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Tetsujin

Are we going to see the return of run-centric offenses soon

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10 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

There is 20+ years of data suggesting that spending resources on RBs is stupid. Its time for you to leave 1995 in the past. 

He says football has always been about winning the passing game. Did you not read his post?

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1 minute ago, Calvert28 said:

He says football has always been about winning the passing game. Did you not read his post?

Obviously thats not correct. There was a time when teams didnt throw at all. But the modern game is pretty much exclusively decided by the most efficient QB on any given sunday. If your QB post a better any/a you have an 85% chance of winning. The run game is only there to help out the pass. 

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7 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Obviously thats not correct. There was a time when teams didnt throw at all. But the modern game is pretty much exclusively decided by the most efficient QB on any given sunday. If your QB post a better any/a you have an 85% chance of winning. The run game is only there to help out the pass. 

QB needs the team to win in the trenches. That has always been true. 

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12 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

QB needs the team to win in the trenches. That has always been true. 

Of course. Blocking and tackling will always be the core of football. Im just stating that you are blocking for your QB. You are trying to tackle the other QB. Thats how you win. 

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3 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

I don't believe that. Most teams are not that dumb. You are telling me that because the Chiefs lost to the Pats in the previous playoff that teams weren't taking a close look at what Mahommes and co were doing going into last year? Teams were just planning for how to put up 20 points on the Pats defense? Some teams may be that dumb, but most aren't.

After this year, every NFC team is going to need a plan for facing the 49ers offense in a playoff game and same for the Ravens and Titans on the AFC side. 

So, you're making a different point here. You're saying that teams need to focus on how to beat the teams that were successful last year. That's a bit more valid. The AFC West absolutely plans to beat KC, the NFC West is absolutely brainstorming how to take out the 49ers, etc. That's reasonable and legitimate. What OP is saying is that teams are going to copy a team like the Titans, which is a completely different matter. After 2018 teams surely considered how to beat the Pats. I don't think, however, that teams looked at KC dominating the Colts and said yes, we need an elite passing game with no defense, just like they had. Similarly, I don't think teams looked at SF dominating GB without passing the ball and are saying yeah, screw the passing game, let's run 60%+ of the time.

Because NFC teams needing to beat the 49ers has nothing to do with shifting to a 60%+ run centric offense. You're confusing needing a plan to stop the 49ers, with trying to copy what the 49ers did to specifically beat the Packers, which are completely different things. OP is suggesting that teams are going to shift to a gameplan like what the 49ers used to beat Minnesota and Green Bay, and like what the Titans used to beat New England and Baltimore. I'm fairly certain those are the only games you'll find in the postseason where a team rushed 60%+ of the time. It's not just that the Chiefs won doing something completely different, it's also that that gameplan fell apart once those teams played the Chiefs. Both teams passed more than they ran against us because at certain points in the game script it became required. Both teams also ran more pass plays than run plays in the regular season, because the same was often the case, and both Jimmy and Tannehill were better in the regular season than many want to give them credit for. OP is suggesting a gameplan that didn't exist for successful teams for like 95% of the 2019 NFL season. It's reactionary hot take non-sense of everyone just looking at a game like Ten/NE or GB/SF and saying holy crap everyone should just do that, it's so easy.

So it isn't just that KC won. It's that the gameplan and roster build OP is referring to fundamentally didn't hold up at the end of the playoff bracket. We got there by virtually ignoring the run game, if we're honest, and the teams that got there by the run wound up being forced to pass and fell out of the playoffs when that happened (Baltimore, Tennessee, and San Fran.) Run heavy only worked against the lesser post season contenders in a small subset of football games.

And everyone seems so ready to acknowledge the difficulty in finding a Mahomes, but no one wants to acknowledge the difficulty in finding the kind of personnel and staff that made those run games successful. You need excellent play calling. You can't have a hole on the OL. You need good blockers at ancillary positions like TE and FB. You need a deep stable of RBs. You also need a defense good enough to not fall behind to where you're forced off script. That's....a lot. And even then, I don't think Balt's run game was what it was without the threat of Lamar. Even Deebo was a huge run game component for San Fran. Most teams don't have Mahomes. Most teams don't have that huge stable of talent either.

Additionally, I do think much of the league is that dumb. But that's beside the point, I suppose.

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15 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

QB needs the team to win in the trenches. That has always been true. 

Trenches =/= run game.

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Posted (edited)

I think some of you guys are missing the key point here and making too much of a black and white argument. As with any offense, whether it be a pass heavy team or run heavy team, it comes down to the efficiency and how many big plays that offense can generate. The three run heavy teams mentioned here in SF/TENN/BAL all ranked high in explosive plays generated. The three QBs of those teams all had YPA in the top 12, with Tannehill/Jimmy G being in the top 3. So if you can build a team with a strong defense and have a run heavy team, it an absolutely work as long as the passing/running offense is hitting on explosive plays at a high level. Obviously if you have a true elite passer, you will build your team differently. But how many of those are there in the league? Think it is easier to build a team like the Niners/Ravens/Titans. 

Edited by J-ALL-DAY

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I like to believe that teams are pretty keen on the fact that the Chiefs have one of the great QB talents in the game right now and trying to replicate that is more or less a fool's errand. 

What team's should be noticing is that effective running games serve as a major boon to your QBs rhythm and success. Ryan Tannehill was a bust before being put in a situation that relieved pressure from him and allowed him to take advantage of efficient pass attempts, thus maximizing his effectiveness. The same is true of Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins (just to name a few, and not implying they are/were busts). 

It's no secret that the impact of an offense's running game massively benefits the situational responsibilities of the QB. Not every team is going to find a Pat Mahomes, and for those who don't, setting up the pass with the run is the most successful alternative approach. 

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I mean...i'd argue we're already seeing a return to some prominent "run-centric" offenses right now.  In so much as i think we're ever going to see teams lean on the run, at least.  Barring some absolutely massive fundamental rule changes...i just don't see us ever getting to 60% rushing in any widespread fashion.  But leaning on the run, and "run first" type offenses are certainly coming into vogue right now.

The Ravens i would absolutely categorize as a "run-centric" offense.  Same for the Niners who were breaking records for low number of passing attempts in playoff games.  The Titans found success as a very run-heavy philosophy.  Plenty of other teams kinda leaning that way and building on variations of those concepts.  I'd wager most of the top offenses right now are at least based on the concept of establishing the run to pass the ball more efficiently.  I think that's going to be the trend we see teams chasing for a while to come.

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not in Kansas City.

KC also showed passing will continue (defeating the Titans vaunted run attack) as the "wave of the future". The NFL wants it. NFL rules have been implemented to support it.

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Why not?

What better way to win the Lombardi Trophy than to bring back the great old Green Bay Packahs Powwuh Sweep, with John Facenda of NFL Films narrating in his stentorian Voice of Doom, as though he were broadcasting World War II?

Then, in the fawth quartah, Baht Stahhhh turned to the powwuh sweep, sending Hohnung and Tayluh surging ovah the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, behind the blocking of Thuhston and Kramuh, an inexorable March to Victory!

packers-legend-jerry-kramer-feels-drew-b

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1 hour ago, bzane said:

Why not?

What better way to win the Lombardi Trophy than to bring back the great old Green Bay Packahs Powwuh Sweep, with John Facenda of NFL Films narrating in his stentorian Voice of Doom, as though he were broadcasting World War II?

Then, in the fawth quartah, Baht Stahhhh turned to the powwuh sweep, sending Hohnung and Tayluh surging ovah the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, behind the blocking of Thuhston and Kramuh, an inexorable March to Victory!

packers-legend-jerry-kramer-feels-drew-b

Because nobody has run the T formation since Joe Gibbs killed it

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