Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

Just now, mission27 said:

I'm saying literally the same thing Fauci is saying tbh

The MoL just said it first, because we were ahead of the curve, as usual

But Dr. Fauci deserves credit for catching up to our position on this

[mission27]

48 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Japan is almost untouched:

They wash their hands and wear masks and follow rules

[skywindO2]

17 minutes ago, mission27 said:

The MoL just said it first, because we were ahead of the curve, as usual

But Dr. Fauci deserves credit for catching up to our position on this

We don't need to get a head of the curve, just flatten it. 

[skywindO2]

3 hours ago, dtait93 said:

Nah fam 120

retail pleb

[mistakey]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

I think it’s somewhat important for three reasons:

1. The seasonality happens to coincide with when we should be seeing a significant reduction in cases from social distancing anyway and when we’d want to ease distancing (May to June and into summer), so while it wouldn’t stop the spread by itself, it will hopefully be part of the solution to slowing another wave over the summer (along with more limited distancing especially for at risk, testing, tracking etc.) 

You may remember this originally came up because I said I believed seasonality would have some positive effect and could be PART of what helps us climb out of this in May... exactly what Fauci is getting at... he’s also saying don’t expect it to be a panacea and magically go away, which I 100% agree with and never suggested.  But some who shall remain nameless told me I was a fool to even suggest this was likely seasonal.  Well guess what, I was right.

2. It suggests the Southern Hemisphere may be hit hard in a month or two if they don’t stop this in its tracks NOW, which could be an immensely bigger humanitarian crisis (if you think we don’t have enough ventilators try large parts of South America, Africa, you name it)

3. Also suggests we are likely to see a major Wave 2 come October or November and need to expedite development of a vaccine and treatments as much as humanly possible and be ready 

when someone says it is seasonal it implies a seasonality like the spanish flu- where it goes to nothing and then rages and roars again once we're passed the warm summer. not that "oh there may be a slight impact but it wont necessarily have a practical impact cause this virus is still one hell of a killer and the majority of the reduction in cases is due to social distancing and improved hygiene"

[dtait93]

9 minutes ago, skywindO2 said:

retail pleb

i do need to hit 60 for classic tbc release

[acowboys62]

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

Guess what?

Until we actually SEE reduced infections due to seasonality it’s simply assumptions. 

The stark reality is U.S. officials have downplayed this virus from the start. Fauci is about the only individual getting air time that’s been even remotely responsible.

We don’t know yet, what we don’t know.

Then how do you know they downplayed it if we don't know what we don't know?

[acowboys62]

29 minutes ago, mission27 said:

They wash their hands and wear masks and follow rules

Last part key. 

But a fine line between follow rules and value freedoms.  I do not really think any country has quite the "don't tread on me" mentality as the US does. 

[mission27]

4 minutes ago, mistakey said:

when someone says it is seasonal it implies a seasonality like the spanish flu- where it goes to nothing and then rages and roars again once we're passed the warm summer. not that "oh there may be a slight impact but it wont necessarily have a practical impact cause this virus is still one hell of a killer and the majority of the reduction in cases is due to social distancing and improved hygiene"

No thats actually not what that means tbh

Seasonality reduces R0.  If the R0 is 3, there's no guarantee its enough to get that below 1.  But it will absolutely slow it relative to spread in the winter / cold dryer climates.  Thats all the MoL or really anyone has said.

[acowboys62]

5 minutes ago, mistakey said:

when someone says it is seasonal it implies a seasonality like the spanish flu- where it goes to nothing and then rages and roars again once we're passed the warm summer. not that "oh there may be a slight impact but it wont necessarily have a practical impact cause this virus is still one hell of a killer and the majority of the reduction in cases is due to social distancing and improved hygiene"

Seems like you two are talking semantics...not everything has to happen in extremes. 

And I guess I am being dense here, but I still do not see how seasonality really would help the US.  NY and NJ won't truly be warm until closer to Mid/Late June whereas Florida will be warm in a month or so.  So how would seasonality in the states really help? 

[mistakey]

Just now, acowboys62 said:

Seems like you two are talking semantics...not everything has to happen in extremes. 

And I guess I am being dense here, but I still do not see how seasonality really would help the US.  NY and NJ won't truly be warm until closer to Mid/Late June whereas Florida will be warm in a month or so.  So how would seasonality in the states really help? 

100% percent arguing semantics. @mission27 was exceedingly rosy in the beginning and stated that seasonality is one of the reasons why he was rosy

[mission27]

Also @mistakey your post seems to imply that we didn't practice social distancing and hygiene in response to the Spanish Flu

We absolutely did 

It was a combination of social distancing policies, hygiene, seasonality, and local immunity in some communities that ended the first and second waves and it was primarily because of seasonality that it started to spread like wildfire again the next two winters

Our advantage is we are better position to take advantage of the likely lul between June - September to get ready and hopefully have treatments and / or vaccines for the next wave

[mission27]

Just now, mistakey said:

100% percent arguing semantics. @mission27 was exceedingly rosy in the beginning and stated that seasonality is one of the reasons why he was rosy

The MoL's position has not changed whatsoever.

This will peak sometime in April and be getting much better in May.  By late May or early June I expect new case numbers to be essentially nothing. 

[mistakey]

alright u win, i honestly cant care about arguing with you about this anymore.  it literally gains me nothing

last time i did this with someone turns out he was an anti vaxxer
 

 

[acowboys62]

I have been playing with some numbers just to get a sense of this thing...and please, if this is a stupid way to look at it let me know. But what I am trying to understand is why is it that looking at this virus versus the entire US population seems so frowned upon?  My caveat here is I am taking this serious, my wife is an infectious disease nurse dealing with this daily, my step father, mother and father are all high risk category so I am not trying to down play it, just understand the rationale. 

Is the issue with looking at this thing vs the entire populate not correct because of how low the total # of tests still are?  Is it more because total numbers be dammed and just the pure potential is devastating (ie a 2.4% death rate vs the entire population)?  Just trying to understand and there are clearly much smarter people in this topic than myself. 

As of 4/2:

Positives: 239,000 (0.07% of US pop.)

Negatives: 1,028,649 (0.31% of US pop.)

Hospitalized: 32,649 (0.01% of US pop., 13.7% of positives)

Deaths: 5,784 (0.002% of US pop., 2.4% of positives)

Total Tests: 1,276,658 (0.38% of US pop.)