Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

4/30/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"I don't wanna live forever, 'cause I know I'll be living in vain"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL is smug about Singapore still and 1 month since the MoLs began, what a month its been

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

The Tier 1 countries are walking on sunshine in a major way.  Disclaimer: none of the Bateman gifs have been subject to academic pier review.

Hong Kong: 0.0 (a perfect score! Hong Kong has not reported a new case in the past 5 days which earns it this incredible achievement, never before recorded in the history of the MoLs!!!!!!!)

South Korea: 0.5

Australia: 0.9 (back below 1.0, shady we are pulling for ya)

China: 1.1 (back on the way down?)

Czech Republic: 1.4

Netherlands: 1.3 (all time best score for Netherlands)

Israel: 1.5 (Israel numbers continue to impress the MoL)

Portugal: 1.6 

France: 1.8

Italy: 1.9 (Italy drops below 2, WOW!!!)

Belgium: 2.3 (another all-time low for Belgium which is great for them)

Switzerland: 2.3

Austria: 2.4

Japan: 2.5 (Japan back in tier 1 for the first time since the imported cases started to balloon a little over a month ago)

Germany: 3.2 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

The message of this Bateman gif is that, while Tier 2 countries can always do better, most of these countries (like Bateman) are actually in a very attractive and enviable position 

Turkey: 3.1

USA: 3.4 (best score yet for the USA, wow, very inspiring, thanks MoL!) 

Spain: 3.6 (all-time low for Spain, getting close to tier 1 status for our friends)

UK: 3.7

Sweden: 3.9

Philippines: 4.0 (slight uptick the last couple of days look like weekly fluctuations) 

Global: 3.8 (the average of the MoLs dips below 4 for the first time)

Ireland: 5.0

Canada: 6.0 (not a great number of Canada today, but holding steady)

Singapore: 6.0 (#seasonality for #singapore makes MoL smug af)

Denmark: 6.0

Iran: 6.9* (a tick up, MoL dont buy these numbers)

India: 8.8

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Tier 3 countries may very well be on the verge of a lethal frenzy, but if they may also be placated by securing the right table at Dorsia or proper social distancing which could push them into Tier 2

Russia: 9.4 (getting close to tier 2 but absolute numbers are still atrocious and just hit their highest daily number) 

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

There's really not much positive to say here tbh, just read the gif

Brazil: 20.1 (slowing?)

Mexico: 21.9

USA State Level MoLs

Ticked up a bit but numbers still look ok.  More in line with the country by country numbers now.  Over 1m cases.

A month of MoLs

Today is the one month anniversary of the first MoLs posted on March 30th, 2020

While we've had our ups and downs with the haters and the stone cold losers we thought we'd give everyone a peak at how far we've come in the past month. Imagine where we could be a month from now at the end of May!

 

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[mission27]

12 hours ago, mission27 said:

To everyone worried about a 'rise' in deaths over the past couple of days

There are predictable waves in weekly data, which likely has to do with when and how various state and local authorities authorize a death as being COVID related and then update their death numbers

The two ways you could look at this are:

- Compare deaths to what deaths have been same week day the last couple of weeks

- Look at 7 day trailing average

By both metrics, we are on the downswing still.  Yesterday was slightly higher than last Wednesday but significantly below Wednesday the 15th: 

Also remember that deaths are a lagging indicator. So if we peaked in deaths about 1-2 weeks ago, the peak in cases was probably closer to early April

EDIT: Based on this pattern we should expect the number may be slightly lower today although still potentially above 2k.  If we stay at roughly 10% below prior week that puts us at 2100.  My guess is it comes in a little lower based on where we stand so far.

Update US deaths continue to be on a downward trajectory as of Thursday. My math was a little off, we hit 2200 today which was 10.7 % below a week ago and lower than either of the last two Wednesdays.  As a result the trailing 7 day average ticked down yet again.

Last Friday was quite low (sub-2000).  We could see that again but I think a more realistic estimate would be around 2k or a bit higher.  I think this weekend into Monday we could see deaths start to dip into the low 1000s though

Edited May 1, 2020 by mission27

[mission27]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/04/29/coronavirus-my-temp-checks-enter-cafes-hong-kong-may-be-u-s-future-column/3033446001/

Pretty cool

I look forward to walking into a starbucks and getting a temp check in a few weeks 

LFG!

[mission27]

California shutting down beaches is dumb af

The chances of getting COVID outside, on a beach, when its 85 degrees outside are basically zero.  This disease spreads in confined spaces and more quickly at more moderate temperatures. 

Meanwhile the social and public health benefits of allowing people to go to the beach when its hot out are real

You say you are weeks away from relaxing other restrictions on things like retail and restaurants, but now is the time to shut down outdoor spaces where risk of transmission is near zero?

Just another example of Newsom tripping over himself to appear to be the toughest on corona, rather than following a more balanced science based approach that weighs risk and reward 

@TLO

[TLO]

Just now, mission27 said:

California shutting down beaches is dumb af

The chances of getting COVID outside, on a beach, when its 85 degrees outside are basically zero.  This disease spreads in confined spaces and more quickly at more moderate temperatures. 

Meanwhile the social and public health benefits of allowing people to go to the beach when its hot out are real

You say you are weeks away from relaxing other restrictions on things like retail and restaurants, but now is the time to shut down outdoor spaces where risk of transmission is near zero?

Just another example of Newsom tripping over himself to appear to be the toughest on corona, rather than following a more balanced science based approach that weighs risk and reward 

@TLO

On the flip side I think the people bitching about not being able to go to the beach when it’s 75 outside are petulant children tbh

[mission27]

Just now, TLO said:

On the flip side I think the people bitching about not being able to go to the beach when it’s 75 outside are petulant children tbh

Perhaps, but if he comes for the beaches today, he'll come for the summit tomorrow 

 

[mission27]

@mbtl

[naptownskinsfan]

4 hours ago, Tyty said:

Bummed. A manager that was hired at my work over a year ago became one of my best friends and she was let go today after saying she’s too scared to work retail at work while everything is shut down. She’s one of the most passionate and hard working managers we’ve had at work so it’s all ****ed up. It’s a truly stupid reason to fire someone. 

Not going to lie, when the mall reopens, I have a choice to make.  We're in the food court, open air and right by one of the busiest entrances to the mall.  As well as another escalator entrance, one more entrance on the far side, as well as an anchor store entrance.  We serve over 1,000 people per day, so that is in your face interaction throughout the day, as well as a couple thousand walking by throughout the day.  I'm fine going back now to help reopen and keep things minimally operational (doing mobile orders and curbsides) but with my grandmother being 92, and my mom and step dad in their early 70's, this is going to be a really tough decision for me.  I love the company I work for and love my boss, and I'd even consider a drop down in position to go to one of the other locations (right now I run the store that I'm at, along with another person directly under me who could take over) but not sure how much pay I would lose in that scenario.  

EDIT: I didn't want to take away from Tyty's post.  It sucks that businesses are going to lose good people across the board.  But people really have a choice to make in some sectors.  I just heard my store lost my office manager.  She was about six months in, and won't be returning.  She has Lupus, and she probably won't be able to work until there is a vaccine or a credible cure for this.  A lot of people in high traffic atmospheres are really going to have to do some soul-searching for this.  I know I am.  

[N4L]

27 minutes ago, mission27 said:

California shutting down beaches is dumb af

The chances of getting COVID outside, on a beach, when its 85 degrees outside are basically zero.  This disease spreads in confined spaces and more quickly at more moderate temperatures. 

Meanwhile the social and public health benefits of allowing people to go to the beach when its hot out are real

You say you are weeks away from relaxing other restrictions on things like retail and restaurants, but now is the time to shut down outdoor spaces where risk of transmission is near zero?

Just another example of Newsom tripping over himself to appear to be the toughest on corona, rather than following a more balanced science based approach that weighs risk and reward 

@TLO

he is only shutting down the beaches in orange county

I think its grandstanding on his part, but the response was necessary to get people's attention. The picture went viral, he had to respond

oc has plenty of beach... for the people that actually live there. Gavin doesn't want all of LA county to go to the beaches in oc. no response would have been open season

If you can walk/ride etc to the beach and you can maintain distance, then you should have every right to be at the beach if you are willing to accept the measured risk. The problem is that there is a tipping point where there are too many people and some sort of contact becomes inevitable. LA has done itself no favors so far. (I always count anything part of the LA basin as LA. people from oc always hate it when I say that - yall are one metropolitan area, get over it. its like SF vs the Bay area)

I just think about all of the cowboy cops down there who are going to think they are 'saving lives' by handing out $500+ tickets …. pigs

[naptownskinsfan]

49 minutes ago, mission27 said:

California shutting down beaches is dumb af

The chances of getting COVID outside, on a beach, when its 85 degrees outside are basically zero.  This disease spreads in confined spaces and more quickly at more moderate temperatures. 

Meanwhile the social and public health benefits of allowing people to go to the beach when its hot out are real

You say you are weeks away from relaxing other restrictions on things like retail and restaurants, but now is the time to shut down outdoor spaces where risk of transmission is near zero?

Just another example of Newsom tripping over himself to appear to be the toughest on corona, rather than following a more balanced science based approach that weighs risk and reward 

@TLO

It was stupid to close everything down as suddenly as everyone did, and not give a chance to have everyone try their hand at implementing social distancing and enhanced cleaning/sanitization.  

However, given the fact that a couple meat packing plants want to close, because they ignored all of that, leads me to believe that a good amount of places probably still aren't taking those things seriously, despite communication to the contrary, it might have been the best one.  

I'm really concerned about the UN story about an additional 150 million people facing famine-level hunger by the end of the year.  Sure, a lot of that will be in third world countries, where they rely on a lot of US aid, as well as other countries.  But on the home front, what will that look like?  Food banks are depleted across the board, in worse ways than they were during the last recession.  When things like this happen, the people with disposable income to donate to food banks/foreign aid groups stop doing that, and things become much harder for them to feed the people who needed the products before the problem started.  Then they have to feed the people who need help because of the problem.  

Also have to say that a lot of Marylanders right now would compare Hogan to Newsome.  A lot of people who were his stalwart supporters on the Republican side want nothing to do with him right now, and feel he's using this as a platform for 2024.  I think he's being too overly cautious right now, but a lot of other states are in that same boat too.  

[mission27]

Just now, N4L said:

I think its grandstanding on his part, but the response was necessary to get people's attention. The picture went viral, he had to respond

Thats my issue. He is grandstanding and 'punishing' people for having the audacity to try to go outside and enjoy themselves, because he wants to look like the most aggressive on this

There is no rational reason to shut the beaches. The risk of getting sick outside, on a beach, when it is sunny and 85 degrees is very low.  The risk of massive numbers of infections from people going to the beach that would overwhelm the hospitals is literally zero unless all of these people went and coughed into each others mouths on purpose

If a region that has one of the lowest per capita rates of cases in the entire world can't allow people to go the beach, what hope does any part of the world have of opening anything? Its a crazy standard. Its going to backfire, people will go ballistic, and he is going to lose the will of the people to follow these guidelines. Major overstep imo

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

However, given the fact that a couple meat packing plants want to close, because they ignored all of that, leads me to believe that a good amount of places probably still aren't taking those things seriously, despite communication to the contrary, it might have been the best one.  

 

The meat packing plants are cramped indoor spaces with dozens or hundreds of employees that are kept at artificially low temperatures (basically the exact opposite of a beach during a heat wave)

Its definitely a real issue, but its also not surprising at all that these places would be hotbeds for spread, even in communities that would otherwise not have a particularly bad outbreak

[N4L]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

Thats my issue. He is grandstanding and 'punishing' people for having the audacity to try to go outside and enjoy themselves, because he wants to look like the most aggressive on this

There is no rational reason to shut the beaches. The risk of getting sick outside, on a beach, when it is sunny and 85 degrees is very low.  The risk of massive numbers of infections from people going to the beach that would overwhelm the hospitals is literally zero unless all of these people went and coughed into each others mouths on purpose

If a region that has one of the lowest per capita rates of cases in the entire world can't allow people to go the beach, what hope does any part of the world have of opening anything? Its a crazy standard. Its going to backfire, people will go ballistic, and he is going to lose the will of the people to follow these guidelines. Major overstep imo

these are all points I made earlier in the day when I thought that it was all CA beaches LOL

I am not saying I agree, just why he is doing what he is doing (other than the obvious play of running for president in 4 years)

also, OC is very red, the people that live there probably don't like Gavin to begin with

 

People should be able to take measured risk. The curve has flattened. 

[mission27]

5 minutes ago, N4L said:

these are all points I made earlier in the day when I thought that it was all CA beaches LOL

I am not saying I agree, just why he is doing what he is doing (other than the obvious play of running for president in 4 years)

also, OC is very red, the people that live there probably don't like Gavin to begin with

 

People should be able to take measured risk. The curve has flattened. 

Yep

Well hes already getting sued by the county and Huntington Beach I believe. This is gonna be ugly 

Edit: and OC sheriff says they wont even enforce the ban lol

There is no active hot spot in California. There is no reason California should be behind the entire rest of the world in opening up and actually actively adding restrictions. Lombardy, Italy is re-opening and yet California's governor is telling people they wont be able to get a haircut for months or play baseball games sans fans until 2021. He's off the deep end

Edited May 1, 2020 by mission27

[N4L]

9 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Yep

Well hes already getting sued by the county and Huntington Beach I believe. This is gonna be ugly 

Edit: and OC sheriff says they wont even enforce the ban lol

There is no active hot spot in California. There is no reason California should be behind the entire rest of the world in opening up and actually actively adding restrictions. Lombardy, Italy is re-opening and yet California's governor is telling people they wont be able to get a haircut for months or play baseball games sans fans until 2021. He's off the deep end

The ironic part is that Gavin sued the city of Laguna because they were not allowing affordable housing in their city. I don't remember the outcome of it but I was pretty ticked because then some cities up and down the state felt immense pressure to approve some truly horrible developments. City officials who voted had the easy "dont blame us, the state could sue us!" excuse to make 

Laguna is a small beach town in the hills with lots of wealthy people. Yes there needs to be affordable housing but there are plenty of other places that can happen. I don't blame Laguna for standing their ground. Go build affordable housing inland ... Irving or Costa Mesa even. 

Tbh outside of the lawsuit, this could be the best outcome for everyone. Gavin's response will keep some people indoors, which will help on some scale. It's people driving from far away they don't want. Low risk of infection but there is a risk (parking lots, public bathrooms, gas stations etc etc) City officials and cops won't enforce anything, so the people who actually go will be fine. 

Less people on the beach but some people on the beach is actually a good middle ground. Not tens of thousands of people driving from Riverside or wherever.