2020 NYJ Offseason version 3.0: Pre-Free Agency/"Build The Wall"

[jetskid007]

Per tradition, this mock is centered on what I have heard and what the research leads me to believe, not necessarily what I want to happen. A few notes on what to expect before we get started: 

• The Jets will come out of the gate seeking to sign their "A-level" free agents. Those players are RT Jack Conklin, LG Joe Thuney, C/G Graham Glasgow, EDGE Dante Fowler, and CB James Bradberry. Ideally, they want to come away with 2-of-5, and they will be thrilled to land 3. I don't think they will sign both Fowler and Bradberry given the amount of resources already invested on the defensive side of the ball, so it's really a one-or-the-other situation with them two. As it stands, the Jets have the least amount of assets invested in their OL (measured by draft capital + money); expect them to be among the top of the league when the offseason is all said and done. 
• Expect the team to be very active during tier 2 and tier 3 of free agency. Remember, Joe Douglas did not build this team, and he's going to want to add his players. These players will include former Ravens, Eagles, Bears, AFC East opponents, and NFC West opponents. I fully expect us to target quite a few Patriots and Eagles players. 
• Jets are going to be active on the trade market. While they will try to avoid sending any elite compensation away, they will look to find ways to get creative in order to add the players they covet.  
• Despite signing a few WRs, the Jets are truly looking to rebuild the position in Gase's image throughout the draft. While there has been so much spoken of regarding turnover on the offensive line, I think we're going to see a more vast turnover at the WR position. 
• I know the figures seem inflated, keep in mind that the new CBA is going to have teams backloading contracts this year. 
• Assume any player not mentioned is leaving other than the exclusive rights guys - they are all brought back. 

 

NFL FREE AGENCY
TRADE: the New York Jets send their 3rd round pick (68) and 2021 3rd round pick to the Washington Redskins for LT Trent Williams and their 2021 4th round pick
TRADE: the New York Jets send their 5th round pick (158) to the Philadelphia Eagles for CB Sidney Jones
5 years, $67.5 million	Graham Glasgow	G/C	Detroit Lions
4 years, $68 million	Dante Fowler	EDGE	Los Angeles Rams
3 years, $52.5 million	Trent Williams	LT	Washington Redskins
3 years, $21 million	Brian Poole	CB	New York Jets
3 years, $19.5 million	Breshad Perriman	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 years, $15 million	Alex Lewis	OL	New York Jets
2 years, $12 million	Jimmy Smith	CB	Baltimore Ravens
2 years, $9 million	Phillip Dorsett	WR	New England Patriots
1 year, $2 million	Timmy Jernigan	DL	Philadelphia Eagles
1 year, $2 million	Anthony Brown	CB	Dallas Cowboys
1 year, $2 million	Maurice Canady	CB	New York Jets
1 year, $2 million	Trevor Siemian	QB	New York Jets
1 year, $2 million	James Burgess	LB	New York Jets
1 year, $2 million	Arthur Maulet	CB	New York Jets
1 year, $2 million	Neville Hewitt	LB	New York Jets
1 year, $1.5 million	Brandon Copeland	LB	New York Jets
1 year, $1.5 million	Rontez Miles	S	New York Jets
1 year, $1.5 million	Joel Haeg	OL	Indianapolis Colts
1 year, $1.3 million	Sidney Jones	CB	Philadelphia Eagles
2020 NFL DRAFT Day 1       TRADE: the New York Jets send their 1st  round pick (11) and 2nd round pick (48) to the Indianapolis Colts for their 1st round pick (13), 2nd round pick (44), and 4th round pick (122) Round 1, No. 13:  Austin Jackson OT USC         Day 2       Round 2, No. 44: KJ Hamler WR Penn State Round 3, No. 79:  Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Michigan         Day 3       Round 4, No. 120: Bradlee Anae EDGE Utah Round 4, No. 122: John Reid CB Penn State Round 5, No. 160:  John Hightower WR Boise State Round 6, No. 191:  Kyle Murphy OL Rhode Island Round 6, No. 211:  Mychal Walker LB Fresno State

 

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENCY
James Robinson	RB	Illinois State
Giovanni Ricci	TE	Western Michigan
Gage Cervenka	OL	Clemson
Frederick Mauigoa	C	Washington State
Kendall Coleman	EDGE	Syracuse
Ray Lima	DT	Iowa State
Chris Orr	LB	Wisconsin
Tino Ellis	CB	Maryland
Kevin McGill	CB	Eastern Michigan
Alex Pechin	P	Bucknell

 

NOTES

• Free agency is a contingency game: like the draft the Jets will enter with clear needs, but their "plan" will be organic in the sense that if they don't sign someone, they may replace that void with 2 other free agents. The big one I've heard is that the Jets are going for Conklin to be a starting T, but the contingency will be Joe Thuney. After them two will be Trent Williams.
• As I outlined earlier it's Fowler or Bradberry (highly doubt both), but one newsworthy nugget I received today: the Jets will be in on EDGE Yannick Ngakoue. Jacksonville is going to trade him, but the question really is at what cost. If we don't land Dante Fowler and we do come away with a solution at T, don't be surprised if the Jets look into potentially swapping the 11th pick for the 20th pick and sending a future 2nd round pick to JAX for Ngakoue. There's also the possibility they do the same for OLB Matthew Judon (probably swap 3rd for 3rd and a future pick), but in this scenario I'm not going down that road since I project they land Fowler instead. 
• I think Joe Douglas is going to band-aid the cornerback position this year. He's going to make a few savvy moves hoping that guys like Sidney Jones and Blessaun Austin take big jumps, but by no means do I think the Jets are going to exit the offseason feeling settled at the position. 
• As far as the draft goes, I've heard the Jets LOVE Austin Jackson and KJ Hamler. It's been suggested that JAX will go OL at 9, so for this mock I'm projecting 3 go in the top 10 and Jackson is taken 13 by the Jets. As far as Hamler - whether you like it or not, better get used to this one. Gase is going to have significant input at the position, and Hamler is a richer version that Mecole Hardman was last year, who Gase also admired. Hardman and Marquise Brown (Hamler is both similarly sized and was similarly used the way they were in college) played all over the formation in 2019 for their respective teams, and I think we should expect the same with Hardman. 
• I think the only WR that will make the 2020 team from the 2019 roster will be Jamison Crowder. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by jetskid007

[jetskid007]

FWIW, in this scenario I would imagine the starting OL would look something like this: 

• LT: Trent Williams - his contract cements him here for 2 years at least, but wouldn't surprise me if the Jets moved on in 2022 and slid Jackson to LT. 
• LG: Austin Jackson - this would come down to whose most comfortable at G between he and Edoga. Lewis could be an option with Jackson at RT as well. 
• C: Graham Glasgow - I think this is where the Jets like him best, but he's going to get paid like a top-tier G. Could move to RG in 2021.
• RG: Brian Winters - Winters will have to prove he's healthy and capable, but expect him to be the front-runner at RG. 
• RT: Chuma Edoga - Again, I think this comes down to a competition between he and Lewis for the 5th spot. 

As far as skill positions... 

• QB: Sam Darnold
• RB: Le'Veon Bell - keep in mind there's a lot of love for some guys currently on the roster as backups (Adams, Dixon)
• TE: Chris Herndon - we'll continue to run plenty of two-TE sets, but Herndon is in for a huge bounce-back year. I'm thinking 60 receptions
• X: Breshad Perriman - he'll directly replace Robby in the offense, but won't be a 95% snap guy like Robby was
• Y: Jamison Crowder - he's the go-to guy in the receiving group
• Z: KJ Hamler - he's going to move all over the formation, so DPJ will get a lot of playing time as the "traditional" Z, with Hightower backing up Perriman. 

One thing I'll say is don't be surprised if the Jets draft a combo of Hamler and DPJ/Pittman/Jefferson and have the latter starting over him. Why? I think the Jets' starting lineup would be more traditional with Hamler being the OKC James Harden versions of a 6th men, playing a number of different roles and often subbing in and out of the lineup kind of the way Mecole Hardman did. The Jets will aim to get him around 50% of the snaps (think between Marquise Brown's 59% and Mecole Hardman's 43%), with reps all across the formation. He's a slot in a traditional NFL offense, but a movement Z in Gase's. 

[rampantjet]

Huh.   I really don't know how to feel about some of this.   I love getting Glasgow.   Every other FA or trade move I have mixed feelings on.   

As far as the draft goes I'm pretty unsure about Jackson.   He just seems like he has a long way to go.  Im not sold on hamler as I get some Tavon Austin vibes.   DPJ is another guy im not sold on.   

Also im not against it,  but signing 2 WRs and drafting 3 seems drastic. 

[rampantjet]

I think I'd be upset if we drafted an OT at 13 to play him at OG

[TheChad]

I can't really comment on what's realistic or not, but I'm happy to acknowledge that you (and most others) know more on that than me.

I would be very happy if this was our offseason. Goal #1 for me is three new starters on the OL, including one coming cheap as a top-level draft pick.

We definitely need to shake up with WR room a bit, and I'm perfectly okay with going with the "bunch of role players" approach. It makes you more resilient to injuries than relying on a star, and spending huge on a WR rarely seems to work out great for anyone. Love taking two WRs in the mid rounds of a deep WR class.

Bringing back our most competent corner in Brian Poole is a big plus too. Personally I'd rather we spent more on higher-tier CBs (though we were burned here recently) and... just don't go near Fowler. So I'm hoping for the Bradberry over Fowler path. I could certainly be wrong, but vaguely decent pass rushers with "potential" get paid like crazy and I highly doubt Fowler will be worth it. He's had one season where he had (or was on pace for) > 8 sacks in his five NFL years, and that was with Aaron Donald basically terrifying the entire OL in front of him. I'd rather have Jordan Jenkins for the difference in asking price and performance.

[Bobby816]

Gosh Im just not a Jackson fan. Especially at 13. But even at 23 I’m not a fan of him. 
 

Besides that’s I like it. I’d like to use a mid late rounder on a RB would be my only other gripe. 

[jetskid007]

5 minutes ago, rampantjet said:

Huh.   I really don't know how to feel about some of this.   I love getting Glasgow.   Every other FA or trade move I have mixed feelings on.   

As far as the draft goes I'm pretty unsure about Jackson.   He just seems like he has a long way to go.  Im not sold on hamler as I get some Tavon Austin vibes.   DPJ is another guy im not sold on.   

Also im not against it,  but signing 2 WRs and drafting 3 seems drastic. 

Arguments valid, just don't shoot the messenger. As far as WR- I think we should be expecting a complete overhaul this year. Adam Gase wants to reshape the whole unit after how poor it was after Robby/Crowder. I think this is part of the reason why they want him back badly- they know its going to be a huge makeover and don't want to make it so hard on Darnold in the process. 

I understand the mixed emotions on Jackson, but he was far more poised than people give him credit for. He's only remembered for the Iowa game, which he wasn't nearly as bad as made out to be. Ideally this would be Wills, but I'm starting to give into the scenario that there will be 3 OTs in the top 10. I think the Jets will have Jackson rated higher than Thomas, even though I don't agree with it. 

I don't know what to believe on Donovan Peoples-Jones. I see the talent and if you watch a highlight clip you feel this guy is a top 50 player, but he was way too inconsistent in college. All I know is the Jets are interested. Maybe as a 4th, maybe as a 2nd. I toyed with trading down to 92 and getting him, but I don't take Gase to be the type who will want to shy away from a player he likes. I think he sees a young Demaryius Thomas in the player, and will try to craft him into a top notch receiver by starting him out as a Z while slowly training him to be an X.

[jetskid007]

9 minutes ago, rampantjet said:

I think I'd be upset if we drafted an OT at 13 to play him at OG

2016: Laremy Tunsil

[rampantjet]

4 minutes ago, jetskid007 said:

2016: Laremy Tunsil

For sure.   So in this scenario Thomas is on the board and we still go Jackson?  

DPJ is certainly a freak,  and he gets the excuse of being held back by his QB, so there is potentially huge upside there. I just think there are tons of safer bets.   Though im not against gambling on huge upside.   

[jetskid007]

10 minutes ago, TheChad said:

I can't really comment on what's realistic or not, but I'm happy to acknowledge that you (and most others) know more on that than me.

I would be very happy if this was our offseason. Goal #1 for me is three new starters on the OL, including one coming cheap as a top-level draft pick.

We definitely need to shake up with WR room a bit, and I'm perfectly okay with going with the "bunch of role players" approach. It makes you more resilient to injuries than relying on a star, and spending huge on a WR rarely seems to work out great for anyone. Love taking two WRs in the mid rounds of a deep WR class.

Bringing back our most competent corner in Brian Poole is a big plus too. Personally I'd rather we spent more on higher-tier CBs (though we were burned here recently) and... just don't go near Fowler. So I'm hoping for the Bradberry over Fowler path. I could certainly be wrong, but vaguely decent pass rushers with "potential" get paid like crazy and I highly doubt Fowler will be worth it. He's had one season where he had (or was on pace for) > 8 sacks in his five NFL years, and that was with Aaron Donald basically terrifying the entire OL in front of him. I'd rather have Jordan Jenkins for the difference in asking price and performance.

I'm so weary of Fowler, but everything I have heard is he's pretty much priority #3 behind Conklin and Thuney. Scarrrry FA who can easily bust. 

I think the Jets will go for this role player approach at WR, but if no one stands out by next year they will be surely in the market for a true #1 receiver. I can easily see Perriman's deal being structured in a way to allow themselves an out in 2021. Don't think that one's going to work out as well as people think it will. 

9 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Gosh Im just not a Jackson fan. Especially at 13. But even at 23 I’m not a fan of him. 
 

Besides that’s I like it. I’d like to use a mid late rounder on a RB would be my only other gripe. 

My feelings are the same, but I think the NFL is chalking up 2019 as a year where Jackson faced intense adversity yet still overcame. It sounds like there's a real shot he's the 3rd or 4th tackle off the board. In fact, while I was told that Jackson is a guy I should circle for the Jets, it came with the caveat "if he's there", implying he could go earlier. 

I think the Jets will be looking at Jet Anderson closely, but I think a lot of RBs are going to fly off the boards late in round 3, early round 4. There will be a flurry of them who come off the board in those compensation picks. Backup RB is a position I can see the Jets addressing late in camp, and it wouldn't shock me if Powell is back after the draft

[jetskid007]

1 minute ago, rampantjet said:

For sure.   So in this scenario Thomas is on the board and we still go Jackson?  

DPJ is certainly a freak,  and he gets the excuse of being held back by his QB, so there is potentially huge upside there. I just think there are tons of safer bets.   Though im not against gambling on huge upside.   

Again, don't shoot the messenger. 

[Bobby816]

8 minutes ago, jetskid007 said:

I'm so weary of Fowler, but everything I have heard is he's pretty much priority #3 behind Conklin and Thuney. Scarrrry FA who can easily bust. 

I think the Jets will go for this role player approach at WR, but if no one stands out by next year they will be surely in the market for a true #1 receiver. I can easily see Perriman's deal being structured in a way to allow themselves an out in 2021. Don't think that one's going to work out as well as people think it will. 

My feelings are the same, but I think the NFL is chalking up 2019 as a year where Jackson faced intense adversity yet still overcame. It sounds like there's a real shot he's the 3rd or 4th tackle off the board. In fact, while I was told that Jackson is a guy I should circle for the Jets, it came with the caveat "if he's there", implying he could go earlier. 

I think the Jets will be looking at Jet Anderson closely, but I think a lot of RBs are going to fly off the boards late in round 3, early round 4. There will be a flurry of them who come off the board in those compensation picks. Backup RB is a position I can see the Jets addressing late in camp, and it wouldn't shock me if Powell is back after the draft

Heck I’d prefer Lucas Niang even to Jackson.

[jetskid007]

12 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Heck I’d prefer Lucas Niang even to Jackson.

That's a little much for me. 

My biggest problem with Jackson is that he doesn't play with much strength. How will that transition? One would be naive to think that the bone marrow treatment didn't effect him a bit, and bulking up to 322 + putting up 27 bench reps could help convince teams that he has the ability to better incorporate upper body strength to his game, but I can't deny that it's something that bothers me. 

Fact is that this guy is right up there in "freak" status with Becton and Wirfs. While raw, he's nowhere near as raw as people say- this is not a Kolton Miller player who is all talent with little production. His feet are unbelievable, and that's what this staff values most. They will see someone who can develop into a top-notch OL in the NFL 

Personally, I would go Andrew Thomas, trade down, and yes even select Henry Ruggs over him. But this is what I am hearing, and I by no means will claim to be a better evaluator of OL talent than Joe Douglas apparently is.

Edited March 16, 2020 by jetskid007

[jetskid007]

Duplicate

Edited March 16, 2020 by jetskid007

[jetskid007]

For those of you who are interested in knowing how the top 12 picks...

1. CIN - QB Burrow 
2. WAS - DE Young 
3. MIA* - QB Tagovailoa
4. NYG - LB Simmons
5. DET - CB Okudah 
6. LAC - OT Becton 
7. NE* - QB Herbert 
8. ARI - WR Lamb
9. JAX - OL Wills
10. CLE - OL Wirfs
11. IND* - WR Jeudy 
12. LV - WR Ruggs

Miami trade: I think Miami doesn't feel as pressured as everyone things they do re: Tua. I think they like Herbert, but lets not forget that they outwardly "tanked" for Tua in the first place, and if it weren't for the injuries he could be out of reach. I think Detroit will have an offer from Jacksonville to move up for him, and possibly Indianapolis as well. DET takes a below market deal from Miami (#5, #56, #70, #152 for #3) in order to stick in the top 5. 

New England trade: now this is one that would explode the draft, but I also don't think its very farfetched. Belichick wants to begin another dynasty and McDaniels is his likely successor - but how do you keep him in NE? Get him a legitimate QB to replace Brady. With Carolina very much rebuilding, the Patriots send their 1st (23), 3rd (87), 3rd (98), 2021 1st, and LB Dont'a Hightower to the Panthers for their 1st (7). Patriots would be without many day 1 picks, but they'd still have a 8 to work with on Day 3. They get out of Hightower's contract and give the Panthers a culture-building player to replace Keuchly. As far as why they will love Herbert: he is the new-era version of QB that Parcells and Belichick famously have looked for in that he's a mobile QB with incredible tools, but Justin Herbert also passes the Bill Parcells' QB Rules test in 7 out of 7 categories. Watch this one closely... I think the Pats will do everything they can to land Herbert this offseason.