Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

56 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

You can't just look at percentages though... The number of people tested in the United States has likely already eclipsed the entire population of Iceland.

Right but the vast majority of people in the US who have been tested are people who are coming into hospitals with very serious illness 

In the few places we have tested a higher proportion of the population (like Westchester County, NY) results suggest a significant number of mild and asymptomatic cases which would be consistent with what we're seeing in Iceland and other places with more widespread testing 

[pwny]

I don’t have the time to look through, but does this study show that half of those who get the virus never show symptoms, or that half of all those found in Iceland are asymptomatic at the time of testing?

[rob_shadows]

4 minutes ago, pwny said:

I don’t have the time to look through, but does this study show that half of those who get the virus never show symptoms, or that half of all those found in Iceland are asymptomatic at the time of testing?

I'm pretty sure they mean that they are asymptomatic for the duration of the virus but I'm not positive.

[ramssuperbowl99]

5 minutes ago, pwny said:

I don’t have the time to look through, but does this study show that half of those who get the virus never show symptoms, or that half of all those found in Iceland are asymptomatic at the time of testing?

The latter.

[ramssuperbowl99]

The fact that enrollment was based on voluntary screening means you likely expect the true percentage of asymptomatic cases to be even higher.

[pwny]

8 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The latter.

This is kinda what we expected then, right? We know the median incubation period is 5 days and can apparently be up to 2 weeks. If a country does widespread voluntary testing and gets a high turn out, wouldn’t we expect a very significant portion of respondents to be in that incubation period? That at 30% of all positive cases + a 20% truly asymptomatic group doesn’t seem that wildly unlikely, does it?

[mission27]

1 hour ago, pwny said:

This is kinda what we expected then, right? We know the median incubation period is 5 days and can apparently be up to 2 weeks. If a country does widespread voluntary testing and gets a high turn out, wouldn’t we expect a very significant portion of respondents to be in that incubation period? That at 30% of all positive cases + a 20% truly asymptomatic group doesn’t seem that wildly unlikely, does it?

Well yes but you also aren't going to test positive throughout that entire incubation period 

So yes are there people who will test positive, not yet have exhibited symptoms, but become symptomatic?  Definitely.  But I doubt it would come close to accounting for 50% of all positive tests.  And to rams point, since this is a sample based on people volunteering to be tested, there's probably a bias towards people who are exhibiting symptoms (those are the people who would be most motivated to participate). 

[pwny]

39 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Well yes but you also aren't going to test positive throughout that entire incubation period 

So yes are there people who will test positive, not yet have exhibited symptoms, but become symptomatic?  Definitely.  But I doubt it would come close to accounting for 50% of all positive tests.  And to rams point, since this is a sample based on people volunteering to be tested, there's probably a bias towards people who are exhibiting symptoms (those are the people who would be most motivated to participate). 

Yeah, but given the R-0 and that we know until it’s under control, cases double every three days when testing primarily symptomatic people, that would mean give or take a small percentage, there is just as many who have the virus and are within three days of the *symptomatic window* as there are people who are in or past the symptomatic window.

So my questions would be 1. when in that window are we able to detect it? I know I’ve seen single case data that anecdotally shows the body starting an immunoresponse three days prior to Symptoms; 2. What percentage of the population did they test? 3. What percentage of the population was tested and came back negative?

 

Then my last inquiry is—if this data is correct and not being misread—does this mean the R-0 is much higher than we thought?

[pwny]

A neighbor county to me is quarantining 175 people because health care officials think they have the virus but we have no tests.

 

I’m going to die. 

[Shanedorf]

11 hours ago, MWil23 said:

I'm far from a medical person, but I'd be interested to see how those treated outside (ala Central Park tents) recover in comparison to those inside. I know that this is a terrible comparison, as it's a different illness altogether and it's 102 years later, with technology coming leaps and bounds since, but those with the Spanish Flu who were treated outside improved markedly better than those treated inside.

The patients who are inside are in usually in worse shape, some in the ICU. While the patients who are treated outside don't yet need that level of care.
So given that, you'd expect the outside patients to do better than the inside patients because they just aren't as sick.
Now there may be some other factors at play here, but this is one reason behind any discrepancy in outcomes in the modern world.

100 years ago ? No clue what went down in those situations. 

[mission27]

Its 1am GMT to the numbers are about to flip to a new day and the MoL minions will begin crunching.  Stand by.

[titansNvolsR#1]

WA stay at home extended until May 4. Seeing more and more masks and gloves when we go to the grocery store. Keep forgetting my clorox wipes to wipe the buggy down when shopping but what can you do. 

[mission27]

4/2/2020 MoL Scores:

"Every day is like a battle but every night with us is like a dream" - Taylor Swift

In today's edition of the MoL, several European countries appear to be at the apex of their corona curves while Sweden and Ireland make their debuts on the list

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

China: 1.1 (MoL audited our China figures for the last few days and found some slight issue, MoLs should have been ~1.1-1.2 on each of those days so holding steady)

South Korea: 2.2

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Italy: 6.5 (New cases continue to hover in the 4ks, next few days will be key, MoL expects to see these numbers start to fall between now and Monday or Tuesday and Italy to hit an apex)

Austria: 7.2 (Austria's active case numbers have been basically flat for 3 days, may have reached its apex) 

Switzerland: 7.7 (Likewise Switzerlands active case numbers have fallen 2 days in a row, although new case numbers have remained stubbornly above 1k, next 3 days will be a key test of whether Switzerland can break this MoL level and start heading towards Tier 1 status)

Australia: 9.7 (as the MoL predicted several days ago an outbreak appears to have been avoided due to #seasonality and the hard work of @Shady Slim)

Netherlands: 10.8 (another Tier 2 country!)

Hong Kong: 10.9 

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Germany: 11.1 (close to jumping into Tier 2... the MoL will give it another day or two to be sure)

Ireland (NEW): 12.1  

Sweden (NEW): 12.8  (the country of LKS that pursued the unhinged strategy of not distancing at all has seen a spike in new cases the last two days, but their MoL remains low, we should watch this one)

Spain: 14.1 

Iran: 14.2  (after a brief spike Iran seems to be headed in the right direction again)

France: 14.6 (France active cases actually dropped today, although as the MoL identified there have been changes in their reporting criteria which may make the curve a little funky) 

Portugal: 15.4

Belgium: 16.1 (numbers look a lot better the last few days - remember, their MoL was in the 30s on Monday)

Israel: 18.4 (back in Tier 3)

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Right now Tier 4 includes the three amigos who are holding steady in the low 20s: 

USA: 20.5 (is likely to drop significantly over the next days and weeks as NY peaks, but MoL will keep an eye on developing hot spots before we consider moving into Tier 3)

UK: 20.8

Canada: 21.7

As well as 4 large developing countries with some scary growth numbers but less penetration: 

Brazil: 21.9 (not completely clear how reliable data is, we've yet to see an exponential growth curve and they may be helped by climate) 

Turkey: 29.7 (#s remain high but appear to be stabilizing a bit)

India: 35.4 (while the growth ugly, important to remember India is the second most populous country and only has less than 3k reported cases, we'll keep an eye on this one)

Edited April 3, 2020 by mission27

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, titansNvolsR#1 said:

WA stay at home extended until May 4. Seeing more and more masks and gloves when we go to the grocery store. Keep forgetting my clorox wipes to wipe the buggy down when shopping but what can you do. 

grab one of the plastic bags used for veggies and lay it over the buggy handle. You could also use them as  gloves

 

[Glen]

2 hours ago, pwny said:

A neighbor county to me is quarantining 175 people because health care officials think they have the virus but we have no tests.

 

I’m going to die. 

Even through death we WILL make FF great again!

Pwny/Glem 2020