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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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8 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said:

I know most countries aren't doing a lot of testing. Thats my point. You can't accurately say what countries are "flattening the curve" because a lot of them really aren't testing. They're only testing people who become gravely ill, similar to what we're doing.

The data isn't perfect but it gives us some information 

For example, # of daily cases in Italy is dropping even though Italy like every country is ramping up the availability of tests... to me that's a clear sign that less people are showing up in hospitals with COVID-19... if not, we'd still be seeing growth, even if we weren't capturing everyone 

Again the # of serious cases is proportional to the number of total cases, we don't know the exact relationship, but it will still show the trends 

8 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said:

I'd be interested to see the population of elderly in both countries. I think saying the weather will help is incredibly irresponsible. California has had over 5000 cases, Florida has over 4000 cases and New Hampshire has only 258. As I'm sure you know, New Hampshire is far colder right now than Florida and California.

There are 30x as many people in California as there are in New Hampshire 

So per capita there are actually more reported cases in New Hampsire based on your stats

Which is very surprising when you consider California has two of the biggest metro areas in the country and extensive travel links with China, Iran, and Europe whereas New Hampshire only has a few malls and extensive travel links with northern Mass

But even beyond that... 

Northern California is not particularly warm this time of year and its only now starting to get a little warmer in LA (been in the 60s for a lot of the past 2 months) and really wont be hot in LA until like July, plus LA is extremely dry (humidity plays a big roll in seasonality of viruses)

Florida would be a much better counterpoint for sure, but Florida's outbreak was super charged by spring break travel for those 2-3 weeks and a governor who refuses to shut things down, its kind of misleading 

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4 minutes ago, mission27 said:

The data isn't perfect but it gives us some information 

For example, # of daily cases in Italy is dropping even though Italy like every country is ramping up the availability of tests... to me that's a clear sign that less people are showing up in hospitals with COVID-19... if not, we'd still be seeing growth, even if we weren't capturing everyone 

Again the # of serious cases is proportional to the number of total cases, we don't know the exact relationship, but it will still show the trends 

There are 30x as many people in California as there are in New Hampshire 

So per capita there are actually more reported cases in New Hampsire based on your stats

Which is very surprising when you consider California has two of the biggest metro areas in the country and extensive travel links with China, Iran, and Europe whereas New Hampshire only has a few malls and extensive travel links with northern Mass

But even beyond that... 

Northern California is not particularly warm this time of year and its only now starting to get a little warmer in LA (been in the 60s for a lot of the past 2 months) and really wont be hot in LA until like July, plus LA is extremely dry (humidity plays a big roll in seasonality of viruses)

Florida would be a much better counterpoint for sure, but Florida's outbreak was super charged by spring break travel for those 2-3 weeks and a governor who refuses to shut things down, its kind of misleading 

Its misleading. Just like information from countries who aren't testing that many people. You cant use that as a baseline for whether or not weather will effect this. Especially when numerous people doing research on COVID-19 have said they don't believe weather plays a big role.

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1 minute ago, MookieMonstah said:

Its misleading. Just like information from countries who aren't testing that many people. You cant use that as a baseline for whether or not weather will effect this. Especially when numerous people doing research on COVID-19 have said they don't believe weather plays a big role.

I haven't seen any serious research that contradicts the idea that COVID-19 is likely to be seasonal, like basically every other respiratory viral infection known to man 

I've seen many public health officials and researchers rightfully caution that we dont know to what extent it is seasonal and that seasonality wont make this 'go away' given how high the R0 is to begin with

Theres a huge difference

All of the hot spots are in temperate winter climates... there are plenty of tropical and southern hemisphere metro areas with extensive travel with China and no outbreaks in those metros anywhere near the scale we are seeing in Europe and North America... call the data misleading and incomplete all you want, but if there was a NYC or Paris or Madrid level outbreak in Mumbai or Bangkok or Cairo right now, we would know

It doesnt mean the summer will stop this in its tracks but there's a lot of evidence of seasonality 

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20 minutes ago, mission27 said:

The data isn't perfect but it gives us some information 

For example, # of daily cases in Italy is dropping even though Italy like every country is ramping up the availability of tests... to me that's a clear sign that less people are showing up in hospitals with COVID-19... if not, we'd still be seeing growth, even if we weren't capturing everyone 

Again the # of serious cases is proportional to the number of total cases, we don't know the exact relationship, but it will still show the trends 

There are 30x as many people in California as there are in New Hampshire 

So per capita there are actually more reported cases in New Hampsire based on your stats

Which is very surprising when you consider California has two of the biggest metro areas in the country and extensive travel links with China, Iran, and Europe whereas New Hampshire only has a few malls and extensive travel links with northern Mass

But even beyond that... 

Northern California is not particularly warm this time of year and its only now starting to get a little warmer in LA (been in the 60s for a lot of the past 2 months) and really wont be hot in LA until like July, plus LA is extremely dry (humidity plays a big roll in seasonality of viruses)

Florida would be a much better counterpoint for sure, but Florida's outbreak was super charged by spring break travel for those 2-3 weeks and a governor who refuses to shut things down, its kind of misleading 

Testing has been a huge issue in California. I have sick friends in the state that tested negative for flu but can’t get tested for the virus. 

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5 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I haven't seen any serious research that contradicts the idea that COVID-19 is likely to be seasonal, like basically every other respiratory viral infection known to man 

I've seen many public health officials and researchers rightfully caution that we dont know to what extent it is seasonal and that seasonality wont make this 'go away' given how high the R0 is to begin with

Theres a huge difference

All of the hot spots are in temperate winter climates... there are plenty of tropical and southern hemisphere metro areas with extensive travel with China and no outbreaks in those metros anywhere near the scale we are seeing in Europe and North America... call the data misleading and incomplete all you want, but if there was a NYC or Paris or Madrid level outbreak in Mumbai or Bangkok or Cairo right now, we would know

It doesnt mean the summer will stop this in its tracks but there's a lot of evidence of seasonality 

Just applying common sense to something like this (I am in no way medically inclined / trained / educated) but if this thing mainly travels via droplets in the air and you get an influx of humidity which is essentially "wet air" wouldn't that reduce the ability of the droplets to be at their purest form (which I have no idea if that impacts anything or not).  It would seem for sure that humidity could slow it as opposed to people just assuming heat would (I know a lot of places these things tend to go hand in hand). 

I have always wondered why hospitals are not kept more humid or even have more humid wings.  I get that with humidity comes issues or rot / rust if not properly ventilated but things like the flu have been proven to be weakened with humidity. 

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1 hour ago, acowboys62 said:

Just applying common sense to something like this (I am in no way medically inclined / trained / educated) but if this thing mainly travels via droplets in the air and you get an influx of humidity which is essentially "wet air" wouldn't that reduce the ability of the droplets to be at their purest form (which I have no idea if that impacts anything or not).  It would seem for sure that humidity could slow it as opposed to people just assuming heat would (I know a lot of places these things tend to go hand in hand). 

I have always wondered why hospitals are not kept more humid or even have more humid wings.  I get that with humidity comes issues or rot / rust if not properly ventilated but things like the flu have been proven to be weakened with humidity. 

higher humidity has a trade off.   bacterial, fungal, other health related complications

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Death Rate still going up by the day in Closed Cases. 19% now. Been going up 1% every 48 hours consistently. You can read into that any way you want. 202,815 Closed Cases, 165,035 Recovered, and 37,780 Dead.

America hardly has any Closed Cases yet. Too small of a sample size. However: 8,654 Closed Cases. 5,506 Recovered. 3,148 dead. 36% Death Rate in Closed Cases. Once again, can read into this any way you want.

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36 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Death Rate still going up by the day in Closed Cases. 19% now. Been going up 1% every 48 hours consistently. You can read into that any way you want. 202,815 Closed Cases, 165,035 Recovered, and 37,780 Dead.

America hardly has any Closed Cases yet. Too small of a sample size. However: 8,654 Closed Cases. 5,506 Recovered. 3,148 dead. 36% Death Rate in Closed Cases. Once again, can read into this any way you want.

The major issue with only using closed cases is we have no idea how many cases have actually recovered, total cases represents the number confirmed by testing but not everyone who is tested and confirmed to have the virus is monitored. Most people take the test, it comes back positive and they are sent home to get better and I highly highly doubt most of them are ever really monitored or checked up on unless they require hospitalization, the health systems have too much on their plate right now to pay attention to mild cases.

Those numbers may have some merit being applied to cases that require hospitalization because those are the majority of cases that are being "closed" but it is in no way an accurate estimation of all cases for the reasons above.

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2 minutes ago, theJ said:

Yes, yes you can. 

It’s a bit if an eye opener at the bare minimum. Media told you 2-3% to prevent a mass panic. In reality though even with unofficial cases, 4-5% is the minimum this would settle at. And it’a very possible 10%+ just like SARS. Biologists are the best ones to talk about this with. 

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2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

It’s a bit if an eye opener at the bare minimum. Media told you 2-3% to prevent a mass panic. In reality though even with unofficial cases, 4-5% is the minimum this would settle at. And it’a very possible 10%+ just like SARS. Biologists are the best ones to talk about this with. 

So why are less than 1% of people who have tested positive in New Rochelle even hospitalized?  One of the few places they are doing widespread testing.  

Similar results in the town of Zo in Italy where they tested every resident. 

Similar results on Diamond Princess once you account for age profile of the passengers. 

Wherever we do widespread testing of a population regardless of symptoms, the results suggest a large number of mild or asymptomatic cases and a CFR below 1%.

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6 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

It’s a bit if an eye opener at the bare minimum. Media told you 2-3% to prevent a mass panic. In reality though even with unofficial cases, 4-5% is the minimum this would settle at. And it’a very possible 10%+ just like SARS. Biologists are the best ones to talk about this with. 

That doesn't even make sense considering the vast majority of stories produced by the media are creating panic, not preventing it.

Not to mention the media is one thing but what you're talking about would require a massive cover up the likes of which the world has NEVER seen before with literally every single government on the planet, the CDC, the WHO, and every major health official on the planet lying about the numbers...it's just not realistic to think that would happen. 

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52 minutes ago, BullsandBroncos said:

Blown out of proportion in the US. I'm convinced.

I’m not sure that pallets of bodies being lifted into the back of meat trucks is something you can blow out of proportion. It speaks for itself.

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