vike daddy Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 what does the term "closed case" mean? sorry for the obvious dumb question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: Have a source on that? The obesity part. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241523151.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, vike daddy said: what does the term "closed case" mean? sorry for the obvious dumb question. It means cases that are closed. They either officially recovered and tested negative for corona or died. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, BayRaider said: No they don’t.... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countr 9 minutes ago, BayRaider said: No they don’t.... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ Italy has a 45% death rate in Closed Cases which has stayed consistent for a month now dead even at 45%. People need to stop adding Active Cases that are pending an Outcome skewing the results. The disease takes 3 weeks to kill you usually. y/italy/ Italy has a 45% death rate in Closed Cases which has stayed consistent for a month now dead even at 45%. People need to stop adding Active Cases that are pending an Outcome skewing the results. The disease takes 3 weeks to kill you usually. isn’t the average age of death in Italy over 70? great health care actually seems like a death knell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, pwny said: There’s about 150x as many people who got it in the last three weeks compared to those who can be cleared from surviving it, and testing wise it’s worse than that. right 99% of the deaths got it in the last 3 weeks almost no one who got it in the last 3 weeks could have been cleared by now and booked as a recovery its wildly skewed until several weeks after we peak, if not longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, BayRaider said: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241523151.html I know. I've read other sources too. I'm just curious where he's getting the conflicting information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, vike daddy said: what does the term "closed case" mean? sorry for the obvious dumb question. A person who would no longer have any risk of spreading the virus or needing medical attention; i.e either recovered cases or people who died. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSUeagles14 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, BayRaider said: Obesity DOES make you more likely to die from Coronavirus. Any poor health or pre-existing condition does. Obesity = Extremely Poor Health. There have been mountains of doctors saying Obesity are high risk for death with coronavirus. Including the guy on Joe Rogan. the only thing i could find is crap websites like the dailymail and they used an awful thing like BMI to define Obesity which is not ideal to say the least. Im obese by that measure and yet I somehow have a 3.5 pack when the light hits just right.We know it affects the elderly harder, theres very little showing a tie to obesity alone and increased risk to coronavirus. Completely open to be proven wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, pwny said: Closed case death rate isn’t something you look at as a true death rate at all. People die earlier in the timeline of having the virus than they recover from it. Which means that people who got the virus a week ago are only cleared if they’re dead. There’s about 150x as many people who got it in the last three weeks compared to those who can be cleared from surviving it, and testing wise it’s worse than that. The closed case rate is important in contextualizing that we just simply don’t know how it is going to turn out for us here because we’ve closed so few cases, not that we can point to the closed case rate as the *true death rate*. This is false information. Experts say the virus has two death points: Very Early On and also at the very end when the person actually seems to get much better. That’s why the virus Mild Condition Rate has stayed consistently at 95% and the death rate has climbed to 18%. Obviously those numbers don’t add up. This thing has a known “Toilet Bowl” effect experts call it. You get a lot better and then a few days at the end you get worse again and die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said: And Italy has the world 2nd highest amount of elderly in relation to total population and smoking is rampant there. two things that actually make you more vulnerable, not obesity like @BayRaidersaid. Eh obesity makes you more vulnerable just by the definition of obesity. You can’t be obese and healthy lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, GSUeagles14 said: the only thing i could find is crap websites like the dailymail and they used an awful thing like BMI to define Obesity which is not ideal to say the least. Im obese by that measure and yet I somehow have a 3.5 pack when the light hits just right.We know it affects the elderly harder, theres very little showing a tie to obesity alone and increased risk to coronavirus. Completely open to be proven wrong though. Obesity means you are in poor health. Poor health means you are a high risk of dying from Coronavirus. Not rocket science. Just about every expert I’ve seen agrees on that. Read the link above, watch the expert on Joe Rogan, and many other sources as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chiefer said: Eh obesity makes you more vulnerable just by the definition of obesity. You can’t be obese and healthy lol. Exactly. Obesity means you are unhealthy. Lot of Americans need to be educated. And that’s not directed at GSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSUeagles14 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chiefer said: Eh obesity makes you more vulnerable just by the definition of obesity. You can’t be obese and healthy lol. im sorry man, but thats just not true. Im not that heavily muscled, but no where near fat. By BMI metrics im obese. I run 6 miles 3 times a week, id argue im significantly more healthy than the majority of people i see throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 If we want a better proxy for the CFR based on the active vs. total cases, I'd probably look at it this way the median time between testing positive and death is I believe about 5 days 5 days ago there were 44k total cases in the US and there are currently 2k deaths, which gets you to about a 4.5% CFR There are two offsetting factors at play here: 1. Some of the 44k active cases from 5 days ago are alive now but will die, which would increase the estimate 2. Some of the 80k people who have tested positive since then have also died since then, which would decrease the estimate Realistically, because of how (temporary) exponential growth works, the impact of #2 is much higher than the impact of #1, hence the 4.5% is overstated ... ultimately if we could look at the sample of 44k people who had tested positive on or before March 25th in 2 months my guess is something like 2-3% of them will end up as fatalities But that sample is extremely biased because, again, most of the people who are getting tested right now are the sickest cases. Even if you dont believe that there are large number asymptomatic or extremely mild cases (and there's a lot of supporting evidence for this), there are clearly many people with symptoms who are staying home and recovering at home because they cant get tests. Importantly these people have not died because if they had died of something resembling COVID-19 they certainty would have been tested and posthumously counted... whereas those who fair better (vast majority) are not counted until tested and not counted as recoveries for weeks or months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, GSUeagles14 said: im sorry man, but thats just not true. Im not that heavily muscled, but no where near fat. By BMI metrics im obese. I run 6 miles 3 times a week, id argue im significantly more healthy than the majority of people i see throughout the day. Science doesn’t lie. This is a clear case of bias. Almost every obese person I know doesn’t think they are obese. And obese doesn’t mean 275lbs like the McDonalds documentaries you see. You can’t be in the obese range on the BMI chart and be healthy. Unless you are a body builder with tons of muscle and not fat (rare). This is like people who own a house think the housing market won’t ever crash.... just bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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