Jump to content

Coronavirus (COVID-19)


Webmaster

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, mission27 said:

I understand, but my point is deaths are going to be a direct proportion to % of population that gets infected for the most part (yes an oversimplification but generally true).  If they had reached 20-30% immunity they would have more deaths.  And on the flip side if their deaths were in line with Finland or Denmark, they'd have a very low % of the population with antibodies.  You can't have your cake and eat it too.  We're arguing about where Sweden is on what is basically a linear curve and saying simultaneously that X is too high and Y is too low.  That's not really a valid criticism.  I don't know much about Swedish politics, wouldn't surprise me if their leaders promised them something that wasn't possible, as our leaders have repeatedly. 

As far as not seeing a problem... of course I see a problem with people dying and this is a horrible situation... my personal view is that the lockdowns were misguided and the long term social and economic consequences will be far greater than even the worst case scenario from this virus.  I understand and respect that's a minority position although I personally believe that, in 10 years, most will view what we've done here as a mistake.  As a guy with a degree in economics who wrote his thesis on the long term economic and social impact of the Great Depression and the hundreds of millions of people who lost their lives or lived for decades under repressive regimes as a result, I think we're making a mistake.  Just as I'm sure your background focuses you on the public health consequences of this pandemic.  Again, its not that I don't care about the loss of life, but I'm genuinely concerned about the other side of the coin being many times worse and I think there was a middle ground that would have better balanced various interests.  

With that being said, given the rest of the world is not pursuing herd immunity or even a middle ground approach, I think Sweden made a big mistake.  Because they will not escape the COVID Depression and will now be shunned by the global community for months or more, until they do reach herd immunity (which is a long way off) or a vaccine is readily available.  Its very hard to go against the entire rest of the world and not good for your economy anyway. 

Also to be clear because some people on this site seem to think TLO and I have a platform: just because I would not have started the lockdowns in the first place doesn't mean I am in favor of not following the rules.  And the "new normal" that we are getting back to in the very near term is pretty close to the middle ground I'm talking about anyway.  We are fully supportive of everyone wearing masks, distancing when possible, and avoiding large crowds.  That is common sense stuff.

I'm not trying to directly attack you so I apologize if it came off that way. But I disagree with your notion that you can't have low deaths and still get through this. I would rather place my bets on the vaccine coming than herd immunity at this point. They have already shown that's Sweden's economy still took a huge hit even without going on lockdown. I definitely understand the opposite point of view and I wondered quite a bit about whether that was going to be the way this will have to go. Now looking at the numbers it really seems like they made a big mistake like you said. 

To reiterate I never thought you guys had any platform with your posts and there is a lot of information in them that is helpful. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, seriously27 said:

But I disagree with your notion that you can't have low deaths and still get through this. I would rather place my bets on the vaccine coming than herd immunity at this point.

Not trying to suggest that isn't a valid or possible strategy btw.  Its just not the strategy Sweden is pursuing.  My point is you can't try for both low deaths and high antibodies.  They are both the direct result of letting people get exposed to the virus.  To have lower deaths they'd have to have lower immunity today and to have higher immunity they'd have to have more deaths.  There's a strong correlation. 

You can absolutely criticize Sweden's strategy, my issue isn't with people criticizing Sweden's strategy.  My issue is with some in the media (who don't really understand this) suggesting that it is a "failed" strategy because they aren't at 70% immunity and low deaths.  That was never the idea and that was never a possibility.  They are right where you'd expect them to be if they successfully executed their strategy... more deaths and immunity than countries that locked down early and crushed the curve, but managed to avoid a huge number of deaths all at once that strained or overwhelmed health care systems in NYC, Italy, Madrid, etc.

Again I just find it hypocritical to see people saying Sweden failed because of too many deaths and then at the same time criticizing Sweden for only having 10% immunity.  They are directly related.  If they were at 70% immunity they'd have ~7x as many deaths.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, seriously27 said:

They have already shown that's Sweden's economy still took a huge hit even without going on lockdown

That's because Sweden's economy (like everyone else's) is too linked to the rest of the world to be able to effectively isolate it.  @mission27 made a good point insinuating that it was a pretty dumb strategy knowing that the rest of the world was going on lock down anyway.  There really wasn't any way their economy wasn't going to tank with the rest of the world.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, theJ said:

That's because Sweden's economy (like everyone else's) is too linked to the rest of the world to be able to effectively isolate it.  @mission27 made a good point insinuating that it was a pretty dumb strategy knowing that the rest of the world was going on lock down anyway.  There really wasn't any way their economy wasn't going to tank with the rest of the world.

Which begs the question as to why go for herd immunity then? What exactly were you saving?? if the vaccine doesn't come quickly then you get the immunity eventually anyways. This is exactly my point. They saved nothing by going this route and it's only hurt the people who live there. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, seriously27 said:

Which begs the question as to why go for herd immunity then? What exactly were you saving?? if the vaccine doesn't come quickly then you get the immunity eventually anyways. This is exactly my point. They saved nothing by going this route and it's only hurt the people who live there. 

I agree

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/24/2020 at 12:13 PM, kingseanjohn said:

Lake of the Ozarks this weekend. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

 

 

A little follow up on this....

Quote

The Camden County Health Department said Friday a Boone County resident who has tested positive for COVID-19 visited the Lake of the Ozarks during Memorial Day Weekend.

According to Health Director Bee Dampier, the case arrived at the Lake on Saturday and started showing symptoms on Sunday. Dampier said it is likely COVID-19 was incubating illness during that person's visit...

On Saturday, May 23, the positive case visited Backwater Jacks between 1 and 5 p.m. Then, they went to Shady Gators and Lazy Gators Pool from 5:40 to 9 p.m.

From Shady Gators, the case went back to Backwater Jacks from 9:40 to 10 p.m.

On Sunday, May 24, the case had lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings in Lake Ozark from 1 to 2 p.m., went to Shady Gators from 2:30 until around 7 p.m., then got a cab from Shady Gators to a private home...

Rest of story HERE

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5/29/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"You have the nerve to feign moral superiority before threatening violence?"

- Taylor Swift

Great day for the Canada. Wow.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

giphy.gif

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still!)

Netherlands: 0.4

Belgium: 0.7

UK: 0.8

France: 0.8

Italy: 0.9

Spain: 1.0

Japan: 1.1

Portugal: 1.2

Israel: 1.7

USA: 1.9

Switzerland: 1.9

Australia: 2.2

Czech Republic: 2.2

Sweden: 2.2

Singapore: 2.8

Canada: 2.9 (Canada breaks into Tier 1 with an all-time low score, great!)

Ireland: 2.9

Global: 3.1

Turkey: 3.2

Germany: 3.8

Austria: 3.9

China: 4.2

Philippines: 4.5

Hong Kong: 6.1

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

source.gif

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Russia: 3.9

South Korea: 5.2 (A note: the reason we have moved South Korea into Tier 2 and left other countries like Hong Kong and China in Tier 1 is that South Korea's jump is driven by a huge jump in cases (the numerator) which is indicative of a new mini outbreak, rather than a fall in active cases (the denominator) which is a normal part of the downslope, SK has done a great job so far in containing these things and we expect they'll do the same here in which case they'll be back in Tier 1)

Denmark: 5.7

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

giphy.gif

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Iran: 9.7 (gonna need a few more days in the single digits before we move them)

India: 10.0

Brazil: 11.3 (third straight day Brazil had most new cases in the world almost 30k today, big issues, lets hope they turn things around)

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

source.gif

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 25.3

USA State Level MoLs

image.png

Minnesota getting close to breaking into Tier 2, which would be nice.

MoL Deaths

Deaths ticked down yet again, ever so slightly, it will be tough to see big gains over the weekend given we are going up against a long weekend lul but its been encouraging that these numbers haven't jumped back up post Memorial Day so even if we plateau for a few days, not a big deal.  We've made a lot of progress.

image.png

Canada

image.png

Great job @JBURGE

Tier 1!  Quebec might jump into Tier 1 itself in the next couple of days and Ontario not far behind.  What a country!  I've heard Trudeau is going to start opening up the border for family reunification and hopefully a full reopening is in the cards, if not on June 21st then not too long thereafter, so the MoL can have our summit in French Canada. 

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

source.gif

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 26/05/2020 at 8:51 AM, naptownskinsfan said:

Dow and S&P 500 surged to their highest levels since March, and the Nasdaq hit it's highest point since February.  

I just checked the statement on my primary investment portfolio, and despite taking some money out while I was off work, it has gained back what I lost during the downturn in just a month's time.  

Things are going well, for the economy!  Our portfolios are doing better than the people.  So that's nice.

 

17 hours ago, mission27 said:

I understand, but my point is deaths are going to be a direct proportion to % of population that gets infected for the most part (yes an oversimplification but generally true).  If they had reached 20-30% immunity they would have more deaths.  And on the flip side if their deaths were in line with Finland or Denmark, they'd have a very low % of the population with antibodies.  You can't have your cake and eat it too.  We're arguing about where Sweden is on what is basically a linear curve and saying simultaneously that X is too high and Y is too low.  That's not really a valid criticism.  I don't know much about Swedish politics, wouldn't surprise me if their leaders promised them something that wasn't possible, as our leaders have repeatedly. 

As far as not seeing a problem... of course I see a problem with people dying and this is a horrible situation... my personal view is that the lockdowns were misguided and the long term social and economic consequences will be far greater than even the worst case scenario from this virus.  I understand and respect that's a minority position although I personally believe that, in 10 years, most will view what we've done here as a mistake.  As a guy with a degree in economics who wrote his thesis on the long term economic and social impact of the Great Depression and the hundreds of millions of people who lost their lives or lived for decades under repressive regimes as a result, I think we're making a mistake.  Just as I'm sure your background focuses you on the public health consequences of this pandemic.  Again, its not that I don't care about the loss of life, but I'm genuinely concerned about the other side of the coin being many times worse and I think there was a middle ground that would have better balanced various interests.  

With that being said, given the rest of the world is not pursuing herd immunity or even a middle ground approach, I think Sweden made a big mistake.  Because they will not escape the COVID Depression and will now be shunned by the global community for months or more, until they do reach herd immunity (which is a long way off) or a vaccine is readily available.  Its very hard to go against the entire rest of the world and not good for your economy anyway. 

Also to be clear because some people on this site seem to think TLO and I have a platform: just because I would not have started the lockdowns in the first place doesn't mean I am in favor of not following the rules.  And the "new normal" that we are getting back to in the very near term is pretty close to the middle ground I'm talking about anyway.  We are fully supportive of everyone wearing masks, distancing when possible, and avoiding large crowds.  That is common sense stuff.

It was an absolutely insane strategy from the start though.  If you're serious about "reaching herd immunity" as fast as possible...you'd just have infected peoples cough a bunch on healthy people and you could hit that "herd immunity" threshold in record time.  But it'd be insane, and stupid.  That's essentially what the Swedish strategy boiled down to though...just without actually cutting to the point.

So they've killed a ton of people, especially relative to neighbouring very similar countries...and their economy is still suffering massively, like everyone else.  Because it's a global economy and Sweden isn't self-sufficient enough to completely operate on their own.

 

13 hours ago, mission27 said:

Not trying to suggest that isn't a valid or possible strategy btw.  Its just not the strategy Sweden is pursuing.  My point is you can't try for both low deaths and high antibodies.  They are both the direct result of letting people get exposed to the virus.  To have lower deaths they'd have to have lower immunity today and to have higher immunity they'd have to have more deaths.  There's a strong correlation. 

You can absolutely criticize Sweden's strategy, my issue isn't with people criticizing Sweden's strategy.  My issue is with some in the media (who don't really understand this) suggesting that it is a "failed" strategy because they aren't at 70% immunity and low deaths.  That was never the idea and that was never a possibility.  They are right where you'd expect them to be if they successfully executed their strategy... more deaths and immunity than countries that locked down early and crushed the curve, but managed to avoid a huge number of deaths all at once that strained or overwhelmed health care systems in NYC, Italy, Madrid, etc.

Again I just find it hypocritical to see people saying Sweden failed because of too many deaths and then at the same time criticizing Sweden for only having 10% immunity.  They are directly related.  If they were at 70% immunity they'd have ~7x as many deaths.

I mean...you're suggesting that the entire point of the strategy was to race to substantial "herd immunity", and they've flagrantly failed to do so.  They've had far more deaths than expected, while only being a fraction of the way to the herd immunity this strategy was supposed to generate.  If that's not a failure...i don't know what is.

 

 

Honestly, i think a degree in Economics ought to disqualify a person from commenting on human beings and their life.  There are many schools of economics...but the contemporary popular ones...literally treat human beings as numbers, and imo that is bad.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Blahstoise said:

‘Superspreaders’ Could Actually Make Covid-19 Easier to Control

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-28/superspreader-events-might-actually-help-control-covid-19?sref=2o0rZsF1

Interesting read

Pretty confident the amount of super spreaders in many major cities in the U.S is going to skyrocket 

Edited by rob_shadows
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the MoL and the Database and everything else:

An ongoing repository of data on coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S.:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

 

Pandemic’s overall death
toll in U.S. likely surpassed
100,000 weeks ago

 

A state-by-state analysis shows that deaths officially attributed to covid-
19 only partially account for unusually high mortality during the pandemic
 

South Korea closes schools again amid coronavirus spike, days after reopening

Quote
Quote

South Korea closed hundreds of schools that had reopened days earlier — and postponed the opening of many others — after a spike in cases of the
novel coronavirus.

The country had started to stage the opening of schools in the last week, instituting social distancing and prevention measures in an attempt to prevent the spread of the virus.

But according to the Korea Times, hundreds of schools were closed again because of high infection rates in their communities. It cited the Ministry of Education as saying that 838 schools of the 20,902 nationwide that were supposed to reopen on Wednesday did not, including in Seoul, and hundreds closed on Thursday in Seoul, Bucheon and other cities.  

School districts in the United States that have been closed for months are now trying to figure out when and how they can reopen safely. Some are watching how other countries are handling the reopening of schools, including South Korea, which has been successful in containing the spread of the virus.

 

South Korea had more diagnosed patients with coronavirus than any country other than China in late February, but it implemented a tough program of contact tracing, isolation and other measures, containing the virus. South Korea still reports that fewer than 300 people have died of covid-19.

After putting plastic barriers in many schools to separate students while they eat and learn, disinfecting, and other preventive steps, some schools began to open last week for the first time in several months, with more accepting students this week.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/05/30/south-korea-closes-schools-again-amid-covid-19-spike-days-after-reopening/                          

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Things are going well, for the economy!  Our portfolios are doing better than the people.  So that's nice.

Wall Street's not the economy. Not even close.

The debt is thru the roof.
Unemployment is north of 40M
Food lines are long. Cash registers have just begin ringing up again yet bankruptcies will be huge this year.
Over 100,000 Americans have died in 3 months.
The nation is roiled in riots.
Yet WS had an uptick? LOL

Wall Street's not the economy.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...