pwny Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, BayRaider said: This is false information. Experts say the virus has two death points: Very Early On and also at the very end when the person actually seems to get much better. That’s why the virus Mild Condition Rate has stayed consistently at 95% and the death rate has climbed to 18%. Obviously those numbers don’t add up. This thing has a known “Toilet Bowl” effect experts call it. You get a lot better and then a few days at the end you get worse again and die. You literally refuted nothing I said. People are dying earlier in the lifespan of the virus than the recovery deadline. It does not matter whether it toilet bowls or not, people die quicker than people recover. This is a literal fact, and it’s why when I brought up the closed case rate two days ago, we had a 78% death rate in closed cases and now it’s 38%. That’s literally 2 days in which the total number of deaths has doubled, it saw the closed case death rate cut in half simply because we finally have people recovering that we can now count. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said: im sorry man, but thats just not true. Im not that heavily muscled, but no where near fat. By BMI metrics im obese. I run 6 miles 3 times a week, id argue im significantly more healthy than the majority of people i see throughout the day. The BMI system isn’t what I’m referring too, it’s actually very flawed . we all know the type of people i mean by “obese” and it’s not referencing to you mr. workout warrior.🏃♂️ those that are overweight, don’t exercise, don’t eat healthy, putting a heavy strain on their body already. Those are the high risk candidates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, mission27 said: If we want a better proxy for the CFR based on the active vs. total cases, I'd probably look at it this way the median time between testing positive and death is I believe about 5 days 5 days ago there were 44k total cases in the US and there are currently 2k deaths, which gets you to about a 4.5% CFR There are two offsetting factors at play here: 1. Some of the 44k active cases from 5 days ago are alive now but will die, which would increase the estimate 2. Some of the 80k people who have tested positive since then have also died since then, which would decrease the estimate Realistically, because of how (temporary) exponential growth works, the impact of #2 is much higher than the impact of #1, hence the 4.5% is overstated ... ultimately if we could look at the sample of 44k people who had tested positive on or before March 25th in 2 months my guess is something like 2-3% of them will end up as fatalities But that sample is extremely biased because, again, most of the people who are getting tested right now are the sickest cases. Even if you dont believe that there are large number asymptomatic or extremely mild cases (and there's a lot of supporting evidence for this), there are clearly many people with symptoms who are staying home and recovering at home because they cant get tests. Importantly these people have not died because if they had died of something resembling COVID-19 they certainty would have been tested and posthumously counted... whereas those who fair better (vast majority) are not counted until tested and not counted as recoveries for weeks or months It’ll be interesting where experts settle on the death rate in a decade from now but all I can say is the “official” death rate is not going under 15%, just like SARS (this thing is basically identical to SARS DNA wise). And the unofficial cases are grossly exaggerated. I’d say 90% of people think they have this just have the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said: im sorry man, but thats just not true. Im not that heavily muscled, but no where near fat. By BMI metrics im obese. I run 6 miles 3 times a week, id argue im significantly more healthy than the majority of people i see throughout the day. Again, do you have a credible source claiming that obesity is not a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/travisakers/status/1243990179557359616 remember when i said florida should look inward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, August4th said: this is wild Ah u beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSUeagles14 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, kingseanjohn said: Again, do you have a credible source claiming that obesity is not a factor? well thats not how the bar works. Do you have credible data that it is? anything ive seen, including the ones posted, doesnt say obesity alone. The original source to the miami herald article says over 70 and obese, so thats tied to the elderly. As i already said, im fine being proven wrong, can you show me credible articles saying obesity alone is the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: Again, do you have a credible source claiming that obesity is not a factor? Any poor health condition is a huge factor in dying when contracting it (although doesn’t make you more likely to “contract” it). Obesity is a poor health condition. Ignore him. Same tactic he always pulls ignoring common sense and experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 this is worth a gander through if people are at all interested in how it is spreading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, GSUeagles14 said: well thats not how the bar works. Do you have credible data that it is? anything ive seen, including the ones posted, doesnt say obesity alone. The original source to the miami herald article says over 70 and obese, so thats tied to the elderly. As i already said, im fine being proven wrong, can you show me credible articles saying obesity alone is the issue? Absolutely no one is saying that obesity alone is the issue. If you make a claim, such as you are, back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSUeagles14 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, kingseanjohn said: Absolutely no one is saying that obesity alone is the issue. If you make a claim, such as you are, back it up. well then you agree. Im claiming obesity alone is not the issue. Whats the confusion here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSUeagles14 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, BayRaider said: Any poor health condition is a huge factor in dying when contracting it (although doesn’t make you more likely to “contract” it). Obesity is a poor health condition. Ignore him. Same tactic he always pulls ignoring common sense and experts. nope, nevermind. Edited March 28, 2020 by GSUeagles14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, BayRaider said: It’ll be interesting where experts settle on the death rate in a decade from now but all I can say is the “official” death rate is not going under 15%, just like SARS (this thing is basically identical to SARS DNA wise). And the unofficial cases are grossly exaggerated. I’d say 90% of people think they have this just have the flu. I dont really understand why you believe this China and South Korea are the only countries who are at least temporarily at a point in the epidemic where their closed case statistics are somewhat relevant and both have fatality rates of 3-4% among close cases (IMO these will come down some as the remaining active cases are unlikely to result in many more fatalities, but still, I will admit the CFR based on official stats will not drop below 2 or 3% for a while, until we have more widespread testing or therapeutics) Its all well and good to say we 'dont believe China' but in almost all respects the progression of their statistics has mirrored how this has played out in all the other hot spots and we dont see people in China going on social media and saying the CCP is hiding cases anymore, so what is there to not believe? South Korea is a liberal democracy, what is there to not believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said: well then you agree. Im claiming obesity alone is not the issue. Whats the confusion here? 21 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said: 25 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Eh obesity makes you more vulnerable just by the definition of obesity. You can’t be obese and healthy lol. im sorry man, but thats just not true. Im not that heavily muscled, but no where near fat. By BMI metrics im obese. I run 6 miles 3 times a week, id argue im significantly more healthy than the majority of people i see throughout the day. I must have misunderstood your claim then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said: well then you agree. Im claiming obesity alone is not the issue. Whats the confusion here? I mean obesity alone isn’t a risk factor for anything. But obesity comes with other risk factors tied to the respiratory system that we classify as obesity-related illnesses. Given this attacks the respiratory system, it would be rather odd for obesity to not be a risk factor, given obesity related illnesses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts