Danger Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Fauci predicted this goes on for all of 2021. That’s absurd. I’d much rather just a total 3 week shutdown and that’s the end of it. This is ridiculous. I don't think it will be the end of it, it'd be kinda like cutting down a tree but the tree still lives growing branches from the stump. Eventually you may need to cut trim the branches growing from the stump again. It's like a cancer (metaphorically). It's never completely gone and it can always come back from the smallest bit remaining, at some point, but with treatments here and there it can severely limit it's ability to do damage. Long term shutdowns are completely impractical. 3 weeks is completely reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 We don’t need to shut down anything tbh, just mandate masks and enforce it. But we won’t do it because our leader doesn’t believe in science. Not a political statement, just fact. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I know two people who died from this. A neighbor and my cousin. They were in their mid-30s. the neighbor was overweight and had a drug problem, not aware of any underlining issues my cousin had. My cousin used to be a caretaker for my grandma, she would of passed it on to my grandma if this happened 3 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I find it weird when people cherry pick a small handful of countries in these infographics without clearly defining the criteria. If you want to look at the largest countries in the world >100 million people USA is 28,345 cases per million - Brazil is 25,981 - Russia is 11,086. Nobody else is over 10,000. India is obviously 2nd in total cases, but per population they are way lower than us On deaths per million in this group, Brazil, USA, and Mexico are all reasonably close to one another, and 3.5x the next closest in that group If you expand to countries >10 million people in order to catch more European peers, you now have 90 countries By that metric, USA is 3rd in cases per million, behind only Belgium and Czechia, which are two of the smallest of that peer group, although Peru, Spain, Chile, Brazil, and Argentina are within 10% of the USA. On deaths per million, USA is actually 8th (still 8th out of 90 isn't anything to brag about), with Peru and Belgium being the outliers, and USA falling within a major cluster between 3rd and 11th If you want to look at USA singularly vs Europe in totality, it doesn't break out numbers per million, but I know USA is ~330 million population versus Europe ~740 million population USA has 9.4 million cases, Europe has 9.9 million in total. So very similar case totals, but Europe is over twice as large as the USA On deaths USA has 236k, and Europe has 265k You can cherry pick a country like a Switzerland, or a Belgium to throw on your infographics to make it look like USA isn't actually at the top of anything. But its extremely difficult for me to look at this data and draw any conclusion other than USA being materially worse than most of its peers, and most of the counterarguments you see are not true peers to the US, and when you aggregate those smaller countries to form a comparable unit, that unit looks way different than the US citing my go-to source for data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 7 hours ago, mission27 said: I don't think it was ever realistic that we could "crush the curve" without either indefinite Wuhan style authoritarian lockdowns or a highly effective vaccine. I think it was very realistic EARLY on. The trouble is that the approach became politicized (and personally, I feel like the people who DIDN'T approach it with seriousness were the group guilty of politicizing). The initial "shutdown" was supposed to be a short-term, but highly dedicated effort, paired with gov stimulus to support the individuals and businesses who would be negatively affected by the shutdown, to crush it before it really took hold. At this point, I agree it would take nothing short of authoritarian methods, because so many people are not willing to make the effort and its become so polarized If Biden wins and tries to put standards in place, it won't do anything because Trump has already poisoned too large of a population into fighting an effort that needs to be coordinated 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 7 hours ago, MWil23 said: Fauci predicted this goes on for all of 2021. That’s absurd. I’d much rather just a total 3 week shutdown and that’s the end of it. This is ridiculous. It would not be the end of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Hope- Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) yeah the shutdown was always a short-term thing to avoid uncontrolled spread/death while buying time to institute a comprehensive response. and in terms of avoiding uncontrolled spread, it worked relatively well! the problem is the govt just sat on their hands and acted like it would stay gone when we reopened without bothering to come up with anything resembling a plan. well, i shouldn't even say they sat on their hands- instead we had "leaders" actually downplaying the damn thing and now it's a whole politicized mess. not sure how the toothpaste gets put back in the tube on this one, tbh. even once there's a vaccine there'll be people who refuse to take it because of all this. Edited November 1, 2020 by -Hope- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 hours ago, mission27 said: It would not be the end of it It would not be the end of it BECAUSE not everybody would commit to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 5 hours ago, August4th said: I know two people who died from this. A neighbor and my cousin. They were in their mid-30s. the neighbor was overweight and had a drug problem, not aware of any underlining issues my cousin had. My cousin used to be a caretaker for my grandma, she would of passed it on to my grandma if this happened 3 yrs ago. Sorry about your cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) Hope everyone has been holding up well. My place of employment has still been closed down since Mid March (actually we did open up 3 weeks in June). Crazy. Really ready for things to open back up. We really went the full nine yards last time, all employees and customers must wear a mask (before mask mandate in businesses), face shields for employees, plexiglass shields inbetween all customers, six feet, temperature checks, etc. Then California shut everything down again around July 1st. I have a feeling we’ll open soon though because cases have been real low here. My fiancee is a nurse and I know a ton health care workers throughout the state. Back in March-Early August you were looking at ICU all Covid, PCU all Covid, and Covid leaking into other units as well, some hospitals being as much as 90% covid. However, now you have only ICU being covid and maybe only 10-15% of ICU being covid. I know some states are really bad still, but California has definitely turned a corner, and I hope they reopen by the end of November. Had enough savings to last me a good while, plus the EDD, but that’s all about to be evaporated. Edited November 1, 2020 by BayRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 23 hours ago, howie102 said: You say "short" but the reality is that we really don't know. Here in England/the UK, the current scenario is outstripping some of the worst case hypothetical models that were run. Happy 2nd lockdown 😪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 10 hours ago, Tk3 said: It would not be the end of it BECAUSE not everybody would commit to it No it would not be the end of it because people need food and electricity and someone to man our nuclear weapons. The cost of literally everyone staying home for 3 weeks would be FAR greater than the cost of the pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 When people say lockdown, what do they mean at this point? Are we back to essential vs non essential? Or are we talking, stock up for 2-3 weeks and no one leaves home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 5 hours ago, BayRaider said: Hope everyone has been holding up well. My place of employment has still been closed down since Mid March (actually we did open up 3 weeks in June). Crazy. Really ready for things to open back up. We really went the full nine yards last time, all employees and customers must wear a mask (before mask mandate in businesses), face shields for employees, plexiglass shields inbetween all customers, six feet, temperature checks, etc. Then California shut everything down again around July 1st. I have a feeling we’ll open soon though because cases have been real low here. My fiancee is a nurse and I know a ton health care workers throughout the state. Back in March-Early August you were looking at ICU all Covid, PCU all Covid, and Covid leaking into other units as well, some hospitals being as much as 90% covid. However, now you have only ICU being covid and maybe only 10-15% of ICU being covid. I know some states are really bad still, but California has definitely turned a corner, and I hope they reopen by the end of November. Had enough savings to last me a good while, plus the EDD, but that’s all about to be evaporated. I’m pretty sure CA is going to leave the colored tier system in place regardless. We turned the corner only because of the restrictions in place. It’s the only way to prevent full lockdown again after the explosion that happened over the summer. Ideally every city and county have done enough to be moved into the yellow tier. That’s my hope anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, mission27 said: No it would not be the end of it because people need food and electricity and someone to man our nuclear weapons. The cost of literally everyone staying home for 3 weeks would be FAR greater than the cost of the pandemic. You know this isn't what people are talking about. Don't play dumb 8 minutes ago, acowboys62 said: When people say lockdown, what do they mean at this point? Are we back to essential vs non essential? Or are we talking, stock up for 2-3 weeks and no one leaves home? It means the former It means closing nonessentials, leaving only the essentials open, with a universal effort of everyone actually following all the guidelines and putting in the dedicated combined efforts to minimize contact. It means not having get togethers with people outside your household in that time. It means minimizing times going to get groceries and wearing a mask when you do. It means putting off shopping for nonessentials until things calm down. It should be paired with an unemployment stimulus for those who become unable to work for those weeks, plus a stimulus to help small businesses that are forced to temporarily close. It could be done if everyone bought in - and it could be done with minimal economic loss and what would be considered a personal "annoyance" or self sacrifice But those methods won't do any good if only 60% of the people follow through on it. That is why we are in the mess that we are. Half the population making efforts and half not for 9 months leaves the entire population in a state of emergency. 100% of the population making efforts for a much much shorter period of time is how countries with extremely flat and low curves got to where they are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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