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MacReady

MacReady

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Posted

I have ALWAYS taken lots of Vitamin C.  By always I mean I’ve been doing this for literally ten years.  Now Vitamin C was completely empty at my Walmart.  Completely empty.  My Walgreens had 4 things of it left.  I bought one chewable type and one pill type.  I don’t feel bad for that because normally I buy it in bulk and I would have purchased probably 8 of each. Hopefully this lasts at my regular pace until supply chains can catch up.

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vikesfan89

vikesfan89

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7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I have ALWAYS taken lots of Vitamin C.  By always I mean I’ve been doing this for literally ten years.  Now Vitamin C was completely empty at my Walmart.  Completely empty.  My Walgreens had 4 things of it left.  I bought one chewable type and one pill type.  I don’t feel bad for that because normally I buy it in bulk and I would have purchased probably 8 of each. Hopefully this lasts at my regular pace until supply chains can catch up.

I was surprised how when everything else was sold out the vitamins were still fully stocked. The next week some of the shelves were empty.

It still amazes me that I rarely see anything about supporting the immune system

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pwny

pwny

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5 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

It still amazes me that I rarely see anything about supporting the immune system

That's pretty much because vitamin C isn't believed to help in anything resembling a normal dose. There are trials going on now with extremely high doses to see if that helps, and some hospitals are trying it with patients, but normal does to support the immune system likely have little to no effect at all.

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Danger

Danger

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10 minutes ago, Blahstoise said:

Spain looks a week behind Italy, UK is 2-3 weeks behind so we'll be rising up quickly soon.

 

US is also 2-3 weeks behind. So looking at things through this veil. Figuring 2-3 weeks until we start the descent, another 4 weeks until things are relatively under control. Puts as early-mid may as a "resurrection date"

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mission27

mission27

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21 hours ago, mission27 said:

I cant tell if you are wildly misinformed or just trolling 

A very large portion of people who are being tested right now in the hotspots are people who are going to the hospital, i.e. people with the most serious illnesses.  People with mild symptoms are rightfully staying home and even those who want tests are often not getting tests.  We literally have a person in this thread (random sample of like 20 people across the globe) who has some of the telltale mild symptoms of COVID-19, asked for a test multiple times, and couldn't get one.   

Of those people who are going to the hospital, some will small % will get worse over the next 3-5 days and pass away, the vast majority will either be sent home or admitted and will recover over the next several weeks.  Those who die will be immediately reported as closed cases / fatalities.  Those who recover will recover over a much longer period of time and I seriously doubt major resources are dedicated to clearing and booking those recoveries.  Its not a priority right now.  Those recoveries are in addition to the likely large percentage of people who are infected by Coronavirus who experience mild symptoms and don't even get tested in the first place.

So of course while the epidemic is growing like crazy in the hotspot regions we are going to see a very high % of closed cases being the fatalities, because we just aren't picking up or closing mild cases.  As things start to get under control that % plummets.  Similar to what we saw in Wuhan.  And is likely still vastly overstated because it will not count anyone who was not tested and recovered. 

Point me to one serious expert or research suggesting a CFR over 4% (which btw its like 1/10th of that if not lower, but that seems to be the extreme high end of estimates right now)

As a follow up to this, article in the NYT yesterday said ~1% of people in New Rochelle who have tested positive for the coronavirus have been hospitalized 

New Rochelle is one of the few places (Vo in Italy is a more extreme example) that has instituted truly widespread testing 

Since we know a significant portion and likely large majority of people who have been hospitalized, even in the most hard hit areas like Lombardy, ultimately recover this suggest to me we are likely to experience a CFR well below 1%

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mission27

mission27

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Just now, Danger said:

US is also 2-3 weeks behind. So looking at things through this veil. Figuring 2-3 weeks until we start the descent, another 4 weeks until things are relatively under control. Puts as early-mid may as a "resurrection date"

I agree.  What makes US tricky is that we are such a large country, with no borders between regions, and different places will have peaks at different times.  It may be hard to resume life as normal in say NYC after things get under control there in May if a place like Florida is just peaking.  Would we quarantine off the hotspots that lag behind, could we open up normal air travel and international borders?  But we'll have to see what other hotspots develop.  Hopefully everything is trending down by May.  We'll see.

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mission27

mission27

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Data the last few days looks encouraging though idk if part of that is its the weekend and cases are coming in more slowly.  But todays case #s look lower than yesterdays in almost every one of the top countries (except likely USA) and daily case numbers have fallen or been stable in most places since mid/late last week.

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

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10 minutes ago, mission27 said:

https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2020-03/coronavirus-pope-positive-vatican-santa-marta-holy-see.html

This is really unfortunate.  Half the population of Vatican City is like 80 years old living in a confined space.  At least they have tremendous resources to hopefully test everyone and get this under control.

I imagine Pope Francis is under strict quarantine at this point, and limiting who has contact with him and in what capacity.  Not just out of concern for him personally, but if he were to get sick and pass, it would also be an unprecedented time for an election of a new pope.  The church politics surrounding that, and how it would be done, would be interesting to say the least.  Let's hope we don't get there.  

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