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Vegas' Don't have a clue Mock....


vegas492

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Thought I would whip one up and see what happens....

Current Cap Space, $18.5M.

Gotta Say Goodbye to....

James Graham.  To be fair, when you lumber on the field, you are James.  Jimmie could run.  Savings, $8M.

Lane Taylor.  From Hot Garbage to starter to solid player.  Jenkins is better and Patrick signed a nice deal to backup interior spots.  Savings, $4.6M

Re-signings other than Crosby.

Bulaga.  3 years.  $40M.  Swallow hard and shore up the line.  $10M hit in year one.

Ervin.  750k.  Why not.  

All the ERFA's.

But wait...Packers extend RB Aaron Jones for 2 years, making him a Packer for 3 years.  Let's say extension is for $20M.  Cap hit of $5.5M this year.  Not sure how to work out that deal, but let's roll with it.  Gives him some guaranteed money, lets him hit free agency at age 27-28.

Leaves about $14.5M to work with.

FREE AGENCY

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A'Shawn Robinson.  Age 25.  4 years, $30M.  $6M cap hit in year one.  I liked him coming out.  Detroit kills a lot of careers.  Thinking he's a solid kid to join the DL and pair with Clark.  Gives us a little length and is at an age that Gute seems to like.

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Patrick Onwuasor, Ravens.  27 years old.  Hit gold with a Raven last year.  Might as well try it again.  4 years.  $21M.  Cap hit of $5M in year one.  Special thanks to Spotrac for assisting with that contract.

And that does it for free agency, folks.  Got two tier 2 or tier 3 guys, young with some upside.  Wanted a WR, didn't like the current crop out there.  Bought the defense.

Thinking GB is $3.5M under the cap.

...now for the Draft.

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Round 1 Pick 30--Denzel Mims WR/Baylor.  Yah, I know he's ranked lower.  I know that CBS has Hamler, Jefferson, Reagon, Aiyuk and Shenault ranked ahead of him.  But he has size.  With speed and a great 3 cone.  And he's a senior with a baby girl.  We like big WR's.  He's big.  Can run and is quick.  BTW...I hated taking a WR in round one, but it is a very pressing need.  Ideally he's guy to trade down for, but I'm not doing trades.

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Round 2 Pick 62-Jalen Reagor WR/TCU.  There's always a guy who slips some in the draft.  Reagor didn't crush the combine and had limited collegiate production.  Still, explosive wide out who could immediately help the jet sweep package and be a returner.  Since FA didn't address the wide out position, might as well grab two early.

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Round 3 (Pick 94)- Kyle Dugger S/LB Lenoir-Rhyne.  Small school kid, big time game.  Crushed the combine.  I'm not sure if he's a safety, or a linebacker.  But I'd try him at both and he'd be a special teams demon right away.  Pettine will find a way to use this kid.

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Round 4 (Pick 136)-Anfernee Jennings EDGE/Alabama. We probably need another EDGE kid.  This one has those long arms and just reminds me of Preston Smith.

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Round 5 (Pick 176)- Darrynton Evans RB/Appalachian State  Man.  Zone runner.  Glides.  Has quickness and is shifty.  Little undersized.  Looks a lot like Aaron Jones to me, so let's grab him.  Also has kick return ability.

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Round 6 (Pick 192)-Willie Gay Jr.  ILB/Mississippi State  Combine workout warrior.  Worth the risk here without a doubt.  At the very least he's on the team and playing specials.  Maybe GB puts his locker next to Rodgers, you know....just for fun.

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Round 6 (Pick 209)-Mitchell Wilcoz TE/South Florida  Eh.  Nearing the end of the draft, wanted another tight end.  Was a tackle his senior year in high school.  Has a chance to make it as a blocking TE.  But he can catch passes, too.   And...he looks a little like Travis Kelce, so he's got that going for him.

 

And whatever is left for the draft.  Getting tired of looking at guys already.

Too lazy for a roster update.  For those wondering about a few things....I feel like backup RT is Light and maybe even Nijman.  Nijman was really raw, but huge with a lot of athletic ability.  And...there are a few dollars left if GB feels like bringing back Marcedes Lewis for yet another year.  I wanted to grab another corner, relatively high, but couldn't do it.  Sullivan graded out pretty good and I'm guessing he's the third corner.  Maybe Jackson pushes him for it.

 

 

 

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I don't know how realistic it is, but I would be incredibly happy with this offseason. You keep the O-line intact, add big-time weapons at WR, improve the DL, bring in one ILB to replace Blake and another to challenge the new guy, add some more tools on defense, and retain one Aaron for the rest of other Aaron's career. Love it.

 

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Nice work. Defense looks much improved

IF you re-sign Bulaga, you probably need a better swing OT than Alex Light/Nijman and you're blessed with an OT- deep draft this year
I'd keep one of the drafted WR's and swap out an OT for the other draft pick. You don't appear to have enough cash left for Veldeer

Note: MLF had something like 50 % of snaps with 2 or fewer WR's on the field per Warren Sharp
And that may be partially due to the lack of talent at WR, but its also a part of his scheme.
Adams, EQ and Lazard + early draft pick + late draft pick + MVS + Kumerow should be fine going into 2020

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

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I wanted an OT.  But couldn't find one that I liked well enough to take there.  I worry about backup tackle, for sure.  Just couldn't find a way to do that.  But, there is some money left over to look at that need.  And it is a need.

I really wanted OT in round one, or round two.  Or a corner in round 2.  I just feel like Reagor is gonna slip a little and it makes sense to invest heavily at WR, since FA is kind of void of talent there.  I especially liked how Mims and Reagor have different skill sets.

Maybe get rid of Ervin with Reagor on the roster and use some of that cash (with what is left) for an "in case of emergency break glass" swing tackle.

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11 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I wanted an OT.  But couldn't find one that I liked well enough to take there.  I worry about backup tackle, for sure.  Just couldn't find a way to do that.  But, there is some money left over to look at that need.  And it is a need.

I really wanted OT in round one, or round two.  Or a corner in round 2.  I just feel like Reagor is gonna slip a little and it makes sense to invest heavily at WR, since FA is kind of void of talent there.  I especially liked how Mims and Reagor have different skill sets.

I feel you and I love the influx of offensive skill positions, but I really think some DPs will be spent in the trenches earlier than that. Esp at OT.

Edited by Arthur Penske
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I have a hard time taking a receiver in round 1 but I can't really argue with the pick, either.  In round 2 or 3 you might be able to land an OT like Prince Tega Wanagho, Ezra Cleveland, or Matthew Peart, all of whom would be good developmental prospects with athletic upside, but I do like the picks you have there.

As far as EDGE goes, I've been stuck on Jonathan Garvin as a mid-late round pick.  Haven't watched Anfernee Jennings at all yet so I can't really comment on him.  Probably time for me to go watch his film.

Darrynton Evans is a definite yes in round 5 if he's there.  Would also love to land Antonio Gibson as an explosive athlete that can do all kinds of things for MLF.  He'd be a nightmare on swing passes, wheel routes, and screens, and can carry the ball as well.  As a pure runner Evans is a safer pick, though.  Wouldn't mind Zach Moss, either, but I don't think he'll get past round 4.

I'd say this is a well thought-out and well done mock.

Edited by MaximusGluteus
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Really liked Mims after his Senior Bowl dominance ala Deebo, and then, Bam blows up the combine. Was hoping he would last until #62, but I doubt it now.  Man, if Reagor is there at #62 I think you have to take him, too much upside to pass on. No way Dugger makes it to #94, I'm hoping Rakewon Davis. Like the Gay pick, his athleticism will be a bonus at a minimum on ST.  I just have a feeling Gutey goes OT in Rd1 and WR Rd2.

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@vegas492  appreciate the work.   Not sure I agree with extending Aaron Jones, and then drafting another RB that is similar in playstyle.  Paying Jones means you want him on the field, so Darrynton Evans likely does not see the field much aside from Special teams.  Granted it is only a 5th round pick, so not much to complain about

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13 hours ago, Redt said:

Really liked Mims after his Senior Bowl dominance ala Deebo, and then, Bam blows up the combine. Was hoping he would last until #62, but I doubt it now.  Man, if Reagor is there at #62 I think you have to take him, too much upside to pass on. No way Dugger makes it to #94, I'm hoping Rakewon Davis. Like the Gay pick, his athleticism will be a bonus at a minimum on ST.  I just have a feeling Gutey goes OT in Rd1 and WR Rd2.

I wanted an OT as well.  But with what was there, I thought WR was better value and I hated that.  Wanted OT in round 2 as well.  But WR had better value, hated that as well.

What I did see is that there were good WR's available in the 3rd and even 4'th rounds.  If I were to do another Mock, I'd probably look harder at OT with the first pick, then look Wr in round 2 as well as round 3 or round 4.

Reagor, though, was just too good to pass up here.  And he could slide due to his combine and lack of production.  He will be an interesting one to watch.

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12 hours ago, squire12 said:

@vegas492  appreciate the work.   Not sure I agree with extending Aaron Jones, and then drafting another RB that is similar in playstyle.  Paying Jones means you want him on the field, so Darrynton Evans likely does not see the field much aside from Special teams.  Granted it is only a 5th round pick, so not much to complain about

Jones would be on a 3 year deal.  Williams in the last year of his deal.  Gute said he wanted another running back, why not grab one who seems eerily similar to Jones.

He's RB3 in year one.  Probably RB for the next 2 years.  Then in his last year, GB can extend or let him play it out as RB1.

I think the goal is to always rotate GB backs to keep Jones fresh and healthy.  So...whether it is this kid or not, I think RB3 gets a few touches early, more if there is an injury.

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I think I'd look at a different body type for RB3, maybe a bigger back similar to Latavius Murray at 6'3 and 230. One of the challenges with the ZBS is getting the tough yards on 3rd and short. Jones wins with vision and shake, but that's not always successful.
I feel like having one Bigger back in the stable might be useful in that arena and I'm not sure Jamaal Williams is that guy

Packers ranked 19th in the league in that category, just up from 22nd the year before

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

Closing out games is another time when the Bigger Back might be useful
Williams is good, but maybe there's better options and it gives MLF another arrow in the quiver

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3 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Jones would be on a 3 year deal.  Williams in the last year of his deal.  Gute said he wanted another running back, why not grab one who seems eerily similar to Jones.

He's RB3 in year one.  Probably RB for the next 2 years.  Then in his last year, GB can extend or let him play it out as RB1.

I think the goal is to always rotate GB backs to keep Jones fresh and healthy.  So...whether it is this kid or not, I think RB3 gets a few touches early, more if there is an injury.

Jones and Evans would be similar RB skill sets.   Assuming signing Jones this year would signal that Williams is not re-signed after his rookie deal expires.  Just thinking it makes some sense to have the RB compliment vs being of similar styles.

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I don't think this is a "don't have a clue" situation. Your FA moves are very reasonable though I think you have to include Veldheer in that mix. 

Still not sold on Mims; he's far too finesse. He did what he needed to do at the Sr. Bowl and Combine, but if you want Reagor, it's either Mims or Reagor at 30. I'll take Reagor any day because of his track record and the fact that he ain't making it to 62. Mims might... I think you drop Mims, move Dugger(who's earned himself 2nd round consideration) and Reagor up a spot and then find the best OT at 94 if not BPA(*check my response to Raymond about the OT situation in the discussion thread). I still think you need to add another IDL before the late Day 3 flier picks; we need a lot of camp competition there. I think Jordan Elliot and Rashan Lawrence are names to consider in the 4th. No need to draft another RB as well. I don't know why everyone is so quick to draft a RB and if we were to draft a RB in this draft, it'd better be JK Dobbins...and we all know that's probably not happening...

 

Edited by Joe
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