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Lions sign OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai (5 year, $50 M)


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3 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Wait Wait Wait...I'm calling a time out... Weren't you the one saying you had to include Wagner's wage as well that Sllim was arguing against, lol?  If that's the case you are ultimately paying V 15 million vs 11.9 million.  If that's the case does it still hold true for you?  I'm not trying to trap you or anything, just interested in your thoughts on the overall investment and if it is in the right direction and want to make sure the logic is consistent throught the whole thing.

I mean.. to Sllim's point, the dead cap is only there for the one year. We're also looking at a collective $15M for Vaitai + Wagner vs $25M for Conklin/Wagner (Conklin's APY this year is $20M). I still factor in the dead money but ultimately, Vaitai is cheaper than Wagner when all is said and done outside of this year. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

The thing is, he's not actually worse than Wagner. He's the same/better in pass protection than Wagner (marginally), while he's a significant improvement over Wagner in the run game. 

He's nearly 27 years old and his average is $10M/year while Wagner was earning $11.9M at 30 years old. 

So basically, he's younger, same at pass protection, way better in run blocking and is slightly cheaper APY. 

This sums it up.

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1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

This sums it up.

It doesnt though.  It is still a projection/hope he is better than Wagner.  His 400 snaps at RT over 4 years do not mean he is better.  He might be. And I dont think anyone is mad we signed him, just stupid to pay that much with so much unknown and having proven nothing. Its a really big and long contract for a RT who sucks at pass protection and hasn't started more than three games in a year since 2017.  We don't know he is better than Wagner.  Especially in our system with our coaches.  I like adding a run blocker, but not at the expense of our pass protection.  Stafford is beat up enough, lets not make it worse on him. 

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1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

It doesnt though.  It is still a projection/hope he is better than Wagner.  His 400 snaps at RT over 4 years do not mean he is better.  He might be. And I dont think anyone is mad we signed him, just stupid to pay that much with so much unknown and having proven nothing. Its a really big and long contract for a RT who sucks at pass protection and hasn't started more than three games in a year since 2017.  We don't know he is better than Wagner.  Especially in our system with our coaches.  I like adding a run blocker, but not at the expense of our pass protection.  Stafford is beat up enough, lets not make it worse on him. 

I don't think it has to be at the expense of pass protection. That was the big selling point about Hockenson, a TE that can both block and catch. Have Hockenson chip and it'll buy plenty of time while still giving Stafford a target in the passing game.

As for the "projection/hope": I guess that applies to all free agents. Based on the information we have available, I believe that Vaitai is an upgrade over Wagner.

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9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

It doesnt though.  It is still a projection/hope he is better than Wagner.  His 400 snaps at RT over 4 years do not mean he is better.  He might be. And I dont think anyone is mad we signed him, just stupid to pay that much with so much unknown and having proven nothing. Its a really big and long contract for a RT who sucks at pass protection and hasn't started more than three games in a year since 2017.  We don't know he is better than Wagner.  Especially in our system with our coaches.  I like adding a run blocker, but not at the expense of our pass protection.  Stafford is beat up enough, lets not make it worse on him. 

I mean.. adding any player is going to be a projection. Especially younger players without any mileage. Everything that we do from the draft to free agency is based on projections. 

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5 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I don't think it has to be at the expense of pass protection. That was the big selling point about Hockenson, a TE that can both block and catch. Have Hockenson chip and it'll buy plenty of time while still giving Stafford a target in the passing game.

As for the "projection/hope": I guess that applies to all free agents. Based on the information we have available, I believe that Vaitai is an upgrade over Wagner.

I want to see Vaitai be the guy the Lions obviously expect him to be with this contract. Honestly, when looking at the numbers and projecting them over Wagner's # of snaps + the contract, I can understand where guys like @Sllim Pickens have pause. Vaitai isn't a slam dunk. There are things that I do like, especially as an upgrade over Wagner in the run game. I don't have the time (like I'm sure most of you) to watch lots of Vaitai tape and get an in depth understanding of what they probably see in the guy. The hard numbers/projections give me some level of optimism and then I do put my faith into BQ/MP that he's the right guy for what they want/need. 

The way that I compare things is if you look at the average investor vs managed portfolios. If you're Joe Blow investor, you have limited time, capital and human resources to do the right job vs large organizations with hundreds of analysts of all of the top minds in the country, with their entire day focused on one company, one sector, etc. with support staff, et al. Joe Blow might get lucky a few times but the majority do not. These guys have full on scouting departments, interns, etc. If they want to give him $10M/year... they see something in him that we don't know about. Hopefully they hit it right on the money, otherwise they'll be looking for new jobs. 

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48 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I want to see Vaitai be the guy the Lions obviously expect him to be with this contract. Honestly, when looking at the numbers and projecting them over Wagner's # of snaps + the contract, I can understand where guys like @Sllim Pickens have pause. Vaitai isn't a slam dunk. There are things that I do like, especially as an upgrade over Wagner in the run game. I don't have the time (like I'm sure most of you) to watch lots of Vaitai tape and get an in depth understanding of what they probably see in the guy. The hard numbers/projections give me some level of optimism and then I do put my faith into BQ/MP that he's the right guy for what they want/need. 

The way that I compare things is if you look at the average investor vs managed portfolios. If you're Joe Blow investor, you have limited time, capital and human resources to do the right job vs large organizations with hundreds of analysts of all of the top minds in the country, with their entire day focused on one company, one sector, etc. with support staff, et al. Joe Blow might get lucky a few times but the majority do not. These guys have full on scouting departments, interns, etc. If they want to give him $10M/year... they see something in him that we don't know about. Hopefully they hit it right on the money, otherwise they'll be looking for new jobs. 

I would feel much better about your second paragraph if it didn't feel like we were a po dunk investment firm with little resources that is more Bernie Madoff than Charles Schwab.  This staff has shown time and again, they overpay and get underwhelming results.  SO I dont trust their free agent scouting.  I also dont trust the contracts they give out because again, they have a history of bad contracts.  If I was smart, I would stop investing with the Lions, but I am not, so I keep coming back to flush more of my money down the franchises toilet. 

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35 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I would feel much better about your second paragraph if it didn't feel like we were a po dunk investment firm with little resources that is more Bernie Madoff than Charles Schwab.  This staff has shown time and again, they overpay and get underwhelming results.  SO I dont trust their free agent scouting.  I also dont trust the contracts they give out because again, they have a history of bad contracts.  If I was smart, I would stop investing with the Lions, but I am not, so I keep coming back to flush more of my money down the franchises toilet. 

Yeah, I'm not sure I see a history of bad contracts given by Quinn.

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5 minutes ago, Lionized said:

Halapoulivaati Vaitai's cap hits by year (with dead cap)

2020: $5.4M ($20M dead)
2021: $10.4M ($14.6M)
2022: $8.4M ($4.2M)
2023: $10.4M ($2.8M)
2024: $10.4M ($1.4M)

20m guaranteed 

So they can get out of this easy in 2022. And going by my math, we're spending $10.4M WITH Wagner's dead cap. That's a good contract structure. 

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8 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

So they can get out of this easy in 2022. And going by my math, we're spending $10.4M WITH Wagner's dead cap. That's a good contract structure. 

Rite, and I believe Collins is structured similar. I’m trying to find the contract details still, but word is it’s the same. I think both 2020 cap hits come out to 11M. 

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1 minute ago, LionArkie said:

makes me feel a little better.

 

1 minute ago, Lionized said:

Rite, and I believe Collins is structured similar. I’m trying to find the contract details still, but word is it’s the same. I think both 2020 cap hits come out to 11M. 

We can argue the quality of Quinn's signings and the overall contract numbers but I give him credit - the way he structures things is really good in terms of managing the cap space for that season. Even when we signed Flowers to his big contract the initial cap hit wasn't detrimental for last season. 

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1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

 

We can argue the quality of Quinn's signings and the overall contract numbers but I give him credit - the way he structures things is really good in terms of managing the cap space for that season. Even when we signed Flowers to his big contract the initial cap hit wasn't detrimental for last season. 

I agree. The one thing I do like about Quinn is he handles the cap portion really well.

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