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Coronavirus (COVID-19) - 3rd try

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2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

From what I've seen, this is all going to hit the hardest in April/early May, and there will likely be a rebound factor in August/September, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this continue through the fall. I don't even want to bring this up to my coworkers, or fellow coaches either. The social/emotional support for our staff, students, and athletes/extracurricular students will be at an all time high.

I’m just not sure what the answer is until enough people have antibodies or there’s a vaccine.  It will just continue to spike.

Hopefully we get there sooner than later, but it’s just so hard to predict.

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23 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’m just not sure what the answer is until enough people have antibodies or there’s a vaccine.  It will just continue to spike.

Hopefully we get there sooner than later, but it’s just so hard to predict.

You get the case numbers way down and monitor for outbreaks and people go back to their lives.

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Numbers everywhere look pretty universally good the last few days.  I really hope this is a sign that social distancing is working and some of the out of control growth the last couple of weeks was testing catching up with the scope of the disease. 

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3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

You get the case numbers way down and monitor for outbreaks and people go back to their lives.

Right, but my point is without immunity and people going back to “business as usual” you’re just going to get more spikes.

 

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1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Right, but my point is without immunity and people going back to “business as usual” you’re just going to get more spikes.

 

Yeah but we're 2 weeks into social distancing now and it's only in the last few days we've started to see the acceleration stagnate. Have we won the war? Nope. But considering we're all stuck in some house arrest/groundhog day cross-over, can we just count it as a win?

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

This is our first official day of online learning for the students that I teach (grades 10-12).  I'm unsure of how our students are going to respond to this as far as doing the work vs. blowing it off, etc. Hopefully we all make the most of it. I'm utilizing Google Classroom, forms, docs, slides, etc. We are not allowed to use live platforms like Google Hangouts, live videos, etc., and we do have a contingent of students with extenuating circumstances like lack of internet, access to technology, or excuses about it as well, so I'm not sure what our administrative team is going to do in these regards.

Spectrum is offering free internet for students. Here’s a link. 

Not sure what options there are if they don’t have a computer. 

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5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Right, but my point is without immunity and people going back to “business as usual” you’re just going to get more spikes.

 

I dont know how you avoid that except by doing what South Korea has done and what China is trying to do now that they have cases under control. 

IF you get case numbers low enough (back to where we were here a couple months ago), there's a model for how to slow the spread and prevent a full fledged outbreak.  That doesn't mean it will 100% work everywhere but its the best we can do.

The alternative is you tell people to stay inside until an unknown date when a TBD vaccine is available and has been administered to literally billions of people and I just don't think that's an acceptable answer for the world.

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So slow it down, let it build back up a little as people go back to work. Then repeat until there is a vaccine?

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9 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I dont know how you avoid that except by doing what South Korea has done and what China is trying to do now that they have cases under control. 

IF you get case numbers low enough (back to where we were here a couple months ago), there's a model for how to slow the spread and prevent a full fledged outbreak.  That doesn't mean it will 100% work everywhere but its the best we can do.

The alternative is you tell people to stay inside until an unknown date when a TBD vaccine is available and has been administered to literally billions of people and I just don't think that's an acceptable answer for the world.

I’m not pretending to have the answer, I’m just saying I don’t know if this is a 2-3 month deal and then back to normalcy.

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9 minutes ago, Mega Ron said:

So slow it down, let it build back up a little as people go back to work. Then repeat until there is a vaccine?

That's better than shutting everything down until there is a vaccine

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15 minutes ago, Mega Ron said:

So slow it down, let it build back up a little as people go back to work. Then repeat until there is a vaccine?

That is the idea. The point of the lockdown was never to "beat" the virus, it was just to lengthen the timeline to give us time to prepare, and to prevent a single massive spike. We just need to keep the number of cases less than our healthcare capacity levels. 

Until there is a vaccine, shtudowns and social distancing does not reduce the number of expected cases, it just spreads them out. 

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2 minutes ago, Heimdallr said:

That is the idea. The point of the lockdown was never to "beat" the virus, it was just to lengthen the timeline to give us time to prepare, and to prevent a single massive spike. We just need to keep the number of cases less than our healthcare capacity levels. 

Until there is a vaccine, shtudowns and social distancing does not reduce the number of expected cases, it just spreads them out. 

Good post. In theory, this helps reduce the number of deaths that occur as well. It will be the biggest difference we see between us and Italy. 

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1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’m not pretending to have the answer, I’m just saying I don’t know if this is a 2-3 month deal and then back to normalcy.

Normalcy no, but lifting the shelter in place, opening borders, etc. has to happen 

There's a limit to what people will accept and at a certain point we need to take the risk of a proactive public health strategy rather than asking everyone to put their lives on hold until an unknown date in the future 

Personally I'm pretty confident the social distancing will get things under control based on what we're seeing and I think its highly likely the public health measures post-lockdown will have some positive effect, also think there will 100% be future serious outbreaks and many deaths before this is over, but thats unavoidable 

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1 hour ago, Heimdallr said:

Until there is a vaccine, shtudowns and social distancing does not reduce the number of expected cases, it just spreads them out. 

It depends

If you can get the number of cases down to 50 or 100 new cases every day like China or South Korea and keep it there then the % of your population that is infected will actually go down every day (because births and deaths are way more than 50 to 100 in every one of these countries) and even though eradication is unlikely, it would eventually become super rare

Clearly harsh social distancing measures will accomplish that, we've seen that in China, and Europe is slowing down dramatically the last few days.  So if we were fully committed to shelter in place until there were a vaccine, even with the inevitable cracks in the system, I think you'd dramatically reduce the number of people who got sick or died. 

But full social distancing for 18 months or however long isn't really a good option

So the question is can we lift the lockdowns and still stay at the 50 or 100 new cases a day or even 500, like a South Korea, or are we inevitably going to see waves of massive outbreaks every time we lift lockdowns? 

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