Nazgul Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, mission27 said: Likewise my man Oh, I'm not smart. I really am dumb as rocks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: Another factor is simply population density. Australia 3.1 per sq km. Belgium 383 per sq km. That's the most misleading statistic I've seen today. I don't see how Australia's vast desert figures in the equation here. Hardly anyone lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, theJ said: That's the most misleading statistic I've seen today. I don't see how Australia's vast desert figures in the equation here. Hardly anyone lives there. To be fair to @diehardlionfan .... I would imagine there is less travel between major metro areas in Australia compared to Europe or the Northeast US because they are further apart, which could prevent an outbreak in Sydney from getting to Brisbane as quickly It takes like 4 hours by train to go from Amsterdam through Brussels to Paris.... 3 countries 3 major metros... thats harder in Australia But yeah, like I said, I think 90% its the density in the major metro areas because all these metro areas have cases from international travel, and I bet thats pretty similar, which is why I wouldnt throw out the Australia numbers as a sign of seasonality just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 So maybe Australia updates more often This is the latest... 266 cases in the last 24 hours. Pretty flat. As at 6:30am on 31 March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 266 new cases since 6:30am yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 worldometers.info uses GMT+0 so its a little off from Australia's time zones but we're probably going to be in the low 200s there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, Dome said: Not for the people who die it’s not As much as it sucks, people are going to die. 18 months of the country shut down will kill people too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, theJ said: That's the most misleading statistic I've seen today. I don't see how Australia's vast desert figures in the equation here. Hardly anyone lives there. It’s only misleading if you interpret it wrong. It’s simply a statistic. Not only is Brussels, situated on direct high speed rail links travel in the Euro zone is far more congested than Australia. A bit more research shows Sydney’s population density at 407 per sq km while a Brussels is 5384 per sq km. Molenbeek is the more impoverished area of Brussels and it’s 16357 per sq km. Edited March 30, 2020 by diehardlionfan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Just now, vikesfan89 said: As much as it sucks, people are going to die. 18 months of the country shut down will kill people too Right. I’m pointing out the mindset “it sucks, but it’s better than shutting down completely” won’t resonate with the folks who die because of it. They’d probably much prefer the country stay shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 hours ago, mission27 said: Australia for instance 141 new cases reported on March 18th, similar to Belgium who reported 185 cases on March 17th Belgium has reported 1K+ cases each of the last 5 days... including today Australia has reported 200-500 a day... and reported 82 today... and is on a clear downtrend the last 5 days with yesterday being an outlier This despite Australia being a much larger country and Belgium having instituted significantly more restrictions Weather is clearly playing a factor here and has to be part of the strategy "New cases" is an incredibly misleading statistic. How often are both countries testing? For instance, the United States has FAR more cases than we are reporting...We just aren't testing people who aren't showing life threatening symptoms basically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dome said: Right. I’m pointing out the mindset “it sucks, but it’s better than shutting down completely” won’t resonate with the folks who die because of it. They’d probably much prefer the country stay shut down. Eh, not necessarily. My currently out of work father who would be a high risk due to underlying conditions, while obviously does not want to get sick, certainly does not want to die and is not nearly at that stage of his life acknowledges that the thought of another really bad recession/depression scares him more than the virus does. My father in law, considered essential, had to actually self quarantine for 2 weeks because a co-work tested positive was given the option to get some sick pay (his brother in law owns the company) and he turned it down and went to work because the sick pay was not the same amount of money and hes getting very close to retirement so with the markets being what they are is scared of not having consistent money come in over the next few weeks / months. It's a really really f'd up situation for anyone in that older/high risk bracket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Dome said: Right. I’m pointing out the mindset “it sucks, but it’s better than shutting down completely” won’t resonate with the folks who die because of it. They’d probably much prefer the country stay shut down. Sure Its more of a useful conversation ahead of time though right I'm young and reasonably healthy, my chance of dying from this is low, and I don't really have any close family or friends in the 80+ crowd anymore... so if I'm being totally selfish its a no brainer to open the country up ASAP, I'd absolutely be willing to take a small risk that I or someone close to me might get seriously ill in order to live an extra 1.5 years of my life... after all we will all die some day and that's 1.5 years If you're 80 or your parents are 80 maybe you feel differently. Although at the same time if you're 80 do you really want to spend 18 months of your limited time left on earth in isolation not able to see family and grandchildren and whatever? Do you want to not be able to go to other doctors appointments and get treatments that while not as immediately crucial could catch things that are life threatening or lifestyle changing down the road? Maybe some of those people would rather take the risk too (obviously once we get over the current surge... I don't think anyone is advocating opening things up TODAY and if I was 80 years old right now I'd be pretty terrified to go outside in a lot of places) My guess is the vast majority of people would rather the country and the WORLD open up once cases are back to a reasonable level, given the balance of personal health risk and quality of life over the next 18 months, or whatever, especially when you consider there's absolutely no guarantee we are able to develop a safe and effective vaccine and get everyone vaccinated in the next 18 months. I'm sure there are some people who would rather not take that risk and I hope between public policy and private businesses we can do as much as possible to accommodate those people once things start to get relaxed ... because if you're 85 and you want to stay home longer or until there's a vaccine that's understandable and I'd hope we as a society could help make that possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Dome said: Right. I’m pointing out the mindset “it sucks, but it’s better than shutting down completely” won’t resonate with the folks who die because of it. They’d probably much prefer the country stay shut down. There is no ideal situation obviously but it's hard to apologize to dead people. Their family members on the other hand... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, mission27 said: And then boom another outbreak lol I hate to say it but I think you can chalk NYC/NJ up to another out break this summer or fall just because of the beach town access (assuming it were to open back up). Already packed places go full overboard when the weather gets nice. A local town, Sea Bright, is maybe 1.3 square miles (of which half is roads and or water/beach/bayside) has less than 1,400 full time residents in the off season...come summer, you will be looking at 15,000+ during the peak either living or just being in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said: "New cases" is an incredibly misleading statistic. How often are both countries testing? For instance, the United States has FAR more cases than we are reporting...We just aren't testing people who aren't showing life threatening symptoms basically. Tbf I think that's the case almost everywhere with a few limited exceptions like South Korea or New Rochelle. Not defending political leaders in the US or Australia or anywhere else, but right now the priority almost everywhere is dealing with the surge at the hospitals But yeah... the data only captures a small piece of the puzzle... but the trends are still meaningful and Australia has not shown the same kind of ramp we've seen in the northern hemisphere, the number of serious cases should ramp up the same was as a % of total cases so even if you aren't testing mild or asymptomatic you'd still expect to see a steep ramp if there was rampant community spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: Tbf I think that's the case almost everywhere with a few limited exceptions like South Korea or New Rochelle. Not defending political leaders in the US or Australia or anywhere else, but right now the priority almost everywhere is dealing with the surge at the hospitals But yeah... the data only captures a small piece of the puzzle... but the trends are still meaningful and Australia has not shown the same kind of ramp we've seen in the northern hemisphere, the number of serious cases should ramp up the same was as a % of total cases so even if you aren't testing mild or asymptomatic you'd still expect to see a steep ramp if there was rampant community spread I know most countries aren't doing a lot of testing. Thats my point. You can't accurately say what countries are "flattening the curve" because a lot of them really aren't testing. They're only testing people who become gravely ill, similar to what we're doing. I'd be interested to see the population of elderly in both countries. I think saying the weather will help is incredibly irresponsible. California has had over 5000 cases, Florida has over 4000 cases and New Hampshire has only 258. As I'm sure you know, New Hampshire is far colder right now than Florida and California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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