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The NOT Too Early 2018 NFL Draft Thread


turtle28

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24 minutes ago, redskins4life said:

From watching Chargers game against us last week, im expecting we lose remainder of the way! I'm a fan of drafting Sam Darnold becuz Cousins isn't staying! If not QB, draft either Minka Fitz or Derwin James! We need a FS!

A FS would be huge for this defense. But if Wilkins or Payne are there I’d be hard pressed to pass on them for a FS when I believe Nicholson is a stud who never got fully recovered from his offseason shoulder surgery. Minka has been a hard player for me too scout because I only have this years film to go off of at Saftey. Derwin is a freak athlete. Both would be huge but I believe this defense could be top ten with Wilkins or Payne in the first round. With some luck from injury of course.

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On 12/15/2017 at 7:20 PM, redskins4life said:

From watching Chargers game against us last week, im expecting we lose remainder of the way! I'm a fan of drafting Sam Darnold becuz Cousins isn't staying! If not QB, draft either Minka Fitz or Derwin James! We need a FS!

We don't need a safety.  Our safeties got beat in that game because they were having to play up to stop the run because our Dline couldn't.  

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The reason our safeties got burned by Rivers was because they tried to undercut shallow routes so they could get an int and they didn’t stay home in their deep assignments so they could defend the deep ball. It has nothin to do with ability, they just blew their assignments. Nicholson is our best coverage safety and we badly miss his instincts and range.

Derwin James! Derwin James! I’d love to have him but I think he goes top 10. I think we at least finish the last two games 1-1 if not 2-0 and we’ll be picking in the low or mid teens.

Most likely our draft pick is going to be Guice, Ridley, Cameron Sutton, James Washington, Payne, Vita, Kiser or Nnadi (DT from Florida St).

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How little draft position can mean

Let’s do a little exercise. Here are six pairs of NFL players. From each pair, pick the better of the two.

  • TE Eric Ebron or LB Ryan Shazier
  • G Chance Warmack or S Kenny Vaccaro
  • DE Tyson Alualu or DE Jason Pierre-Paul
  • CB Stephon Gilmore or LB Bruce Irvin
  • RB Todd Gurley or RB Melvin Gordon
  • QB Blaine Gabbert or C Mike Pouncey

In my opinion, it's clear that Shazier, Pouncey, and Pierre-Paul clearly are the better than the players with whom they are paired. Warmack and Vaccaro were neck-and-neck the first few years of their careers but Warmack hasn’t played much in the last two years, giving the edge to Vaccaro. Both Gilmore and Irvin have been pretty good; I’d lean towards the pass rusher but it’s basically a coin flip. Gurley’s breakout this year puts him above Gordon.

Why did I pair these particular players together? The player on the left in each pair was the 10th pick in a draft between 2010 and 2015 and the one on the right was the 15th pick in that same draft.

This exercise is for the benefit of all of you who are wringing their hands over the possibility that the Redskins will win one or two of their final games and “screw up” their draft position.

Too much can happen to figure out exactly where the Redskins might draft but eyeballing the standings right now it looks like the highest they could pick in the first round is 10th and the worst they could fall to is about 15th.

Looking at the players picked 10th and those who went 15th, it really doesn’t seem to be very important where you draft in that range. Of the six pairs, the lower pick is better in three of them and clearly inferior in just one. It's a matter of scouting and, to an extent, luck rather than a few spots of draft position.

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2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

 

 

Its comparing different teams, schemes, needs, philosophies, etc...

Kinda like how we drafted Sean when Gibbs was enamored with Winslow.

So...basically it comes down to how well we scout?

Ok.

But let's say our scouting department never misses on a pick. And is always 100% in its assessment of every player. 

So we can be 100% correct about the first 15 players. And want every one of them...

...I'd still rather have the 10th pick, than the 15th. Because 5 players I had eated higher will be gone by the time I puck 15th

 

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3 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Its comparing different teams, schemes, needs, philosophies, etc...

Kinda like how we drafted Sean when Gibbs was enamored with Winslow.

So...basically it comes down to how well we scout?

Ok.

But let's say our scouting department never misses on a pick. And is always 100% in its assessment of every player. 

So we can be 100% correct about the first 15 players. And want every one of them...

...I'd still rather have the 10th pick, than the 15th. Because 5 players I had eated higher will be gone by the time I puck 15th

 

I would rather have a higher pick as well, but I agree with what Mike23 was saying, if we win out or go 1-1 the last two games maybe that means something for the Kirk & Redskins front office relationships but that’s probably just wishful thinking on my part.

Also, if the team wins or loses it’s truly something we can’t control. When we are out of the playoffs I honeslty don’t care either way because winning can be good for the players who will be back next year and for the coaching staff but I totally get your point of view that having a higher draft pick is important too.

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I love Minkah Fitzpatrick. Reminds me of Jalen Ramsey when it comes to physicality and versatility. Not sure he is the athlete Ramsey is, but he is a jack of all trades. Still don't think we'll go after a DB in the 1st round, but what do I know.

We lose many of our games because we can't win in the trenches. Running the ball and defending the run is still king, regardless of how pass games have transformed over the years. DT/MLB is where I think we should focus early in the draft. 

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At the end of the day it doesn’t matter what Kiper, Mayock, or any site has a player rated at. The player we need is the player that does everything we want to do in our scheme. While passing on Watt was a huge mistake, OLB and NT are the most important positions to our scheme. So to say we valued OLB over DE it’s been evident. Year after year weve selected I believe 4 OLB’s in the top 2 rounds compared too 2 DL players in the top two rounds. And realistically would we have gone DL if Allen wasn’t there last year?

at the end of the day who cares what they think the value is come draft day you have to pick the player that best fits your team. And not every selection will be a hit but I don’t believe half the players that will be selected before us would even fit our scheme and generally that’s true.

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1 hour ago, A TRAIN 89 said:

I love Minkah Fitzpatrick. Reminds me of Jalen Ramsey when it comes to physicality and versatility. Not sure he is the athlete Ramsey is, but he is a jack of all trades. Still don't think we'll go after a DB in the 1st round, but what do I know.

We lose many of our games because we can't win in the trenches. Running the ball and defending the run is still king, regardless of how pass games have transformed over the years. DT/MLB is where I think we should focus early in the draft. 

I agree and Fitzpatrick is the player I’m scouting right now. This guy is intriguing but I can’t figure out where his best position is yet but I just really focused on him this week

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It's not just picking higher in the first round though. Picking higher in the second and third rounds is extremely valuable because higher rated players that are falling will still be there. If you aren't going to the playoffs, losing out is the best way to go. They've already statistically proven that winning out has almost zero effect on the following season. It's the difference between getting Landon Collins or getting Preston Smith. 

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