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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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4 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Right, but my point is without immunity and people going back to “business as usual” you’re just going to get more spikes.

 

Do you think that if the new case numbers can be brought back down far enough, that with the improved testing that is becoming available, case identification followed by contact identification and isolation can control the disease without total shut down?

That is my hope at least.

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I was looking at the Dane County, Wisconsin numbers (Madison metropolitan area, roughly 450,00 population) this morning, and I have felt that we got on this early and have a good chance to get control before disaster.  The curve looks encouraging:  https://cityofmadison.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c3ad3b83e1fe4893837364cbe10ce789

It is certainly too early to tell, but the curve for the number of cases appears to be nearing a top.  Won't know for a while, but at least for today, I am encouraged.  The officials doing the contact tracing for case have said that they now see few high risk contacts for new cases, whereas at the beginning they were seeing large clusters/networks.

We got on it early though, with the University of Wisconsin sending the students home 2.5 weeks ago and the city & county encouraging social distancing for probably 3 weeks- long before the Wisconsin stay at home order.

Like I said, too early to confirm the trend, but I am hopeful that we are getting control before disaster strikes, and that it can be done in much of the country as well.  I would think areas would still have "brush fires" that public health would have to identify and get on them, and people identified would have to cooperate, but with appropriate resources they should be able to be controlled without the mass shutdown.

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38 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Do you think that if the new case numbers can be brought back down far enough, that with the improved testing that is becoming available, case identification followed by contact identification and isolation can control the disease without total shut down?

That is my hope at least.

____________________________________

I was looking at the Dane County, Wisconsin numbers (Madison metropolitan area, roughly 450,00 population) this morning, and I have felt that we got on this early and have a good chance to get control before disaster.  The curve looks encouraging:  https://cityofmadison.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c3ad3b83e1fe4893837364cbe10ce789

It is certainly too early to tell, but the curve for the number of cases appears to be nearing a top.  Won't know for a while, but at least for today, I am encouraged.  The officials doing the contact tracing for case have said that they now see few high risk contacts for new cases, whereas at the beginning they were seeing large clusters/networks.

We got on it early though, with the University of Wisconsin sending the students home 2.5 weeks ago and the city & county encouraging social distancing for probably 3 weeks- long before the Wisconsin stay at home order.

Like I said, too early to confirm the trend, but I am hopeful that we are getting control before disaster strikes, and that it can be done in much of the country as well.  I would think areas would still have "brush fires" that public health would have to identify and get on them, and people identified would have to cooperate, but with appropriate resources they should be able to be controlled without the mass shutdown.

Some areas will do better than others for sure, but even then it doesn’t take a lot of people acting like idiots to make this worse than it has to be.

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I like the extra "you can GTFO" ability this gives me. 

I had a nasty old entitled hag tell me that we were going to provide breakfast for her since it's an IHG standard and she didn't care if we can't have people gathering in the breakfast area, she was going to get her breakfast.  I told her she can find a different hotel.  The look she gave me I will cherish for the rest of my life. 

She'll probably call corporate and I don't care. 

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1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

Genuinely curious, if this virus was like the one in Contagion (killed 26 million people in 1 month, 30% fatality rate, and was extremely contagious) would people be as antsy to resume life as they currently are?


I think people would still be partying.

A virus with a CFR of 30% is unlikely to spread as widely and quickly as this one did... its just too obvious when outbreaks are happening because people are dropping like flies immediately and there aren't nearly as many asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people to unknowingly spread it

So imo if this was that severe it would've burned out quickly like SARS and MERS and Ebola outside of Africa

Part of the reason I think the CFR is very low

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For those who doubt that this virus is seasonal

Look at some of the large countries in tropical and southern hemisphere

Places like Australia and Malaysia and Brazil

Yes there was a spike in cases when this went nuclear in Europe / NA and people start fleeing home and everyone started to test, but since then its been pretty much linear growth... no exponential explosion... suggests there is much more limited community spread in these places and the majority of these cases are likely people who traveled or people with direct contact with people who traveled

Its a much different pattern than we saw in Wuhan, Europe, and the US

 

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34 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Do you think that if the new case numbers can be brought back down far enough, that with the improved testing that is becoming available, case identification followed by contact identification and isolation can control the disease without total shut down?

The initial models considered 4 options: drugs, vaccines, mitigation and suppression. Suppression was the only one that offered enough benefit to sufficiently flatten the curve nationally. Suppression + mitigation was the plan going forward, but mitigation alone would not be sufficient per the estimates from the Imperial College COVID-19 study.

The challenge is that even if WI or Madison was doing well enough to rely on mitigation alone, the only way to make it work would be to close borders and create a separate "island" unto themselves with nobody coming in or out. Unfortunately, that's a non-starter in terms of public policy. The US also does not have the contact tracing (Big Brother surveillance) to pull it off like they do in more authoritarian regimes.

I'm all in favor of keeping the FIBs out, but there will be leaks no matter how hard we try.
The scenario you outlined above is exactly why we shouldn't allow interbreeding among Packer fans and Cubs fans. See below:

 

GettyImages-85906795.jpg

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1 minute ago, mission27 said:

For those who doubt that this virus is seasonal

Look at some of the large countries in tropical and southern hemisphere

Places like Australia and Malaysia and Brazil

Yes there was a spike in cases when this went nuclear in Europe / NA and people start fleeing home and everyone started to test, but since then its been pretty much linear growth... no exponential explosion... suggests there is much more limited community spread in these places and the majority of these cases are likely people who traveled or people with direct contact with people who traveled

Its a much different pattern than we saw in Wuhan, Europe, and the US

 

Australia for instance

141 new cases reported on March 18th, similar to Belgium who reported 185 cases on March 17th 

Belgium has reported 1K+ cases each of the last 5 days... including today

Australia has reported 200-500 a day... and reported 82 today... and is on a clear downtrend the last 5 days with yesterday being an outlier

This despite Australia being a much larger country and Belgium having instituted significantly more restrictions 

Weather is clearly playing a factor here and has to be part of the strategy 

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Just now, mission27 said:

Australia for instance

141 new cases reported on March 18th, similar to Belgium who reported 185 cases on March 17th 

Belgium has reported 1K+ cases each of the last 5 days... including today

Australia has reported 200-500 a day... and reported 82 today... and is on a clear downtrend the last 5 days with yesterday being an outlier

This despite Australia being a much larger country and Belgium having instituted significantly more restrictions 

Weather is clearly playing a factor here and has to be part of the strategy 

@Shady Slim can confirm

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5 minutes ago, mission27 said:

This despite Australia being a much larger country and Belgium having instituted significantly more restrictions

It is most likely directly related to their population density.  The closer the people the greater the spread and infection rate.  It is the driving factor in the massive numbers seen in NYC 

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5 minutes ago, mission27 said:

suggests there is much more limited community spread in these places

Or it could be a function of the limited healthcare and testing currently available in many of those countries as noted by WHO.
You're ability to leap to conclusions is combine - worthy; on that front your RAS score is an eleventy.

And I don't mean to be rude....
but somebody should remind you that the Southern Hemisphere is now in their Fall season and headed for Winter with lower temps.

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