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Coronavirus (COVID-19) - 3rd try

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7 hours ago, Danger said:

Have a little optimism, brought to you by math.

Hkr20jl.png

Italy finally seems to be starting it's descent on the roller coaster. Anything below 1 is fantastic news.

Do you have a source?

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2 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Do you have a source?

I compiled numbers found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They document everything somewhere. The graph is something I made. Italy is a good basis for us to try and figure out our timescale running on the assumption that we are 2-3 weeks behind them. The most notable potential pitfall with this logic though is as @mission27 mentioned, the vastness of our geographic scale could cause this to seep into various pockets later than say individual european countries.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Danger said:

as @mission27 mentioned, the vastness of our geographic scale could cause this to seep into various pockets later than say individual european countries.

Double edged sword though, right?

if places are getting hit as others are starting to get things controlled, we can do better diverting resources (manpower, meds, equipment) rather than scrounging for them across the board.

Edited by Dome

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3 minutes ago, Dome said:

Double edged sword though, right?

if places are getting hit as others are starting to get things controlled, we can do better diverting resources (manpower, meds, equipment) rather than scrounging for them across the board.

Absolutely.

More resources can be pipelined to where they need to be, but at the same time it may also be more difficult to pin down the virus.

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56 minutes ago, Dome said:

I’m going to assume this means a less lethal mutation is highly likely and if anyone tells me anything different, they’re the new public enemy #1

Pretty sure they think its just not really gonna mutate much more, not more or less lethal

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11 minutes ago, mistakey said:

Pretty sure they think its just not really gonna mutate much more, not more or less lethal

Hello enemy 

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1 hour ago, mistakey said:

Pretty sure they think its just not really gonna mutate much more, not more or less lethal

The COVID-19

 virus does not mutate very fast. It does so eight to 10 times more slowly than the influenza virus, said Anderson, making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

It’s also not expected to spontaneously evolve into a form more deadly than it already is to humans. The SARS-CoV-2 is so good at transmitting itself between human hosts, said Andersen, it is under no evolutionary pressure to evolve

From the article I posted earlier... So it's true they don't expect it to become less lethal, but they also don't expect it to become more lethal... At least not anytime soon and by the time it did if it ever does we should have a pretty good handle on it.

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5 hours ago, candyman93 said:

It’s going to be interesting to see the worlds relationship with China when this is all over. 

It will be interesting indeed. Reparations are certainly justified based off of the delayed notice to everyone. The tough part is that they basically owe every country in the world, on an individual loss level as well.

The governing Chinese body has always been despicable. On a human level, I hope that people don’t lash out against the Chinese population in a general sense. My wife teaches Chinese kids online, ESL (VIPKid). My wife was telling me about the coronavirus long before I heard it from any media here in the United States. Her kids were telling her how they were in Quarantine, not able to go to school, etc. back by the start of the year. Everything shut down. My wife had been warning me how serious this was long before I was even able to possibly take it seriously or had heard about it elsewhere. One student’s mom this week was worried sick for my wife since she has heard how bad it is here now. She even offered to send a bunch of masks over here. 

All this to say, it’s fair to get angry at the governing body over there. This is an awful situation. It’s far more helpful though to work towards solutions and stay together in this.

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This post is not meant to be political. Please, no one take it there.

Quote

Speaking in the White House Rose Garden, the US president claimed that, if his administration keeps the death toll to 100,000, it will have done “a very good job” – a startling shift from his optimistic predictions of a few days ago when he said he hoped to restart the economy by Easter.

Source

I hope that people begin to take this more seriously. In the midwest, I have seen little to no photos/video on New York's temporary hospitals or morgue trucks. The checkpoints in Florida were briefly shown tonight. The make-shift care centers may have been briefly mentioned and then ignored. I think people will realize the seriousness once they can see it themselves. Having the president admit that limiting deaths to 100,000 would be "a very good job" should be sobering for people.

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Posted (edited)

It’s just crazy how lucky humanity has been the last 100 years. All it takes is the wrong bat interacting with the wrong pig / rat and some dude not washing his hands.

 

 

Edited by candyman93

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3 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

This post is not meant to be political. Please, no one take it there.

Source

I hope that people begin to take this more seriously. In the midwest, I have seen little to no photos/video on New York's temporary hospitals or morgue trucks. The checkpoints in Florida were briefly shown tonight. The make-shift care centers may have been briefly mentioned and then ignored. I think people will realize the seriousness once they can see it themselves. Having the president admit that limiting deaths to 100,000 would be "a very good job" should be sobering for people.

We are still coming to grips with the devastation this thing is causing in both human & economic terms. If we have to quarantine another 4-6 weeks here in Spain so be it. But at least we will have gained so much operational knowledge & experience. There is something positive at least to draw from this horrific ordeal.

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1 minute ago, candyman93 said:

It’s just crazy how lucky humanity has been the last 100 years. All it takes is the wrong bat interacting with the wrong pig / rat and some dude not washing his hands.

In the last 100 years we have transformed into a global economy with the ability to travel around the world in a matter of hours. We didn't shut down travel from asia fast enough. In hindsight that should have been our first response. 

I never thought I would see the day when manufacturing came back to America. I think there is a clear path to that now. We are going to be dealing with this for 6-12 months. By that time we will have realized we can't rely on foreign entities to build everything for us and will have millions of unemployed people. 

We really should strive to be more self sufficient. We will need to move away from the consumer economy somehow. 

Even if they 'lift' shelter in place, no one is going to go spend money anywhere until we develop a vaccine. People are going to be very hesitant for the foreseeable future. I just dont see a scenario where things open and volume immediately goes back to where it was 

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1 hour ago, N4L said:

Even if they 'lift' shelter in place, no one is going to go spend money anywhere until we develop a vaccine. People are going to be very hesitant for the foreseeable future. I just dont see a scenario where things open and volume immediately goes back to where it was 

I have sort of the opposite prediction. I don't necessarily see things picking back up to previous levels immediately, but people do have short memories. The consumer culture will return. When the government and medical community say it's safe to go out, people will quickly go back out. Some will hesitate, a lot won't. 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Dome said:

Double edged sword though, right?

if places are getting hit as others are starting to get things controlled, we can do better diverting resources (manpower, meds, equipment) rather than scrounging for them across the board.

That's the hope. I work on an ICU at a hospital in Rochester, NY. We're going to be the focal spot to combat COVID-19 in our city.

 

We as a community were a bit ahead of the curve. We started shutting down schools and having people work from home before Cuomo made it mandatory. I think we'll be in good shape, though we did have a pretty big increase of COVID+ patients over the weekend.

 

We have a good supply of ventilators and 50+ negative pressure rooms that can hold patients. If we do have good control over this virus there's no doubt we'll  be taking in NYC patients. 

Edited by WizeGuy

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