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in This aint sports talk!

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MikeT14

MikeT14

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, theJ said:

There appear to be some in this very thread.  Well, they at least claim that.  I think you're right though - no one really truly wants that.  As cruel as this sounds, it's an outlandish price for humanity to pay to save 1% of the population.

That is cruel, you're right.

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mistakey

mistakey

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, mission27 said:

This is the MoL's position:

1. There is overwhelming evidence that the virus is seasonal like any other viral upper respiratory infection 

2. Given how other similar viruses work + other evidence, we think the impact is somewhat significant (i.e. if you could separate out other factors it would be measurable) 

3. This virus is 2-3x more contagious than the flu, so even if R0 is reduced by seasonality, that alone likely is not enough to get an R0 below 1 and prevent outbreaks

4. Unlike the flu or common cold we are mounting an aggressive public health response to the coronavirus that is likely to have an equal or bigger impact when compared to seasonality and combined these two factors are likely to slow spread significantly over the summer of 2020

5. There will still likely be outbreaks over the summer but hopefully the clusters will be much smaller

6. There is a real risk of another huge wave next winter and that makes finding a vaccine or therapeutics ASAP very important 

so by significant you mean statistically significant but less of an impact htan the overwhelming factor which is social distancing? and ultimately not worth bragging about being right because all doctors (even ones you have posted) have said that seasonality will not impact whether or not people will continue to get this disease in the summer to a significant degree (except for fauci).

if this thing still rises in singapore through this week, this is gonna be a unimodal peak imo.  just keeps going until were done or find a therapeutic.

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Shanedorf

Shanedorf

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, theJ said:

But the ramifications of a significant portion of our population not working for a year or more is far worse than 1% of the population dying.

Here's one easy way to handle this. 
I'm going to send you a random list of US citizens , populated with people you know and love. You pick out the 3 million that you think should die and put a black mark next to their names. Then you can draft the letter to their loved ones thanking them for their service to our country.
Knowing what I know about you, I'm guessing that shortly after you hand-deliver the 1st letter, you'll have an epiphany about the faceless/nameless 1% you're willing to sacrifice. I understand the overall sentiment, but when you make it real -  it looks a lot different than a small number on a page.
 

 

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, mistakey said:

so by significant you mean statistically significant but less of an impact htan the overwhelming factor which is social distancing? and ultimately not worth bragging about being right because all doctors (even ones you have posted) have said that seasonality will not impact whether or not people will continue to get this disease in the summer to a significant degree (except for fauci).

It will not impact whether or not people will continue to get the disease, it will impact how many though

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vikesfan89

vikesfan89

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Here's one easy way to handle this. 
I'm going to send you a random list of US citizens , populated with people you know and love. You pick out the 3 million that you think should die and put a black mark next to their names. Then you can draft the letter to their loved ones thanking them for their service to our country.
Knowing what I know about you, I'm guessing that shortly after you hand-deliver the 1st letter, you'll have an epiphany about the faceless/nameless 1% you're willing to sacrifice. I understand the overall sentiment, but when you make it real -  it looks a lot different than a small number on a page.
 

 

Would you be able to pick who dies from the flu? If not shouldn't we be isolating every flu season?

And yes I know this is likely worse than the flu

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TVScout

TVScout

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

You pick out the 3 million that you think should die and...............

Not quite the same thing. Nobody is advocating forcing any body to work. The only coercion during these current events is government forcing people inside or apart from each other. The point at issue here is how much that coercion should be relaxed.

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malagabears

malagabears

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, mission27 said:

4/20/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"'They'd say I hustled
Put in the work
They wouldn't shake their heads
And question how much of this I deserve"

- Taylor Swift

Today for 4/20 the MoL have taken a bunch of edibles for today's MoL

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Hong Kong: 0.3 (another all-time low for Hong Kong, TLO's post from last week also looking quite prescient)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/asia/hong-kong-protests-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

South Korea: 0.6 (South Korea gets an all-time low as well, only 83 cases over the past 5 days which is really something else)

Australia: 1.3 (great job Shady, only 13 cases today, a new low!)

Austria: 1.5

Czech Republic: 2.3

Israel: 2.5 (Israel breaks into Tier 1, they don't seem to have been hurt by Passover, have a new government, now talking about opening back up, good times in Israel) 

Switzerland: 3.3

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Italy: 3.0 (a great day for Italy as active cases fall for the first time, they've hit their apex, a new low for new cases for some time, they are close to tier 1)

Portugal: 3.2

Philippines: 4.2 (#seasonality)

Netherlands: 4.2

Germany: 4.2

Spain: 4.3 (after being stuck between 5-6 for over a week Spain finally sees a big drop with their lowest new case number in a long, long time @malagabears @vikesfan89)

Denmark: 4.6

USA: 5.1 (another day, another low, some really great prioress the last few days) 

Ireland: 5.2 (biggg drop the last few days, good for them)

Sweden: 5.5

Global: 5.5 (another drop in the global numbers, down a full point in the past week despite impact of Russia and other places slowing a bit) 

Belgium: 5.8

UK: 6.2

France: 6.2 (they are yet again close to another major drop, we'll see how it goes, they could drop a huge case number on us tomorrow)

Japan: 6.6 (while Japan has cases, they seem to have avoided become a major hot spot, masks?)

Iran: 6.6* (consistently bs numbers, tbh)

Turkey: 6.9

China: 7.3 (China stabilizing and even dropping a bit the last few days, do we trust #s?)

Canada: 9.2 (Canada continues to lag a bit, I do think the UK would be closer to these numbers if they were reporting correctly, but Canada looks about a week behind the US)

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Brazil: 11.1

India: 11.8

Mexico: 20.0

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Russia: 20.3 (some signs of things slowing, like with China do you believe the #s?)

USA State Level MoLs

image.png

State by state numbers today were quite good in most cases.  Iowa and North Dakota are developing little clusters, although small overall numbers, even as we see big improvement in South Dakota in the last few days.  California numbers didnt account for some late breaking LA cases that may push MoL up tomorrow.  NY is getting damn close to Tier 1 and Coumo is rightfully talking about opening (slowly).

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

Another drop in Spanish cases today.

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