Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, mission27 said:

Well it’s been worth a lot of $$$ for at least one of the MoL that I can tell you

Yeah I still want a cut of that.

[mission27]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Yeah I still want a cut of that.

I don’t see why tbh, MoL was on this bandwagon way before anyone else.  We were buying shares left and right by the end of January.

Ill gladly buy you a Yankees CC jersey tho

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, mission27 said:

I don’t see why tbh, MoL was on this bandwagon way before anyone else.  We were buying shares left and right by the end of January.

Ill gladly buy you a Yankees CC jersey tho

tbh I'd wear it. Love CC.

[Blahstoise]

UK added 4,000+ Care Home deaths today and had changed it's daily recording of deaths to include all settings and not just hospitals.

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

This should be the headline tbh.

Fauci is telling US doctors that people with COVID-19 need to be getting remdesivir starting now. This isn't approval of an NDA, but to use a football metaphor, remdisivir was just named as the interim head coach.

Right patient, right dose, right time.
This is very good news, and I'll offer some context. There are many trials ongoing with Remdesivir and they are each designed with different goals in mind and for different patient populations. That's part of why not all of them have a control group. The large phase 3 with randomized doses and placebo control doesn't read out till next April, but these other studies show enough promise to roll this out - to a very specific population of patients. They will add more patient types later as the results of additional trials come in. ( age, obesity, lung diseases, kidney, heart, liver problems, disease stage etc)

The mechanism of action for remdesivir is to interrupt the replication of the virus once it has infected your cells. It does not appear to have a benefit as a prophylactic, but it does as a treatment. The early trials that just completed were for mild or moderate cases, but did not include patients on a vent. The vent-patient studies are underway but those results aren't out yet. Its possible that once you go over the cliff, stopping the virus from replicating is too late in the disease progression to show efficacy. That one is still TBD and with critical patients, its very difficult to draw meaningful conclusions

It appears there is a sweet spot for remdesivir therapy: shortly after infection and before you need a vent.
If MDs can keep em off the vent, that's a big win
It needs to be dosed in a hospital setting so that's less than ideal, but its still a leap forward and very good news on the therapeutic front

Edited April 29, 2020 by Shanedorf

[Rrrrrrrams]

3 hours ago, mission27 said:

Perhaps, but that wouldn't explain why colder climates like NYC, Canada, London, Russia, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe were hit later than warmer climates like Italy, Spain, Washington State, and parts of Asia.  Its not really explainable by travel patterns.  It could be a coincidence but there is circumstantial evidence IMO that the disease is thriving between 35-50 F and spreads more slowly in warmer or much colder environments

Was reading last night about an Israeli epidemiologist who compared these outbreaks and his position is that the outbreaks all tend to eb and flow within ~70 days regardless of lockdown measures (although the total amount of cases at any given time may be higher without a lockdown, the timeline of peak and downswing is similar no matter what you do).  He wasnt sure why although he did mention seasonality as a potential factor along with herd immunity within clusters.  Temperate climates go through ~2 months in the late winter where temperatures are in this ideal range for spread and you can see this disease hitting large cities across the northern hemisphere in a clean wave as each of these cities went through that band of temperatures 

ever been to northern italy?
and i don't think germany is a warmer climate like the uk.

[Blahstoise]

I'd also say the weather in April in the UK has been 60F+ throughout - although the majority of the transmission would have taken place in Jan-March when it was colder

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, Rrrrrrrams said:

ever been to northern italy?

Many times actually, what's your point?

Here's the chart with the Milan temps vs. Italy's daily case count... 

Rome was above the 50 degrees daily average temperature for much of February and March and Lombardy has 30x as many deaths as Lazio.  Milan was right in the sweet spot throughout the entire crucial period. 

[mission27]

1 minute ago, Blahstoise said:

I'd also say the weather in April in the UK has been 60F+ throughout - although the majority of the transmission would have taken place in Jan-March when it was colder

So a couple things:

- The chart is based on average daily temps not highs, i.e. based on average of high and low for the day.  London has been in the high 40s to low 50s by that measure which is at the top to above the window but not as far above as Wuhan or Milan have been over the past month.  Its not binary, if London was consistently in the 70s like those other places have been it would probably have a bigger effect

- To your point, most of the rapid growth was in March and has slowed since early April - likely a result of social distancing + seasonality imo - its harder to see in the new case numbers because testing is still so low in the UK that you'll like continue to see high or even growing new case counts even as the disease slows down 

[Blahstoise]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

So a couple things:

- The chart is based on average daily temps not highs, i.e. based on average of high and low for the day.  London has been in the high 40s to low 50s by that measure which is at the top to above the window but not as far above as Wuhan or Milan have been over the past month.  Its not binary, if London was consistently in the 70s like those other places have been it would probably have a bigger effect

- To your point, most of the rapid growth was in March and has slowed since early April - likely a result of social distancing + seasonality imo - its harder to see in the new case numbers because testing is still so low in the UK that you'll like continue to see high or even growing new case counts even as the disease slows down 

I'm in the North of the country and we've definitely been hitting 60F consistently in April, but transmission is down to R0 0.7ish and our death peak was April 8th so infection peak likely late Match.

Testing wise we are expanding now, 50k tests today, aim is for 100k by Thursday and testing has opened up to lots more people. Infection rates in hospitals are dropping already but key workers are testing positive to keep the rate stable.

We're a while behind Italy and Spain and we'll have the worst death toll in Europe - especially now we are counting care homes.

[mission27]

4/29/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"It seems like one of those nights
We ditch the whole scene
And end up dreamin'
Instead of sleeping"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL is smug about remdesivir 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

The Tier 1 countries are walking on sunshine in a major way.  Disclaimer: none of the Bateman gifs have been subject to academic pier review.

Hong Kong: 0.1 (if Hong Kong does not report a new case tomorrow, it will be the fifth straight day without a new case, and their MoL will fall to a perfect 0.0, which would really be something)

South Korea: 0.5

Australia: 1.0

China: 1.2 (little uptick but probably nothing to be worried about)

Czech Republic: 1.3

Netherlands: 1.4 (all time low for the Dutch)

Portugal: 1.6 (and Portugal too)

Israel: 1.8 (Israel drops below 2 for the first time)

France: 1.9

Italy: 2.0 (another great day, Italy will need to consistently drop below 2k cases per day to stay  2 or below)

Switzerland: 2.4

Austria: 2.5 

Belgium: 2.6 (pretty crazy to see them up in Tier 1 now, after all they've been through, hopefully Spain is next and then the US!)

Germany: 3.1 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

The message of this Bateman gif is that, while Tier 2 countries can always do better, most of these countries (like Bateman) are actually in a very attractive and enviable position 

Turkey: 3.1

Japan: 3.2

Philippines: 3.4

UK: 3.5

USA: 3.6 (another all-time low and the state by state numbers look even better)

Sweden: 3.7 (Sweden is probably quite smug)

Spain: 3.9 (still hanging in the high 3s, but I think they'll start to drop soon)

Global: 4.0 (global MoL at their best level yet)

Ireland: 5.2

Canada: 5.9 (Canada looking damn good)

Singapore: 6.4 (#seasonality for #singapore)

Iran: 6.8* (a tick up, MoL dont buy these numbers)

Denmark: 7.0 

India: 9.5

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Tier 3 countries may very well be on the verge of a lethal frenzy, but if they may also be placated by securing the right table at Dorsia or proper social distancing which could push them into Tier 2

Russia: 9.9 (could move up to Tier 2 soon, but we'll keep 'em here for now, smugly) 

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

There's really not much positive to say here tbh, just read the gif

Mexico: 22.7 

Brazil: 24.3 (ya boom city)

USA State Level MoLs

The good states continue to do reasonably well

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[vikesfan89]

7 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I'm a bit behind on this thread, so I am not sure if it was posted, but the UN is expecting 130 million people to be facing starvation by the end of the year- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

As long as there are less Covid-19 deaths

[rob_shadows]

25 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

As long as there are less Covid-19 deaths

I could see why it could be an issue for counties that are heavily dependant on imports for their food supply but for the top food producing countries like the U.S, China, India, The Netherlands, Italy, France, Spain, Russia, etc... There is no excuse for there to be any food shortages. It shouldn't be difficult at all to keep agriculture going safely. 

[vikesfan89]

4 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

I could see why it could be an issue for counties that are heavily dependant on imports for their food supply but for the top food producing countries like the U.S, China, India, The Netherlands, Italy, France, Spain, Russia, etc... There is no excuse for there to be any food shortages. It shouldn't be difficult at all to keep agriculture going safely. 

Agriculture won't be the problem but if plants keep shutting down Or if trucks can't stay on the road for whatever reason we might have an issue.

Also doesn't the US import most of it's fruits and vegetables?

[Xenos]

On April 27, 2020 at 10:03 PM, N4L said:

New Zealand is heaven 

 

Abundance of food production (aka cheap, healthy, delicious food)

amazing weather

incredible nature/geology/beaches 

Super friendly people with enough accent to be funny but not too much so you cant understand them

literally no natural predators of any kind. Literally nothing that can kill you (other than humans). No mountain lions, poisonous insects/snakes etc etc

 

I was lucky enough to go there in November 2019. I hear there are people stuck there right now. those poor souls.  

Plus you know, it's also where the hobbits live