Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

Italy and Spain numbers very low today.  Great news.

US number will be interesting.  Last Sunday we had ~27k new cases.  Can we stay 10-15% below a week ago today which would be ~23k cases?  That would be our lowest single day number since March.  We shall see.

Edited May 3, 2020 by mission27

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

Full lockdown sure but most major metros even places like Dallas and Atlanta were shutting businesses and schools and telling people to stay home starting in mid to late March and a lot of people and businesses were doing so voluntarily even earlier.  For most Americans who live in urban or suburban areas this is about week 7 or 8 of staying home and for some longer.  If people see no end in sight they are going to crack and/or stop caring.  

Remember the White House "15 days to stop the spread" started on March 16th, then we had another 30 days, we are talking about over a month and a half now where the federal government has encouraged people to put their entire lives on hold to flatten the curve.  That's a long time.  

People in rural areas and low population density states haven't had to make as much of a life adjustments but cases are lower in these places outside of isolated hot spots so we don't have to be as worried about whether someone in the middle of nowhere in Nebraska is wearing a mask the same way we do in major population centers. 

Cases will be lower in rural areas that's true. The problem is what happens when there is a case there. Hospitals are more easily overwhelmed in those areas.

[mission27]

9 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Cases will be lower in rural areas that's true. The problem is what happens when there is a case there. Hospitals are more easily overwhelmed in those areas.

Cases in rural areas aren't just lower on an absolute basis though, they should also be lower on a per capita basis, because your average person has far less contact than your average person in Manhattan who is in contact with literally thousands of people throughout the day. 

You have fewer people so you have fewer hospitals.  But if cases are much lower per capita, the hospitals you do have will have a better chance of coping, and I believe that is likely to continue to be the case in these areas.  I do agree with you that in general even on a per capita basis a lot of these rural areas have less access to healthcare resources so if you do get sick, your personal risk is probably higher than someone living in a place like Boston with a bunch of world class hospitals, except when those places are totally overwhelmed. 

If you get a cluster in a rural area which is possible you react.  There will be bad situations that pop up, something like this recently happened in a mid-sized town in New Mexico near a reservation I believe so they shut down the town, and obviously there have been clusters at nursing homes and factories in rural areas 

Obviously not saying people in rural areas wont get sick, just that its not a huge barrier to re-opening the country imo.  They're few enough and far between enough that you can realistically respond, its much harder in a metro area where there will be some level of active cases in a densely packed population of millions

[mission27]

Honestly given the high level of transmissibility and large number of mild or asymptomatic cases, I think you're pretty unlikely to capture most of the rural cases.  You'd have to get a pretty big, concentrated cluster around a nursing home or other facility for it to even show up imo.  Like Farmer Frank in rural Vermont gets COVID but is asymptomatic, he passes it to his 5 buddies who he sees in a given week, 2 of them are symptomatic but not critically ill, maybe they pass it to a few other people but they generally all socialize in the same circle, it would take many weeks to get a large number of symptomatic cases in the community and until it gets into a facility like a nursing home where it can spread faster it isn't going to register or cause a particular strain at hospitals. 

In New York, Farmer Frank could be within 6 feet of a few thousand people on an average day, and you will absolutely see a  rapid growth in cases without things like masks.  But thankfully 25% of those people are already immune and many of them he is only in contact with for a matter of seconds, making risk of transmission (especially with a mask) quite low.

[naptownskinsfan]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

Cases in rural areas aren't just lower on an absolute basis though, they should also be lower on a per capita basis, because your average person has far less contact than your average person in Manhattan who is in contact with literally thousands of people throughout the day. 

You have fewer people so you have fewer hospitals.  But if cases are much lower per capita, the hospitals you do have will have a better chance of coping, and I believe that is likely to continue to be the case in these areas.  I do agree with you that in general even on a per capita basis a lot of these rural areas have less access to healthcare resources so if you do get sick, your personal risk is probably higher than someone living in a place like Boston with a bunch of world class hospitals, except when those places are totally overwhelmed. 

If you get a cluster in a rural area which is possible you react.  There will be bad situations that pop up, something like this recently happened in a mid-sized town in New Mexico near a reservation I believe so they shut down the town, and obviously there have been clusters at nursing homes and factories in rural areas 

Obviously not saying people in rural areas wont get sick, just that its not a huge barrier to re-opening the country imo.  They're few enough and far between enough that you can realistically respond, its much harder in a metro area where there will be some level of active cases in a densely packed population of millions

I agree with that.  My concern would be if vacation spots get hit hard, and they don't have adequate medical equipment and facilities.  For example, Ocean City MD has 10,000 hotel rooms, and nearly 9,000 condo/apartment rental licenses.  That's not counting going further up into Delaware along the beaches.  

It's mostly urgent care clinics and at least an hour to a good hospital.  The great hospitals are all across the Bay Bridge which is 90 minutes from Ocean City if you don't have traffic.  

I can easily see people returning to places like this over the summer- maybe not all rooms and condos filled- but even half of them being filled with couples and families vacationing could provide a huge problem.  

At least, if you are only staying a week, chances are you may not even have symptoms until you go home.  But then it becomes a whole other problem spreading it to other places.  I wonder how many of these kind of towns will open up because of this. 

[mission27]

26 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I agree with that.  My concern would be if vacation spots get hit hard, and they don't have adequate medical equipment and facilities.  For example, Ocean City MD has 10,000 hotel rooms, and nearly 9,000 condo/apartment rental licenses.  That's not counting going further up into Delaware along the beaches.  

It's mostly urgent care clinics and at least an hour to a good hospital.  The great hospitals are all across the Bay Bridge which is 90 minutes from Ocean City if you don't have traffic.  

I can easily see people returning to places like this over the summer- maybe not all rooms and condos filled- but even half of them being filled with couples and families vacationing could provide a huge problem.  

At least, if you are only staying a week, chances are you may not even have symptoms until you go home.  But then it becomes a whole other problem spreading it to other places.  I wonder how many of these kind of towns will open up because of this. 

With a 5-14 day incubation period, if Ocean City for example started to become a hot spot and people were getting sick there many likely wouldn't develop symptoms until they got home.  So you mostly need to worry about people working in the hospitality industry and permanent residents, which is a real concern, but not as many people.

Edit: i see you made the same point...  definitely will be a challenge for the vacation towns

Edited May 3, 2020 by mission27

[rob_shadows]

9 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

First the rona, now murder hornets who kill other bees, whose sting could kill a human and can penetrate a normal beekeeper's suit.  2020 can stop giving now.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/us/washington-giant-murder-hornets/index.html

Yeah... I'm thinking 20ish high yield nuclear bombs detonated throughout Washington should do it. The Rockies should provide at least some protection from the fallout traveling too far East.

I know it's a big sacrifice but if there is one thing Covid has taught us it's that sacrifices need to be made for the greater good and them damn things gots to go.

[mission27]

@TLO

couple announcements on today’s MoL:

1. Tlo will be returning tonight for another addition or TLOs day (also known as Sunday) 

2. The MoL is exploring ways to adjust for the typical weekly fluctuations in US data; potentially moving to a 7-day MoL, we are not sure whether we will do this for US only or all countries, no changes until Monday or Tuesday at the earliest

3. The country closest to the MoLs heart, also known as the Canada, reported a huge spike in cases today specifically in Quebec.  Mission has contacted a friend in the Quebec provincial government who has confirmed this is as a result of Quebec    cases from April which were misplaced.  Do not be alarmed by the increase in Canada’s MoL

[rob_shadows]

All these death statistics made me look up a statistic I had never actually wondered about before... Over 150,000 die every day on average in the world... That's so crazy to think about.

Even crazier is the fact that the number of people born every day is substantially higher.

 

[NateDawg]

Is the goal to stay away from everybody until the vaccine comes out in a year or two? The curve has been flattened in a lot of areas, like Ohio. We had been told that’s the goal, but they keep extending the stay at home, now until the end of the month. There are some really contradictory goals going around. It’s obvious that shutting everything down and staying away from people until there is a vaccine is not sustainable, so I’m not sure why things aren’t opening back up at this stage, albeit with precautions. People still have the liberty to stay at home if they feel most comfortable doing that. 

[mission27]

@TLO is out and about not social distancing, so it'll be a bit on the MoLs, but expect them to be posted around 1:30am ET

[N4L]

1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

Is the goal to stay away from everybody until the vaccine comes out in a year or two? The curve has been flattened in a lot of areas, like Ohio. We had been told that’s the goal, but they keep extending the stay at home, now until the end of the month. There are some really contradictory goals going around. It’s obvious that shutting everything down and staying away from people until there is a vaccine is not sustainable, so I’m not sure why things aren’t opening back up at this stage, albeit with precautions. People still have the liberty to stay at home if they feel most comfortable doing that. 

It's a really fine line with tons of grey area, and a large subsection of the general public has not shown to be equiped to take the required precautions for any half measure. If people would stop protesting without masks then lawmakers would probably feel better about easing restrictions. Those protests in Huntington are a prime example, we won't know for two damn weeks how many of those people got sick and even then, most of them probably aren't going to report it if they do for embarrassment/stubbornness

I agree on some level that people should be able to choose, but choosing to not wear a mask should not be one of the choices you are allowed to make. 

If you are wearing a mask, washing hands, not going out if feeling ill, then I agree, some amount of loosening of restrictions could be beneficial overall 

[TLO]

5/3/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Maybe you ran with the wolves and refused to settle down
Maybe I've stormed out of every single room in this town
Threw out our cloaks and our daggers because it's morning now
It's brighter now, now"

- Taylor Swift

It is good to be back with you folks on this fine Sunday evening...Are you ready for it?

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

The Tier 1 countries are walking on sunshine in a major way.  Disclaimer: none of the Bateman gifs have been subject to academic peer  review.

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Hong Kong: 0.2 - As I smugly said a while back, I figured the protesters, whom the MoL support, would be back soon. We are happy to see them back. 

South Korea: 0.4 - Still a great number, and their intelligence about KJU was correct. I'm guessing the folks of Seoul are quite smug rn. Even smugger than usual.

France: 0.6

Portugal: 1.2

Israel: 1.2

Australia: 1.3 - @Shady Slim when will you guys get to HK and SK level? I hope you snap out of your breakup funk by that point so you can go stroll the town for aussie tbh. 

Netherlands: 1.3

China: 1.3

Czech Republic: 1.3

Italy: 1.8

Belgium: 1.8

Japan: 2.0

Austria: 2.2

Switzerland: 2.6

Germany: 3.2

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

The message of this Bateman gif is that, while Tier 2 countries can always do better, most of these countries (like Bateman) are actually in a very attractive and enviable position 

Turkey: 3.1 - Wouldn't be surprised to see them break into Tier 1 soon tbh

Sweden: 3.3

Spain: 3.6 - Mission is hoping they break into tier 1 so he can go find ms. dubai in spain again a la the great Tiger W schlonging of 2018.

USA: 3.7 - Tbh these protesters here are making me heated. While the MoL supports a good protest a la HK, the majority of these people (particularly those of TLO's hometown) are moronic.

UK: 3.8

Philippines: 3.9 

Global: 4.0 

Singapore: 4.7 

Ireland: 5.4 - This text color is not red @FinneasGage

Denmark: 5.9

Canada: 6.8 - Mission already touched on the issues with Quebec's reporting. Rest assured, Ernesto has taken care of it moving forward.

Iran: 6.8* (why dont they just do a fatwah on coronavirus)

India: 9.9

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Tier 3 countries may very well be on the verge of a lethal frenzy, but if they may also be placated by securing the right table at Dorsia or proper social distancing which could push them into Tier 2

Russia: 9.8

Brazil: 16.0

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

There's really not much positive to say here tbh, just read the gif

Mexico: 26.2 - this number still remains more grotesque than @Tyty cocktail making ability 

USA State Level MoLs

Tbh hoping CA can break into Tier 1 in time for the annual Ronald Goldman Memorial Summit. 

MoL Deaths

Deaths down a lot over the past few days but flat week over week (not a bad thing, since last Sunday was a really good number)

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@mission27

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[NateDawg]

39 minutes ago, N4L said:

It's a really fine line with tons of grey area, and a large subsection of the general public has not shown to be equiped to take the required precautions for any half measure. If people would stop protesting without masks then lawmakers would probably feel better about easing restrictions. Those protests in Huntington are a prime example, we won't know for two damn weeks how many of those people got sick and even then, most of them probably aren't going to report it if they do for embarrassment/stubbornness

I agree on some level that people should be able to choose, but choosing to not wear a mask should not be one of the choices you are allowed to make. 

If you are wearing a mask, washing hands, not going out if feeling ill, then I agree, some amount of loosening of restrictions could be beneficial overall 

For the people not taking precautions by now, that segment of society is unable to be redeemed. The chaff out there acting like buffoons will be acting like buffoons six months from now also. FF is a fine population case study. With 90% of posters, a rational conversation can be had. Then there is the vocal minority that you either want to block or you read just for comedic relief. At some point, people need to live life. To that end, I’m not sure how the mentality will be different several months from now than it is today for the population as a whole, to include the irresponsible. Because of that, as long as the curve is flat and the medical system can be sustained, it seems to me they need to open things up. It’s that or you wait for the vaccine, which we know our society can’t wait for. I 100% get the seriousness of this and I’m not minimizing the virus, I just don’t get the objectives at this point.

Edited May 4, 2020 by NateDawg

[GSUeagles14]

20 hours ago, mission27 said:

Its impossible to talk about Trump without getting political tbh but whatever you think of him, I dont think anyone on here is or was using him as a source on likely COVID death count

agreed.