Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

I can tell you as a young healthy person, I'd rather be in Sweden right now, but if I was at risk it would be a different story.

[mistakey]

2 hours ago, theJ said:

I don't think it will be as bad this time around. Masks are more common place, and people are being more careful about who they have close contact with and washing hands, etc. Don't know if this is nationwide, but my Menards is requiring a mask to enter the store. This will become more common. 

Basically what I'm saying is, opening things up will lead to more cases. But not at the exponential rate we saw previously. I don't see a reason to panic about things opening up, and frankly the more I've gone out, the more comfortable I am because of how cautious I see other people being. 

People are gonna stop wearing masks

[mistakey]

11 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I can tell you as a young healthy person, I'd rather be in Sweden right now, but if I was at risk it would be a different story.

Id also rather be in sweden but thats cause gothenburg is metal capital of the world

[mission27]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/health/coronavirus-remdesivir.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Cool article on remdesivir 

@seriously27 see below re: the known mechanism for much slower mutation of coronaviruses 

Quote

Coronaviruses hold much more RNA than scientists once theorized a virus could. Many viruses that cause epidemics rely on this type of genetic material, and almost all mutate constantly. That is why flu viruses change from year to year.

Yet coronaviruses did not change much — their mutation rate is about one-twentieth the rate of other RNA viruses.

In 2007, Dr. Denison discovered that coronaviruses have a powerful “proofreading” system. If an error occurs in copying RNA as the coronavirus replicates, it corrects the error. In lab experiments, coronaviruses that mutated were weaker, outcompeted by those without mutations.

Dr. Denison and other experts wondered if it might be possible to trick the virus with a drug that dodged the proofreading system and blocked the virus’s growing RNA chain, making it prematurely terminate.

Talking about this problem with another scientist at a meeting, Dr. Denison learned that Gilead Sciences had dozens of drugs that might do the trick. “All of these compounds had been shelved for one reason or another,” Dr. Denison said.

Most worked in lab tests to shut down coronaviruses, he found — some better than others. One of the best was GS-5734, now known as remdesivir. “I like to call it the Terminator,” Dr. Denison said.

 

 

[mission27]

20 minutes ago, mistakey said:

2 hours ago, theJ said:

I don't think it will be as bad this time around. Masks are more common place, and people are being more careful about who they have close contact with and washing hands, etc. Don't know if this is nationwide, but my Menards is requiring a mask to enter the store. This will become more common. 

Basically what I'm saying is, opening things up will lead to more cases. But not at the exponential rate we saw previously. I don't see a reason to panic about things opening up, and frankly the more I've gone out, the more comfortable I am because of how cautious I see other people being. 

People are gonna stop wearing masks

I think you're going to see a lot of mask wearing in big international cities, potentially even for a while after this virus is gone tbh

SARS killed a tiny fraction as many people in Asia and people were still wearing masks there pre-COVID almost two decades later

Obvi some people wont wear masks in middle of nowhere Nebraska but who cares. All the spread in those areas is pretty much nursing homes, meat packing plants, and stuff like that. This is a virus that spreads with large numbers of people in close proximity and tbh who even cares about Nebraska.  If Nebraskans come to NYC and don't wear a mask then our fuhrer De Blassio will be sure to arrest them

[TLO]

I’m concerned that people are going to be too dumb to follow more relaxed distancing measures once things begin to open. Could definitely see wave 2 being worse than it should be because of this. 

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, TLO said:

I’m concerned that people are going to be too dumb to follow more relaxed distancing measures once things begin to open. Could definitely see wave 2 being worse than it should be because of this. 

I cant wait to see Wuhan Aussie wearing a mask when our favorite spot opens back up

[WizeGuy]

12 minutes ago, mission27 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/health/coronavirus-remdesivir.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Cool article on remdesivir 

@seriously27 see below re: the known mechanism for much slower mutation of coronaviruses 

 

It's going to be interesting to see how this treatment evovles. Once studies and doctors provide more knowledge on usage, then perhaps we can find that 'sweet spot' during infection to stop this virus from progressing to fatal levels. 

 

There are a lot of skeptics who think the government is FDA approving Remsidivir to stroke Gileads stock, but a lot of scientists and MDs believe there's some potential here.

Edited May 2, 2020 by WizeGuy

[naptownskinsfan]

6 hours ago, N4L said:

The problem is you are insinuating that we never should have shut down at all. That's simply not true. The fact that food supply chains are even being talked about like this rather than "we are already at 50 million cases" is what is important here

I believe food will be available to those that need it in the us. I can't speak to third world countries, that's unfortunate but somewhat unavoidable. 

We took the only steps we could. We had no choice but to shut down, and shut down fast. 

The problem with your logic is that it is circular. It relies on the premise that the virus didn't spread exponentially, and that because it didn't, we could have taken half measures and been better off today than we are right now. That's simply false. Anything less than the appropriate response (shut down immediately) would have put us in a very bad spot. 

I feel like this is what the "it's not that bad" crowd doesn't seem to grasp. It's not that bad because we flattened the curve. Now that we have flattened the curve and understand more about the virus, we are able to take measured risks with the knowledge that we may have to go back to square one at a moment's notice. 

I don't know where you are getting the 'we shouldn't have shut down at all" out of this.  I've said here before that I thought we could've allowed more places to attempt to remain open with social distancing and sanitization guidelines, but it's not worth arguing what's behind us.  Most of the governors decided to shut it all down, and at the time I agreed with it and still think it's the right call.  Hindsight says the above statement, but again, we can't go back, only forward. 

I care about all people, not just in the US.  150 million people potentially dying is also absurd, and something needs to be done about that too.  Now we are at the point where we can't rush reopening, but as has also been discussed here, there are some places who can reopen that are lagging behind.  I also see the absurd numbers and cases coming out of assisted living/nursing care facilities and think we can actually be opening up for the main workforce to get back to work with some restrictions.  

Although in the end, there is an absolute choice to make.  Does hunger/starvation/potential death for 150 million people outweigh the potential deaths on US soil from opening up?  This isn't about the economy or the stock market.  It's a hard question to answer.  I don't envy the people who have to make it.  r.  

[TVScout]

Not free:

The last time the government sought a ‘warp speed’ vaccine, it was a fiasco

It was 1976, and President Gerald Ford was racing to come up with a vaccine for a new strain of swine flu

Quote

They were well aware of the ravages of the 1918 flu, and this virus appeared to be closely related,” political scientist Max J. Skidmore wrote in his book “Presidents, Pandemics, and Politics.” “The officials were concerned about a repetition of the tragedy, or the threat of perhaps an even more virulent pandemic.  

The government had never attempted such an endeavor — both in its breadth and speed.

 

Almost immediately, there was chaos.  

According to Skidmore, a professor at the University of Missouri at Kansas City, insurers were concerned about liability and balked at covering the costs. Manufacturers the government wanted to partner with had similar concerns, prompting Congress to pass a law waiving liability.

One manufacturer produced 2 million doses with the wrong strain. As tests progressed, more scientific problems emerged — even as there were few, if any, signs that a pandemic was materializing. In June, tests showed the vaccine was not effective in children, prompting a public squabble between Salk and Sabin over who should be vaccinated.  

By mid-October, vaccinations were underway. Ford was injected by the White House doctor.

And then more problems emerged. There were reports of sporadic deaths possibly connected to the vaccine. Cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome also emerged, and are still cited today by the anti-vaccine movement. Panic emerged, with dozens of states pausing vaccinations.  By December, following 94 reports of paralysis, the entire program was shut down. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/05/01/vaccine-swine-flu-coronavirus/

Edited May 2, 2020 by TVScout

[mission27]

Just now, WizeGuy said:

It's going to be interesting to see how this treatment evovles. Once studies and doctors provide more knowledge on usage, then perhaps we can find that 'sweet spot' during infection to stop this virus from progressing to fatal levels. 

 

There are a lot of skeptics who think the government is FDA approving Remsidivir to stroke Gileads stock, but a lot of scientists thinks there's some potential here.

Yeah totally agree, honestly my personal guess is the sooner the better.  If you can knock this out as soon as someone shows any signs of serious illness I bet the reduction in mortality is significantly more than the 30% they found (which technically didnt reach their statistical significance threshold given the sample size) because many of those deaths may have been caused by damage already done by the virus or an out of control immune response.

Would also be very interested to see the results of treating people with both remdesivir (to stop the virus) and immunosuppressants (because it seems the immune system has a hard time recognizing when the virus is gone).

And re pumping Gilead stock, if they were doing that, I doubt you'd have the Fauci's of the world going along enthusiastically tbf.  The FDA approval barely moved the needle too, since this has been more or less priced in for a month and its unclear how much Gilead will actually make on this.  The investment thesis on Gilead should be these are smart guys doing cool **** like curing coronavirus and those are the type of companies you want to bet on.

[TVScout]

Maybe free:

Labs Across U.S. Join Federal Initiative to Study Coronavirus Genome

The project, announced by the C.D.C., will help trace patterns of transmission, investigate outbreaks and map how the virus is evolving, which can affect a cure.

Quote

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday announced a national initiative to speed research into how the coronavirus was spreading around the country, bringing together at least 75 public health, academic and commercial institutions studying its genome.

As the virus replicates, tiny mutations accumulate in its genetic code. Those differences help scientists trace patterns of transmission and investigate outbreaks. They also provide an understanding of how the virus is evolving, which can affect the accuracy of diagnostic tests and the effectiveness of treatments and vaccines.

Historically, laboratories studying the genomes of pathogens released only general information about them, often in academic journals. Patient privacy laws in some states also limited the details they could provide. But that began to change in recent years with food-borne illnesses, as officials realized that publicly sharing gene sequences allowed scientists to find links with greater speed and react to save lives.  

Gene sequences are also shared to help track influenza, and officials used them to respond to Ebola outbreaks in West Africa several years ago and, more recently, in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  The new effort, announced by the C.D.C. on its website, builds on that approach. Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the C.D.C.’s director, said in a statement that he was confident the country’s “finest, most skilled minds are working together to help us save lives today and tomorrow.”

 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/science/coronavirus-genetic-sequencing.html

 

 

[TVScout]

Free article for the MoL:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

[theJ]

2 hours ago, mistakey said:

People are gonna stop wearing masks

Why? I don't see why the gov or businesses would stop pushing them, and I don't see why people would stop wearing them when there's still a threat. 

Just seems like a pessimistic take. 

[Xenos]

On April 30, 2020 at 11:35 PM, TLO said:

On the flip side I think the people bitching about not being able to go to the beach when it’s 75 outside are petulant children tbh

Agree, it's ultimately  first world problems when it comes to complaining about not being able to congregate at the beach. Most of the other states do just fine without beaches for their mental health.