb, while Carr injured his back in that career year. Neither got back to that peak. While Carr did do it one more year recently, here are their per-game numbers since their injuries ruined their career years.

                                                       Pass         Rush
Rk        Player From   To  Cmp  Att   Yds  TD Int  Sk  Yds  Att Yds  TD
1     Derek Carr 2017 2019 22.7 33.6 246.8 1.3 0.7 2.1 12.4  1.6 4.1 0.1
2    Andy Dalton 2016 2019 21.4 34.9 242.6 1.4 0.8 2.5 16.5  2.4 8.1 0.1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/3/2020.

Essentially the same. What can break the tie are the things mentioned previously. Dalton has been better at force-feeding star receivers such as Allen Robinson. Dalton is going to come at a lower price. Dalton has played in the playoffs.

Andy Dalton has also played in cold-weather games. Playing in the AFC North, Dalton has gone to Baltimore and won games in December. Derek Carr is 2-9 as a starter when the weather dips below just 50, and when it goes below 40, he is 0-4 with a 51% completion rate. We are not even talking 30 degrees.

Beyond that, Carr’s stats can be inflated. This goes back to why he has to be blamed for losing games. Carr gets relief for the Raiders losing because his defense has been weak. However, his stats also inflate because his team gets down.

His stats also can be inflated due to his ability to check the ball down. Go back to their career years; Dalton averaged 8.4 yards per attempt; Carr averaged 7, they had similar yards because Carr had so many more attempts.

Carr averages 6.2 intended air yards per pass attempt. Andy Dalton averages 8.1 yards down the field per attempt. Carr has an aggressiveness rating of 11%, while Dalton is at 20%. Only Duck Hodges was less aggressive than Carr in 2019.

Carr is conservative and completes easy passes while his team is trailing. That is how you accumulate good stat lines with such a lousy record. With that in mind, and considering the advantage in offensive line play, it is tough to say that Carr has really been better than Dalton.

https%3A%2F%2Fbeargoggleson.com%2Fwp-con
 

Know what feeds you

Fans are going to brush off the record of Carr due to the defense, but are going to cling to Dalton having a terrible 2019 despite losing a top ten pick in Jonah Williams and A.J. Green before the season.

They are also going to say that Carr had a better year in 2019, and he did even not have great weapons. That takes away the idea that Carr had a stud offensive line, with Rodney Hudson, an All-Pro center along with Kolton Miller, Trent Brown, and Gabe Jackson, who had excellent seasons. Richie Incognito had a great year and was brought back because this group propelled a running game that had Josh Jacobs in rookie of the year talk.

The Bengals started a different combination almost every week.

The argument for Carr will be that he did not have a star-level player to throw to, but, the reality is that Carr used to have an elite number one receiver. The Raiders traded him because he did not work out well with Carr.

Amari Cooper hit the ground running with the Dallas Cowboys, and is expected to break the bank this offseason. He is not an A.J. Green type talent, is he?

Well, with Dak Prescott as his quarterback, Amari Cooper has averaged 5.3 receptions for 76.6 yards per game. He also averaged a touchdown per game on 7.8 targets per game.

With Derek Carr, Cooper averaged 4.3 receptions per game for 61.2 yards per game and less than 0.2 touchdowns per game. Is Prescott that much better than Carr? His catchable target rate dropped over the past two years.

A.J. Green averaged 5.4 receptions for 80 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. Cooper with Prescott is about as productive as Green with Dalton. Cooper with Carr is a bit of a drop off from there.

The big difference is just the idea of trusting that player. Prescott has an aggressive rating of 18%, Dalton at 20%, which means they will throw into tight windows. Carr is at 11%, which shows that he does not trust his man in contested situations. He moves on to a safer option, even if it is not dynamic like Green or Cooper. Would this frustrate an Allen Robinson similar to how it frustrated Cooper? We know Trubisky will throw to Robinson even if he is not open.

Do not discount the offensive line and loss of A.J. Green when thinking of what happened to Dalton in 2019. He is a player who knows how to feed a big-time weapon and has proven to be more comfortable throwing it up for a threat such as Allen Robinson more than Carr.

Chicago Bears, Do
 

Been there and won games

I am not one who firmly believes in quarterback wins. Still, over a long period, one would be crazy not to understand that more than any other position, a quarterback has the most significant effect on the outcome of each and every game.

With that in mind, many will bash Andy Dalton for his 0-4 playoff record. That is why the Bears have to prepare to move on if the move does not work. However, the only reason Derek Carr does not get the playoff record jokes is because he is 28 years old, and he has yet to play in the playoffs.

Yes, I know, he broke his leg in his best year and was injured for a playoff start, but Andy Dalton missed a playoff start at home against the Steelers as well after breaking his hand. We will get into more of that later, but if we are counting those Dalton has led five playoff brigades, while Carr has led one.

Do Bears fans really want the first playoff game of Carr’s career to be with them? Heck, he has been in fewer pressure moments than Mitch Trubisky.

Do not bring up the fact that the Raiders are a poorly run franchise, either. We are talking about the Cincinnati Bengals. The sustained success that Dalton had in the regular season in the same division as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens is not commended enough.

You can blame the defense, the coaching, anything you want, the fact is that over the long term Andy Dalton is 70-61-2 as a starter. That includes 2-11 in 2019, which is a situation where a new coach lost his starting left tackle, right tackle, a star wide receiver, and decided to start a rebuild process without worrying about the quarterback he had no association with.

Derek Carr is 39-55 as a starter if Dalton went 2-11 again and Carr went 11-2 in. 2020, Carr still would have a much worse record as a starter. Everyone wants to compare Ryan Tannehill to Carr, but even Tannehill was 42-46 as a starter in Miami. These are the Dolphins and Bengals winning much more than Derek Carr because of their quarterback.

At some point, you have to realize that a player is who he is. Dalton may not be great and has come up small in huge moments, but Carr has gone a long period of time putting up numbers in garbage time after losing efforts.

Do Bears fans really want the first playoff game of Carr’s career to be with them? Heck, he has been in less pressure moments than Mitch Trubisky.

 

Cost and control

Derek Carr is 28, and Andy Dalton is 32. While it can be argued there is more upside to Carr; both quarterbacks are who they are at this point. There are three outcomes from trading for either. It could push Trubisky to a new height, it could see them coming in and having success, or it could blow up in their face.

When it comes to the cost of these two quarterbacks who have similar potential outcomes, Dalton is going to go at a lower price and less long-term commitment.

With Dalton, the Bengals have told him that they will work with him to find a trade partner of his choosing. Dalton did a lot of good for the Bengals franchise, and they are not interested in a messy divorce. They also know that they have to trade him, as Joe Burrow is coming to town. They are resigned to taking less than market value to make sure Dalton is happy with his landing spot.

For the Raiders, they are going to play their hand close to the vest. They may be interested in Tom Brady, but that is a one-year fix. As they get closer to the NFL draft, they are going to want to use Derek Carr as a bargaining chip. The Raiders will hold out for value and will look for a deal like the Chiefs got for Alex Smith. They do not care where Carr lands, they want the highest bidder.

Beyond that, Derek Carr is going to be signed through the 2022 season, while Dalton has one year left. That is going to make Dalton less valuable in terms of trade assets, but that helps the Bears both ways. Carr has potential outs, but the Bears would have to take on the majority of a $21 and $22 million cap hit over the next two years.

Dalton has a 2020 cap hit of $17 million. However, if Dalton is confident in himself, he could take an extension with the Bears, which could lower his cap hit, but keep him with the Bears as long as Carr. The downside for Dalton would be if he lost his job to Trubisky, he would be stuck in the backup role. The plus side is that if he does win a starting job against Trubisky, he knows that he can come back and improve his stock with continuity. Beyond that, teams have paid that type of money for a quarterback competition before.

Lastly, there is a high degree of possibility either acquisition does not work out well. If they do not extend Dalton, they can let him compete with Trubisky for one year and move on. They finally have a first-round pick in 2021 and can clear out Dalton and Trubisky.

By trading for Carr, the Bears would have to start him over Trubisky due to the cap hit they are absorbing. If Carr does not work out in 2020, they cannot just go back to Trubisky. They almost have to run it back with him in 2021. Bringing in a rookie in 2021 to compete with Carr is a worse situation than cutting all ties after this year and moving on with a new room.

Overall, Dalton will come at a cheaper trade price, will have less cap hindrance, and is easier to get out of if it does not work out. He is a much safer decision.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those who have already made up there minds this may not be for you at all so feel free to ignore 'cause you will anyway whether you read it or not. :P

But for those who may still be thinking about all of the possibilities I'll just leave this here in case you might want to read it.  Kinda like your wife might leave her Cosmo on your night stand open to the article on how to be a more patient lover.  LOLOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, johndeere1707 said:

I think you guys should do it 😃

 

Dalton and a 5th

for 

2nd

Not for a 2nd. For a 4th tho I might, as long as his contract gets restructured and Cincinnati is willing to pay a portion of his salary.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, soulman said:

Almost 30 views and not even a single comment on whether someone thinks Hurley has nailed this pretty well or he's completely full of ****?  LOL

I am firmly in the Dalton over Carr camp and this just solidifies it even more.

Carr is average and very conservative.  Not a good fit for this team and will cost too much.  

I don't know how he gained so much clout in some Bears fans' minds when the majority of his current fan base doesn't think too highly of him.

I'd much rather Mitch Trubisky for one more season if it means getting us a top-10 draft pick vs being another middling average team with Derek Carr.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, johndeere1707 said:

I think you guys should do it 😃

 

Dalton and a 5th

for 

2nd

How 'bout a 5th and Cincy eats about half of his 2020 salary?

No one whose planning on staying in his GM job long is gonna give up a 2nd round pick for Andy Dalton.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I am firmly in the Dalton over Carr camp and this just solidifies it even more.

Carr is average and very conservative.  Not a good fit for this team and will cost too much.  

I don't know how he gained so much clout in some Bears fans' minds when the majority of his current fan base doesn't think too highly of him.

I'd much rather Mitch Trubisky for one more season if it means getting us a top-10 draft pick vs being another middling average team with Derek Carr.

I just thought Hurley did the best job of analyzing both and their fit in Chicago from every possible angle anyone could based on whatever knowledge we have available as non-insiders.

Maybe the best point that he made is both QBs are who they are.  There is no more upside in either that wouldn't simply be influenced by being on a somewhat better team in an offense that better suits them.  So where the idea that Carr has all this upside comes from I have no idea.  If Gruden felt that Carr was just one season away from taking LV to a Super Bowl why would he trade Carr for a one year deal with Brady?  It makes no sense at all.  Gruden knows Carr isn't "that guy" which is why he'd be willing to trade him if he can.

Cincy not only wants to trade Dalton now but they also would like to find a team he can be comfortable with going to and for several reasons the Bears would seem to be a fit.  I can't conceive of anywhere else he would do and be named an immediate starter either so wherever he ends up he'll be competing for a #1 spot.  Bill Lazor is here as OC and in ARob he'd have another solid #1 WR and a very good defense on the other side of the ball.  His only obstacle to a #1 spot is Mitch whose on his last chance at keeping it.

If Brady ends up in Tenn. that means Tannehill would also become a UFA along with Mariota but it's tough to believe either would be a better choice.  Mariota may come cheaper but he's basically v2.0 of Mitch right now and Tannehill will in all likelihood join Bridgewater as the priciest option on the market so in either case signing one of them means no more Mitch and nothing we've heard so far indicates that's gonna happen.  It's still gonna be Mitch's job to lose from day one forward so sayeth both Pace and Nagy.

So in my book it pretty much comes down to Dalton or Keenum and of the two I see Dalton as the better guy.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, johndeere1707 said:

Honestly though I think Dalton is worth around a 4th round pick 

Possibly depending on the money end of the deal but the only 4th the Bears have is compensatory pick at the end of the round which isn't all that much lower that their 5th.  A better deal might be a conditional 2021 pick or picks based on how much Dalton plays.  Due to Dalton's $17 mil + salary this isn't and easy deal to structure especially when others know that if the can't trade him they'll release him.

The bottom line in any trade the Bears would make is how much of Dalton's 2020 salary Cincy would be willing to eat and my guess is other teams are looking at it much the same way.  As it stands even if the cut his salary in half with some kind of a bonus payment unless he can be extended he's a one year rental QB and those guy aren't worth much in trade so even a 4th is stretching it these day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, soulman said:

Almost 30 views and not even a single comment on whether someone thinks Hurley has nailed this pretty well or he's completely full of ****?  LOL

He hasn't nailed it. Although "full of ****" isn't really accurate, either. 

21 hours ago, soulman said:

While it can be argued there is more upside to Carr; both quarterbacks are who they are at this point.

And that's why. He's calling this basic defense of Carr ridiculous. I'd argue that we're pretty sure what Dalton is as a player--while Carr still has potential to be a little bit better in the right circumstances...and was better than Dalton in the first place. 

However, it's not really a big ball of conjecture to get into. If Brady doesn't go to Vegas, Carr's still a Raider, at least for another season. Either Carr OR Dalton should make Bears fans happy, as we'd know we have a realistic chance at a Super Bowl. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, johndeere1707 said:

I would think if the Bengals are taking on any money the pick would be higher. I’m not quite sure the Bears are actually the team he’ll end up on. I’m thinking the Colts or Patriots (depending on Brady) might be better choices. 

Depends on how much money they're willing to take on.  If it's none IMHO they'll have a tough time even getting a 7th for him.  Anyone whose willing to accept him with his $17 mil intact and with one year left on his deal is IMHO gonna want an extension done before they commit and it will in all likelihood be somewhere he'll start.  As a number 2 he's worth maybe $10 mil tops to a team like Chicago where he's coming to compete for a #1 spot and then a new contract.

I could see him on the Pats if Brady leaves them for Tenn and that maybe a 50/50 deal right now.  Brady is the cork in the QB dike right now.  What he elects to do will end up determining what opportunities others may have and knowing Brady he loves the intrigue.  Gonna be tough to know much of anything 'til we get closer to "the midnight hour".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For me the question isn’t whether Dalton at a salary we can accept is worth a 4th or 5th round pick (I don’t think he is, coming off the worst season of his career and knowing he’ll just be cut anyway). The real question is whether Dalton at that cost is a better fallback option for us to Mitch than Keenum at a comparable price or less but for no draft pick compensation at all, which is a resounding no for me. Of all the “experienced” options as a backup to Mitch (so excluding those who would come in as the starter) the one that makes the most sense will always be Mariota because he’s the only one with potential upside.

Let’s be real though - all are almost surely bridge guys if called upon. Even if Mitch fails and we hit HUGE with the backup pulling a 2020 Tannehill, are we committing long term to any of those guys? Tennessee sure doesn’t seem eager to commit to Tannehill. Would we really be any different? I’m highly skeptical, and if Pace wouldn’t commit even in a best case scenario like what TEN had with Tannehill then he shouldn’t trade for any of them and should just sign his guy of choice in FA. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For me the question isn’t whether Dalton at a salary we can accept is worth a 4th or 5th round pick (I don’t think he is, coming off the worst season of his career and knowing he’ll just be cut anyway). The real question is whether Dalton at that cost is a better fallback option for us to Mitch than Keenum at a comparable price or less but for no draft pick compensation at all, which is a resounding no for me. Of all the “experienced” options as a backup to Mitch (so excluding those who would come in as the starter) the one that makes the most sense will always be Mariota because he’s the only one with potential upside.

Let’s be real though - all are almost surely bridge guys if called upon. Even if Mitch fails and we hit HUGE with the backup pulling a 2020 Tannehill, are we committing long term to any of those guys? Tennessee sure doesn’t seem eager to commit to Tannehill. Would we really be any different? I’m highly skeptical, and if Pace wouldn’t commit even in a best case scenario like what TEN had with Tannehill then he shouldn’t trade for any of them and should just sign his guy of choice in FA. 

I am not sure the Tannehill thing is not a success if they don’t commit to him long term.

They were in the AFC Title game with a shot to go to the Super Bowl.

I would give up our 4th round pick for the next 5 years if we got that type of playoff run.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...