Tugboat Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, mistakey said: https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/30/andrew-pekosz-immunity-seasonality/ What's the role of seasonality in the spread of this virus? A lot of respiratory viruses have a seasonality. In areas that have seasons, you often see more respiratory disease in the winter than in the summer. That's because the conditions of lower temperature and lower humidity help facilitate transmission of the virus. COVID-19 is entering the population during the winter but we don't know if it's going to act like a typical respiratory virus in terms of seasonality. We don't know if COVID-19 will be very dependent on winter to effectively transmit, like the flu, or if it will find ways to effectively transmit throughout the year. If we look to the Southern hemisphere, in parts of South America and in Australia, we're seeing significant COVID-19 outbreaks even though this is their summer season. So we're expecting that the virus is going to be able to transmit here at least to some extent after the winter months. https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/ Several people, including the US president, have suggested that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes, COVID-19, will go away on its own in the warmer weather that will come in the Northern Hemisphere in coming months. Some have even suggested that the experience with SARS in 2003 provides evidence for this assertion. The short answer is that while we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather and perhaps with the closing of schools in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, it is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a big dent. The whole thing with Covid-19, is that in some ways...it's fortunate that it's fundamentally NOT like typical season Flu viruses. It's a very specific strain that has obviously been catastrophic. But the only hope with this thing...is that unlike the typical season flu virus...it's from a different strain, and it appears to have some significant anti-mutagenic coding in it or whatever. Which essentially means...it's here to stay, but it's why there's hope that once people have been exposed and recovered, they can't be re-infected. And why an eventual vaccine may be able to pretty much wipe it out. Edited March 31, 2020 by Tugboat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVScout Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’ https://news.yahoo.com/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/ phillipines just added 25% of their total cases on mar 31 and its gonna be 95F there tomorrow Don’t ruin this for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, TVScout said: Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’ https://news.yahoo.com/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html I mean, I get it, but that’s an anonymous source on a yahoo article. Is it wrong? Maybe not, but that’s hardly “evidence”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just wait until things start going exponential in India. Gonna be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, TVScout said: Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’ https://news.yahoo.com/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html So, about $420 bucks for "funeral expenses" and "silence". That's enough to buy that? Even if it's true...what exactly does it prove? The virus is more deadly than American is giving it credit for? We've got plenty of data for how this thing hits western "democracies". It's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, Tugboat said: This is the thing that gives me the most hope of a way out of this hole, that doesn't just keep rotating around for months on end. If they can actually use that mass testing to isolate specific antibodies. It's the sort of approach that makes sense to me. It's just a matter of...actually managing to isolate the thing they need to...in order to issue those, "immune/cured/healed" certificates. It'd let the world get somewhat back to normal, without big risk. the problem is, people who arent immune arent going to accept indefinite lockdown while a small % get to go back to their lives It will certainly be useful to know who has had the disease and who hasn't, and it might allow certain people to work during a lockdown, but it doesnt change the need for potentially susceptible people to go back to their lives far before there is a vaccine if there ever is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, mission27 said: the problem is, people who arent immune arent going to accept indefinite lockdown while a small % get to go back to their lives It will certainly be useful to know who has had the disease and who hasn't, and it might allow certain people to work during a lockdown, but it doesnt change the need for potentially susceptible people to go back to their lives far before there is a vaccine if there ever is one Even if that's the case. If you have enough immune/recovered out there in the world...it'll drastically slow the spread as vulnerable people are let back out into the world too. It's how "herd immunity" actually works, more or less. To elaborate..."immune" certs would go to people who are no longer able to transmit the virus. That's the key. That's a lot of potential people back out there in the world doing normal stuff...which at a certain saturation point, is enough to start letting other people back out into the world with a massively lower risk of infection. Edited March 31, 2020 by Tugboat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-states-peak-hospitals-53274e0e-69b8-4dc7-b069-fb27955c559a.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic east coast is going to be in bad shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 hours ago, malagabears said: Spanish stats took a hit upwards today. Hopefully the rest of this week it starts to flatten. It's just the influence of Catalonia TBH. Data across the country looks "good". This week is going to be the one with most deaths, and from April 9th onwards (aproximately) active cases will start to drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, mistakey said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/ phillipines just added 25% of their total cases on mar 31 and its gonna be 95F there tomorrow Yeah and they reported a 9% rise the day before and there are only 2k cases right now in a country of 105m people in East Asia with extensive travel to China... its a blip until we see the number continue to increase over an extended period of time At the early stages when you are finally starting to test imported cases and close contacts the degree of community spread is completely irrelevant, you'll see rapid growth from those imported and close contacts alone The key is it wont look like an exponential curve, it will be very noisy linear growth that will quickly level off Australia reported a 50% spike in cases on March 22nd but has yet to see another day over 500 new cases, even as the denominator continues to grow Brazil has been reporting around the same number of daily cases for the past 10 days Compare that to growth in Europe and North America... Italy reported 500 new cases on March 4th and had 3x as many new cases a week later and the rate of growth consistently increased for 3 weeks... USA reported 500 new cases on March 13th and had 10x as many new cases a week later and the same thing, aggressive growth trajectory Thats what rampant community spread looks like If the Phillipines is at 100k+ cases in a few weeks, and Manila develops into a hotspot metro area like New York or Milan, that becomes more relevant Btw, seasonality doesn't mean there can't be outbreaks in warm places, if the R0 in winter is 2-3 the R0 in summer may still be above 1, and many of these metros in the southern hemisphere or tropics are way poorer and more densely populated than New York or Milan Seasonality doesn't mean the spread will stop, it will only slow it, and if you look at the rate of growth in warm places vs. cold places there does seem to be a very strong correlation suggesting seasonality ... which again should be our prior here, because basically every other similar virus to this one exhibits seasonality, and is the working assumption folks like Fauci are going with right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, mission27 said: Yeah and they reported a 9% rise the day before and there are only 2k cases right now in a country of 105m people in East Asia with extensive travel to China... its a blip until we see the number continue to increase over an extended period of time At the early stages when you are finally starting to test imported cases and close contacts the degree of community spread is completely irrelevant, you'll see rapid growth from those imported and close contacts alone The key is it wont look like an exponential curve, it will be very noisy linear growth that will quickly level off Australia reported a 50% spike in cases on March 22nd but has yet to see another day over 500 new cases, even as the denominator continues to grow Brazil has been reporting around the same number of daily cases for the past 10 days Compare that to growth in Europe and North America... Italy reported 500 new cases on March 4th and had 3x as many new cases a week later and the rate of growth consistently increased for 3 weeks... USA reported 500 new cases on March 13th and had 10x as many new cases a week later and the same thing, aggressive growth trajectory Thats what rampant community spread looks like If the Phillipines is at 100k+ cases in a few weeks, and Manila develops into a hotspot metro area like New York or Milan, that becomes more relevant Btw, seasonality doesn't mean there can't be outbreaks in warm places, if the R0 in winter is 2-3 the R0 in summer may still be above 1, and many of these metros in the southern hemisphere or tropics are way poorer and more densely populated than New York or Milan Seasonality doesn't mean the spread will stop, it will only slow it, and if you look at the rate of growth in warm places vs. cold places there does seem to be a very strong correlation suggesting seasonality ... which again should be our prior here, because basically every other similar virus to this one exhibits seasonality, and is the working assumption folks like Fauci are going with right now ok bro dont trust anything out of brazil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tugboat said: Even if that's the case. If you have enough immune/recovered out there in the world...it'll drastically slow the spread as vulnerable people are let back out into the world too. It's how "herd immunity" actually works, more or less. To elaborate..."immune" certs would go to people who are no longer able to transmit the virus. That's the key. That's a lot of potential people back out there in the world doing normal stuff...which at a certain saturation point, is enough to start letting other people back out into the world with a massively lower risk of infection. It just depends how many people are immune though right? You're probably going to test a representative sample first If we do the testing and find that 50% of the population has already had it, that's amazing news, it means we're already over the hump and there's some degree of herd immunity and that the CFR was in fact much lower than published numbers... but in that case you're probably lifting lockdowns shortly in general and no need for antibody tests for everyone and everyone goes back to their lives If we do the testing and find less than 0.5% of the population has already had it, then the CFR probably is pretty high and that's not a high enough proportion of the population to really slow the spread of the virus yet, and while immunity certificates could allow for a few people to return to work a week early or something, you're just not going to get away with only allowing immune people to live their lives for long... you'll have riots in the street and people purposefully trying to contract the virus to go back to their lives... its also a violation of fundamental rights The one place where I think this is enormously helpful though is with health care providers and others on the front lines where the information of who is immune would make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: ok bro dont trust anything out of brazil Forget the exact numbers for a second if you dont trust the numbers. What exactly makes you think this virus is not seasonal when most other viral respiratory infections are seasonal including other coronaviruses and when all of the most severe outbreaks have occurred in temperate winter climates? People get colds and flus in the summer too. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people with the common cold in Brazil right now or Australia. That does not mean the common cold is not seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: It just depends how many people are immune though right? You're probably going to test a representative sample first If we do the testing and find that 50% of the population has already had it, that's amazing news, it means we're already over the hump and there's some degree of herd immunity and that the CFR was in fact much lower than published numbers... but in that case you're probably lifting lockdowns shortly in general and no need for antibody tests for everyone and everyone goes back to their lives If we do the testing and find less than 0.5% of the population has already had it, then the CFR probably is pretty high and that's not a high enough proportion of the population to really slow the spread of the virus yet, and while immunity certificates could allow for a few people to return to work a week early or something, you're just not going to get away with only allowing immune people to live their lives for long... you'll have riots in the street and people purposefully trying to contract the virus to go back to their lives... its also a violation of fundamental rights The one place where I think this is enormously helpful though is with health care providers and others on the front lines where the information of who is immune would make a big difference That's not really the idea behind the German concept though. It's not about testing a "representative sample" to gather data or flattering percentages or whatever. It's about testing a "likely to be recovered" sample of largely healthy people who may have had it with minimal symptoms. It's a sort of testing where you're hoping that 100% of people test positive, or as close to it as you can get. Which means in theory at least...you're going to get a large portion of the people back to work and functioning as normal because they've already had the Corona and recovered. From there, you can start releasing people progressively. Other "low risk" people can start rolling back out into normal life. If they get it...you monitor, and have adequate healthcare facilities to treat the low percentage of severe cases. You just keep the particularly vulnerable demographics (like old people, immunocompromised, unhealthy people) locked in for a while, until its actually safe for them to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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