Pickle Rick Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, mission27 said: There are large urban areas in the tropics and southern hemisphere though many of them with a lot of travel links to China and Europe... it just doesnt make sense that every major metro along a certain temperature band is a hotspot and none of those outside of it are and then to say this doesn't appear to be seasonally effected Many factors. 1. Time of the year. Since they are coming out of their summer months, the air is more dense and a cough that would travel and infect everything within 6 ft actually can only infect say half that distance. So less contamination will lead to a lower infection rate. 2. Reliance on public transit. Europe, China and the US have cities almost entirely dependent on public transit. This greatly increases the spread and infection rates. The closer you are and the longer you spend around people the rates of infection increase greatly 3. Testing probably plays some part in it as well. Probably others factors as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, vikesfan89 said: That's better than shutting everything down until there is a vaccine Not for the people who die it’s not Edited March 30, 2020 by Dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, mistakey said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/ could go either way. mar 29 update doesnt look so good. lets see what happens today. I'm pretty sure they update once a day at 3pm in some time zone in Australia, the 3/30 update was 82 new cases (it jumped from 4,163 to 4,245) https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers obviously the 3/30 number and 3/29 numbers being so extreme are noise but if you average them out, you're looking at about 250-300 cases a day which is consistent with where they were from 3/25 to 3/28 Havent been watching Australia particularly closely the way I have Italy Spain etc. so I could be wrong about the cadence BUT its already 7am in so we're really only a few hours away from getting their 3/31 update... so I think I'm looking at this correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dome said: I had a woman on a bicycle throw out her hand for a left hand turn AS she made the turn. I had already begun passing her on the left as she left the bike lane (far right) and attempted to cross my lane into the center turn lane. She collided with my passenger side fender, didn’t fall off the bike or anything. We bumped and both pulled over. She started yelling about how she was going to call the cops, I told her I stick around for them to show up. Then she told me her husband was a lawyer. I realized after a minute or two of this lady rambling about how I need to pay more attention to bikers it was clear she wasn’t going to call the police. I gave her my info and left, never heard anything about it. but yeah, her riding directly into the side of my car was my fault. In my area (very few bike lanes) they just ride on the sidewalks. That's a different danger, because it's easy to hit them as you pull out of a parking lot without ever seeing them. Many years ago i was pulling out of a parking lot, looking to my left because i was about to turn right. As i was inching out, i barely missed a biker at top speed coming from my right down the sidewalk. Just not safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 hours ago, kingseanjohn said: I think the issue is how long it's taking for people to see the effects the virus will have. Right now, we're staying home and it appears to be for no purpose unless you understand the situation. Once people see the lines for medical care, body bags, and everything else locally, they'll get less antsy imo. There was a video out of New York showing bodies being loaded into a freezer truck using a fork lift. I don’t know what else needs to happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: Many factors. 1. Time of the year. Since they are coming out of their summer months, the air is more dense and a cough that would travel and infect everything within 6 ft actually can only infect say half that distance. So less contamination will lead to a lower infection rate. 2. Reliance on public transit. Europe, China and the US have cities almost entirely dependent on public transit. This greatly increases the spread and infection rates. The closer you are and the longer you spend around people the rates of infection increase greatly 3. Testing probably plays some part in it as well. Probably others factors as well. I agree. I think seasonality is a factor here, but clearly not the only factor or a panacea But I've yet to see anything really contradict the theory that this is likely to be seasonally impacted like other coronaviruses, the flu, and other viruses that cause respiratory illness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Dome said: Not for the people who die it’s not Like has been mentioned, this shelter in place thing wasn't done to prevent people from getting this and dying. It was to flatten the curve. At some point, when the health care system can handle it, we have to get back to our lives. Because under that assumption, the people that are going to die, are going to die anyway. We may as well be working while that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Just now, theJ said: Like has been mentioned, this shelter in place thing wasn't done to prevent people from getting this and dying. It was to flatten the curve. And what’s the purpose of flattening the curve? Ultimately, to save lives by reducing the amount of people who get this all at once. seems like this is semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Just now, Dome said: And what’s the purpose of flattening the curve? Ultimately, to save lives by reducing the amount of people who get this all at once. seems like this is semantics. Yes and yes. I'm too lazy to go back and read the whole post you clipped, so maybe i'm thinking of the wrong one. Thought you were saying something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 https://www.fox13news.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-tampa-megachurch-pastor-who-led-packed-services-despite-safer-at-home-orders 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, pwny said: https://www.fox13news.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-tampa-megachurch-pastor-who-led-packed-services-despite-safer-at-home-orders Good, there needs to be very strong consequences for such stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, mission27 said: I'm pretty sure they update once a day at 3pm in some time zone in Australia, the 3/30 update was 82 new cases (it jumped from 4,163 to 4,245) https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers obviously the 3/30 number and 3/29 numbers being so extreme are noise but if you average them out, you're looking at about 250-300 cases a day which is consistent with where they were from 3/25 to 3/28 Havent been watching Australia particularly closely the way I have Italy Spain etc. so I could be wrong about the cadence BUT its already 7am in so we're really only a few hours away from getting their 3/31 update... so I think I'm looking at this correctly When the primary source of new infections is community spread, you expect to see exponential growth for a period of time, then a slow down, then a plateau and then cases coming down... as public health measures + localized herd immunity slow the virus down... this is what we've seen in Wuhan Europe and North America, albeit we've yet to peak in most of those places When the primary source of new infections is travel related, and there's been a border closure shortly after this hit pandemic levels, you'd expect to see a period of a couple of weeks where the numbers spike to a pretty constant rate of X new cases a day (where X is basically a fraction of the travelers who came back 5-10 days earlier and their close contacts) and then eventually very few new cases... this is what it looks like we are seeing in Australia, to me Its early but I think the numbers in Australia add some credence to the seasonality theory Edited March 30, 2020 by mission27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, mission27 said: For those who doubt that this virus is seasonal Look at some of the large countries in tropical and southern hemisphere Places like Australia and Malaysia and Brazil Yes there was a spike in cases when this went nuclear in Europe / NA and people start fleeing home and everyone started to test, but since then its been pretty much linear growth... no exponential explosion... suggests there is much more limited community spread in these places and the majority of these cases are likely people who traveled or people with direct contact with people who traveled Its a much different pattern than we saw in Wuhan, Europe, and the US What would that be, the weather and the way the virus would be transmitted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, ET80 said: Good, there needs to be very strong consequences for such stupidity. Wait, don't be so hasty. This guy has some serious tech at his disposal. Just look. Quote "We brought in 13 machines that basically kill every virus in the place," Howard-Browne said. "If they sneeze it shoots it down like at 100 miles per hour and it will neutralize it in a split second." We should be appointing this guy to some senior position within the government to prevent the further spread of the virus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: Some areas will do better than others for sure, but even then it doesn’t take a lot of people acting like idiots to make this worse than it has to be. That is what worries me about my area (NJ, close to the beach but not "Jersey Shore" status). I hate I am in lock down (would be a lot worse if my wife was not a nurse so at least I get why), I hate that a lot of beaches are closed and will remain closed, but what I hate the most...is the thought of lifting restrictions as we get into May and a massive influx of people from NYC to their second homes and boom this thing spreads like wild fire again. I know the Tri-state Governors are doing a lot of stuff in lock step, but going to be hard to contain people once the weather really gets nice. I really think you will see it take a long while before NY, NJ area start to show real progress just because of the nature of how we all act (like no laws apply to us). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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