Broncos sign Melvin Gordon

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

My thing is that if the Broncos were looking for a really good pass catching back to compliment Lindsay there are other options out there that didnt require them to spend premium money. 

Deandre Washington for example, or Chris Thompson or Lamar Miller or Bilal Powell or Buck Allen or Corey Clement or Wendell Smallwood. ALL of those guys could have been had for essentially nothing but we chose to blow 8+ million of cap space per year on Gordon which could have been used to lock up another starting caliber player at a bigger position of need. Like Derek Wolfe...

So we could have gotten Lamar Miller and Derek Wolfe for the same price we paid Gordon to be a time share RB.

 

Well I think this where there is some confusion.  Gordon wasn’t brought in to compliment Lindsay.  He was brought in to be the lead back and Lindsay is the compliment.

It wasn’t just about the pass catching (I bring that up because people only want to point to the 3.9 yards a carry) it was about getting a more complete player.  As I mentioned in a previous post, Gordon has 3 down back traits.  He’s a very good receiver and one of the best in the NFL at getting in the end zone.  The 3.9 a carry really doesn’t add up when you look at his production in other areas.  Maybe he has terrible vision, but that doesn’t add up when he’s as good as he is in the red zone/short yardage situations.  An interesting stat to go with this is that Gordon leads the league in broken tackles since 2016, another thing that makes it curious he only averages 3.9 a carry while breaking more tackles than anyone else.  Like I said I don’t have an answer as to why, he should be more productive than 3.9 yards a carry. 

Denver obviously doesn’t view Lindsay as a “lead” back and I don’t blame them.  He’s 190 pounds and that might be generous.  Gordon has 3 down back traits and as good a nose for the end zone as anyone, Denver doesn’t have that player even combing Lindsay and Freeman.

[germ-x]

Now don’t get me wrong.  I don’t think this was some homerun signing and that Denver got a bargain deal.  I also don’t think it was an awful deal either.  Like I said when it happened, it’s a solid deal for what I think Gordon is going to bring to the team over the next couple of years.

[broncosfan_101]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

An interesting stat to go with this is that Gordon leads the league in broken tackles since 2016, another thing that makes it curious he only averages 3.9 a carry while breaking more tackles than anyone else.  Like I said I don’t have an answer as to why, he should be more productive than 3.9 yards a carry. 

Uhhhh, that’s VERY interesting actually. Either the Chargers OL was putrid, or Melvin has laughably poor vision in the backfield. Or both? Or both.

[iLikeDefense]

Chargers OL has been awful for the past 5 years. Last year they were decent then midway through the rest of the season they were putrid.

[thebestever6]

6 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

Chargers OL has been awful for the past 5 years. Last year they were decent then midway through the rest of the season they were putrid.

Remember how bad Russell Okung did for us ? Hasn't Lamp and that other olineman they drafted that year been busts? 

I was watching Melvin highlights his sideline to sideline ability is elite

[1234567]

How is his pass protection? That's one area of the game where it's kind of hard to get a gauge on RB's just looking at stats. 

[jsthomp2007]

The Nick Vannett signing along with Gordon were obvious plays to brief up the run game. With a deep OL and WR it will be interesting how this offense shapes up. I don't suspect too much pressure on Lock to give him a bit more time to develop.

[BowserBroncos]

On 21/03/2020 at 6:25 PM, thebestever6 said:

Remember how bad Russell Okung did for us ? Hasn't Lamp and that other olineman they drafted that year been busts? 

I was watching Melvin highlights his sideline to sideline ability is elite

They were starting Michael Schofield at guard last year. This says a lot about their OL.

[champ11]

The idea that Melvin Gordon is really good or really talented is just based on his draft position. He's a pretty great power back and therefore efficient in short yardage and red zone - I think that is huge for us and will be fantastic. But as an overall runner and receiver he's had one great season. The Broncos are taking a gamble that he gets back to that form, IMO.

I do think he will be productive for us as a short yardage back and receiver....I just think his talent is overrated and leaves a lot to be desired. But Gordon and Lindsay is going to be a fun duo that I'm excited for. 

[broncos67]

3 hours ago, champ11 said:

The idea that Melvin Gordon is really good or really talented is just based on his draft position. He's a pretty great power back and therefore efficient in short yardage and red zone - I think that is huge for us and will be fantastic. But as an overall runner and receiver he's had one great season. The Broncos are taking a gamble that he gets back to that form, IMO.

I do think he will be productive for us as a short yardage back and receiver....I just think his talent is overrated and leaves a lot to be desired. But Gordon and Lindsay is going to be a fun duo that I'm excited for. 

I agree, at least if we are expecting Gordon to be like Zeke. I think Denver is expecting him to be a key part of a 1-2 punch, not a 85% of the carries bellcow back. You could argue we overpaid relative to the role he is expected to have, which I wouldn't disagree with per se, but still think he's got some big time upside as part of this duo.

[BroncosFan2010]

Ya, I don't like the price (Should have been closer to 6M AV), but the fit is great. Excited to see Lock have an elite YAC drop-off option at RB. He needs to get as many easy looks as possible to help his development. Gordon will do that. 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I’m mildly optimistic about Gordon. The Chargers OL was horrid last year. They were one of only 2 teams (Tampa being the other) where every back averaged less than 1.9yards before first contact (freeman got 1.8ybc, Lindsay 2.7; 6th best in NFL) Maybe he runs with poor vision, or maybe the combination of play calling and line play set him up for failure. 
 

in his career he has done of good job of getting plus runs (over 50% of the needed yards on 1st or second down, or conversion on 3rd/4th/goal to go) consistently in the top 5 in the nfl (not so much last season)

did we overpay for his role? Yes. But he is a huge upgrade over freeman, who in turn is a huge upgrade over Booker. 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I’m mildly optimistic about Gordon. The Chargers OL was horrid last year. They were one of only 2 teams (Tampa being the other) where every back averaged less than 1.9yards before first contact (freeman got 1.8ybc, Lindsay 2.7; 6th best in NFL) Maybe he runs with poor vision, or maybe the combination of play calling and line play set him up for failure. 
 

in his career he has done of good job of getting plus runs (over 50% of the needed yards on 1st or second down, or conversion on 3rd/4th/goal to go) consistently in the top 5 in the nfl (not so much last season)

did we overpay for his role? Yes. But he is a huge upgrade over freeman, who in turn is a huge upgrade over Booker. 

The problem is this - this draft class has literally about 6-7 guys who could let Lindsay be the Batman, and they be the Robin - and potentially be better than Lindsay has been.   And when you see 6-7 guys like that, there are 3-4 guys who we're likely missing.   So the opportunity to mine a 3+ year starter-level RB at rookie wage prices from Rd3-4 is literally one of the market inefficiencies we can exploit.    And unlike other years, we don't have to spend a Rd2 pick to get a guy who normally goes in the top tier of talent - because the top-end talent is that rich.    Fundamentally, it's not just about the 8M - it's about the replaceability of the position, and in this year's draft, the lost opportunity cost.     

If this was a team that was a RB away from putting it over the top...sure, I can see it.   But we're not.   Lock's given us way more hope than we've had since pre-PFM for a young QB.   And the core is getting better.  But this wasn't a fortune-changing move, it was a win-now 2020 move.   Which is laudable in some respects - but the win-now moves the past 2 years have been the ones that have generally backfired the most, though I will grant Kareem Jackson signing at age 29 is the one shining exception, and we all hope the no-risk trade for Jurrell Casey is as well.  But those positions are almost impossible to replace with a Day 2 rookie pick - where RB this year, it's literally one of the best around (we're also spoiled by the 2017 RB draft class, but 2020 shapes up to be in that range).  

Don't get me wrong, MG3 is a good player.   And he's a big upgrade in the pass catching game.   But he's actually not nearly as good of a vision/power runner as Lindsay (though he knows how to get the tough extra yards and get skinny to find the first down marker/EZ, which Lindsay has as well).    Still, there's no doubt MG3-Lindsay is a much better 1-2 punch.  It's just that a Lindsay-Rd3 RB offers the potential to be just as effective, or 90 percent - at a much, much lower cost, and 4 years of cheap cost control - which then allows us to spend on 2nd WR, CB, DL, etc.   It's just a horrible allocation of resources for our team make-up.

 

Thinking win-now even with teams iffy on the talent to get there, we all know it's been Elway's motto.  He's never willing to concede that the chances to be a true contender are small,and plan long-term over short-term since pre-PFM.   If he keeps drafting well on Day 2 for a 3rd straight year after his disaster 2013-7 run,  it's going to be completely justifiable very soon vs. the past 2 years, when it's been completely indefensible.   It's just that it's not as likely to be the key move here....and even if we go with the win-now scenario, RB allocation over CB/WR/DL....man, pretty iffy.

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Broncofan

[Cutler06]

Well, aren't 31 other teams searching for that rb in the draft ? And even so, rb is such a boom-or-bust college to the NFL position. I can see getting MG3 as much more of a bird in the hand. Doesn't mean we won't select another rb but again we won't have to reach for a pick there. 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Cutler06 said:

Well, aren't 31 other teams searching for that rb in the draft ? And even so, rb is such a boom-or-bust college to the NFL position. I can see getting MG3 as much more of a bird in the hand. Doesn't mean we won't select another rb but again we won't have to reach for a pick there. 

Well, that same abundance of high-tier RB's is why teams usually wait until Rd2-3 to pick a RB even when they have a need.   The devaluation of RB's is insane.   We could see 1 or no RB go Rd1 this year (well, you never know what SEA will do lol).    Having 6-7 top ceiling RB's and this WR class, there's likely 2-3 RB's that fall to Rd3.  That's the sweet spot.    Teams like us that have 3 3rd's, really have a unique opportunity, as we could take RB as overall BPA - but that probability goes way down, given the way Elway usually operates once he thinks we are close to contention. 

The bird-in-hand analogy is fair - but the lost opportunity cost if DEN passes on one of those top tier guys in Rd3 is the bigger point.    And the economics really matter because of where we're not allocating it to.   Paying MG3 8M is 8M to a WR2, or a CB, or a DL.   That's the part that's a lot tougher to swallow.

Again, I have nothing against MG3 - he's a good player.   Just not elite...so giving him 20+ touches, and giving Lindsay 10-12, isn't nearly as big of an impact than say Lindsay/rookie RB & addressing a different, more difficult-to-find help position.   That's all. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Broncofan