Glen Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 13 hours ago, mistakey said: When people in this thread said wed never hit the 60k death projections that our govt said wed hit by august yet we hit them last week “Yeah but original projections were 2 million so it’s fine” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 13 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said: i dont know who those people were, but werent we told hundrends of thousands of people would die? (The answer is yes). Your post is weird tbh. Like are you arguing it isnt significantly less deadly than we were told it was? Unfortunately the death toll is continually rising. And will in fact continue to rise. Even once we hit 60k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 5/1/2020 MoL Scores: Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities. The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review. The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community. These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind. Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers. The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time. Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance. We will defeat this virus. "I'm sitting eyes wide open and I got one thing stuck in my mindWondering if I dodged a bullet or just lost the love of my life" - Taylor Swift Today the MoL continues to be smug about Singapore and timelines as the world burns Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures The Tier 1 countries are walking on sunshine in a major way. Disclaimer: none of the Bateman gifs have been subject to academic pier review. How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix. Hong Kong: 0.2 (Hong Kong reported new cases for the first time in nearly a week, so they lose their perfect score, but still one of the best scores we've seen) South Korea: 0.5 Australia: 1.0 Netherlands: 1.2 (all time best score for Netherlands) China: 1.2 Portugal: 1.4 Czech Republic: 1.4 Israel: 1.5 (no Passover bump) France: 1.7 Italy: 1.8 (all time low!) Belgium: 2.1 (and Belgium too, threatening to crack the 2 mark, nice job) Switzerland: 2.3 Austria: 2.4 Japan: 2.5 (Japan back in tier 1 for the first time since the imported cases started to balloon a little over a month ago) Germany: 3.2 Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1 The message of this Bateman gif is that, while Tier 2 countries can always do better, most of these countries (like Bateman) are actually in a very attractive and enviable position Turkey: 3.1 USA: 3.5 (slight uptick today and likely will be tomorrow, early next week will tell us if we can hit tier 1 in the near future, stay tuned) Sweden: 3.7 Philippines: 3.8 (another drop today, outstanding) UK: 3.8 Spain: 3.9 Global: 4.0 (slight uptick driven by US and other places) Ireland: 5.2 Singapore: 5.5 (#seasonality for #singapore makes MoL smug af) Canada: 6.0 (holding steady, they've gotta start improving soon or MoL will be quite steamed) Denmark: 6.3 Iran: 6.8* (why dont they just do a fatwah on coronavirus) India: 9.1 Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases Tier 3 countries may very well be on the verge of a lethal frenzy, but if they may also be placated by securing the right table at Dorsia or proper social distancing which could push them into Tier 2 Russia: 9.1 (gonna let them stay here a while, russia) Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down) There's really not much positive to say here tbh, just read the gif Brazil: 20.6 Mexico: 20.0 USA State Level MoLs A few flea places have seen a bit of an uptick in cases which is not surprising. The places the MoL cares about are doing just fine. Where are Countries in The Timeline™? As we reach over a month of MoLs its time to start looking back and taking some learnings from our vast intelligence. One such learning would be that the MoL was 100% right about the timeline of coronavirus from day 1. Below is a comparison of the various timelines for the various places and comparison to Italy. The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing @TLO The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Update on the deaths, #s continue to drop, remember we are not seeing a rise... this is normal weekly fluctuations in cases and deaths that we've seen all along... things continue to slowly, steadily get better in the US. We and Canada are still a bit behind continental Europe in seeing the aggressive downward slope in part because of increased testing but we're getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 hour ago, acowboys62 said: This post was asinine. You sound scared, which is ok, but telling people what they need to do or have is not going to get anyone to think you are posting anything of relevance. Whats asinine about a little perspective? Because those are bonafide indisputible facts. washington is saying now that they hope only 100k die. Since theyve been exceedingly optimistic on everything so far coronavirus related, lets see if theyre right this time hint: they wont be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 For the record im not scared- im privileged and acknowledge this. My job is secure and i have food and likely have antibodies to the disease since my wife does. My symptoms were mild, other than a wild out of nowhere full body hives. It just hit me this week tho that our lives wont go back to normal until we get vaccinated Or herd immunity, unless theres some more therapeutics in the pipeline. Hopefully oxford produces one for early usage in sept so we can start getting back to normal next year. There will be states that reopen but lots will die. https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5830265/1918-flu-reopening-coronavirus/%3Famp%3Dtrue. Kinda wild but history def repeats itself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, mistakey said: Kinda wild but history def repeats itself Yeah, I definitely plan to isolate for two weeks after things re-open. Which is easy since I live alone and I’m still furloughed until June at the minimum. I’ll re-evaluate then. I’m the meantime, I’m just going to enjoy some hobbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Malfatron said: whats the cutoff for "children" Once you move out of your parents basement and pay your own bills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, mistakey said: There will be states that reopen but lots will die. Every state will re-open before there is a vaccine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Malfatron said: whats the cutoff for "children" Out of context, this is a questionable post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, mistakey said: Whats asinine about a little perspective? Because those are bonafide indisputible facts. washington is saying now that they hope only 100k die. Since theyve been exceedingly optimistic on everything so far coronavirus related, lets see if theyre right this time hint: they wont be The math is pretty simple The CFR is somewhere around 0.1-0.5 most likely Herd immunity comes somewhere between 180 million and 250 million Americans Thats somewhere between 200k to 1.25 million deaths if we dont get a vaccine before reaching herd immunity. The estimates of 60k were for this wave only and were always very optimistic My best guess probably 100k this wave, potentially another 100k in the winter, and hopefully we are vaccinated by 2021 and that's the extent of it. But could be worse Not to sound heartless but thank god most of these deaths are very elderly people. The long term impact of 200k young people dying would be much greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, mission27 said: Every state will re-open before there is a vaccine This i do not disagree with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16DbPhF9OD0MHHtCR12of6yUcfiRzP_-XGkynEbnipds/htmlview?usp=sharing# seems like theres a bunch of treatment studies goin on out there- hopefully 1 of the 200 works to significantly reduce deaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 (edited) Interesting chart. US deaths from infectious disease per capita since 1900. That big spike is 1918 from Spanish Flu and the slight uptick in the 80s and 90s is HIV / AIDS. Even in a worst case scenario if the entire impact of the pandemic hit in 2020, we'd probably be somewhere between 100-400 deaths per 100,000 or 0.1% to 0.4% of the population. Which would be the worst year in 70-100 years, but on the flip side, would've been just another year by the standards of our great grandparents. Gotta appreciate modern medicine tbh. Edited May 2, 2020 by mission27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Awesome work from Nature, they did a great job laying out the different vaccine strategies being deployed https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01221-y?utm_source=pocket-newtab The race for coronavirus vaccines: a graphical guideEight ways in which scientists hope to provide immunity to SARS-CoV-2 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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