Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

I'm hearing a lot of people including Gotleib saying mitigation didn't work as well as expected 

There's probably some truth to that but a few important caveats: 

1. The US is closer to Europe than it is to Italy.  We are a big, diverse country with a lot of different regional outbreaks and regional policies.  If you look at the curves in Washington State or New York, where there were full blown active outbreaks, they look pretty similar to most European countries that had outbreaks.  

2. Most of Europe did have active outbreaks when they locked down whereas much of the US didn't.  Its easier to show a decline in R0 and new cases when you are starting at a very high level of community spread.  Places like California or Texas that had low levels of this floating around the community for a long time are going to have a harder time showing that kind of progress, without a full blown testing, tracing, and elimination strategy a la New Zealand or Australia, which probably isn't realistic.  Combine that with increased testing and you would expect to see some increase in cases in these places.  The more relevant data there is deaths and hospitalizations and we have seen no spikes in deaths or hospitalizations in those places. 

3. Europe hit mid-30ks of new cases around March 24th and stayed there for nearly a month.  The US hit that level April 4th, so we'd expect to be seeing a sustained decline in US cases overall starting now (with some states having declined earlier and some states just now starting to level off).  However, the US increased daily average testing volumes in the last couple of weeks of April by ~70%!!  Every country is steadily testing more and more but that kind of jump is bound to distort your numbers for a couple of weeks.  If you look at new deaths, which should be about 10 days behind new cases, the trailing average has been declining since April 24th... suggesting true new cases peaked around mid-April, probably a couple weeks behind Europe. I do think we will start to see a decline in new cases again over the next few weeks, barring another huge increase in testing, and that is despite some lockdowns lifting.  But we'll see.

[Ty21]

8 hours ago, TLO said:

Mexico: 26.2 - this number still remains more grotesque than @Tyty cocktail making ability

I didn’t create those recipes 😂

[mission27]

Example of the testing impact on cases: California.  This is a nice graphic from the LA times.  Focus on the 7 day trailing average (line) not any given day (bars).

California looked like it peaked in new cases, or at least plateau, in the first week of April.  And sure enough if you look at deaths they hit a peak a week or two after that.  

However, the third week of April there was a huge spike in the daily case volume.  This is around the time US testing volumes jumped 70ish%.  I cant find California testing data but my hunch is California is a big driver given population and they ramped up testing in mid to late April (good thing!).  If this is a real 'increase' in cases you'd expect to see the death curve start to rise again, which hasnt happened yet.  Its still possible.  But my guess is we will continue to see the death curve decline in California and that new cases are actually declining and the rise is driven by testing.

@TLO is on the ground and can provide more color tbh

[ramssuperbowl99]

8 hours ago, NateDawg said:

8 hours ago, N4L said:

It's a really fine line with tons of grey area, and a large subsection of the general public has not shown to be equiped to take the required precautions for any half measure. If people would stop protesting without masks then lawmakers would probably feel better about easing restrictions. Those protests in Huntington are a prime example, we won't know for two damn weeks how many of those people got sick and even then, most of them probably aren't going to report it if they do for embarrassment/stubbornness

I agree on some level that people should be able to choose, but choosing to not wear a mask should not be one of the choices you are allowed to make. 

If you are wearing a mask, washing hands, not going out if feeling ill, then I agree, some amount of loosening of restrictions could be beneficial overall 

For the people not taking precautions by now, that segment of society is unable to be redeemed. The chaff out there acting like buffoons will be acting like buffoons six months from now also. FF is a fine population case study. With 90% of posters, a rational conversation can be had. Then there is the vocal minority that you either want to block or you read just for comedic relief. At some point, people need to live life. To that end, I’m not sure how the mentality will be different several months from now than it is today for the population as a whole, to include the irresponsible. Because of that, as long as the curve is flat and the medical system can be sustained, it seems to me they need to open things up. It’s that or you wait for the vaccine, which we know our society can’t wait for. I 100% get the seriousness of this and I’m not minimizing the virus, I just don’t get the objectives at this point.

Apologies if this isn't @N4L's point, but a pandemic with a highly transmittable virus is precisely the time you can't just ignore and laugh off the quarter of Americans who are varying degrees of bat**** crazy. 

I'll use a real example: protests in Madison WI went viral. And all those same nuts are at the capital square during the Farmer's Market every Saturday during the summer saying evolution isn't real and how baby jesus wants everyone to have a rainbow powered tractor or whatever else. And normally, I laugh at them or ignore them or move on with my day because it doesn't change anyone's life whether we agree or not. But we don't have that luxury today. When these idiots get sick, and they will, they're going to see the same healthcare professionals you or I would. They're going to the same stores and parks and jobs. 

Social distancing with 90% adherence isn't social distancing. The virus isn't going to ignore your crazy uncle just because the rest of us would like to. 

To sum it all up, if/when restrictions are loosened, you need a babysitting policy. Masks should be part of it. So should 6 foot distancing. There are tons of other smaller scale ideas you could add onto that, and governments should try and get every single one of them coded into ordinances/law temporarily as much as possible. We don't want to, but society can only move as fast as the dumbest people in it.

[mission27]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Apologies if this isn't @N4L's point, but a pandemic with a highly transmittable virus is precisely the time you can't just ignore and laugh off the quarter of Americans who are varying degrees of bat**** crazy. 

I'll use a real example: protests in Madison WI went viral. And all those same nuts are at the capital square during the Farmer's Market every Saturday during the summer saying evolution isn't real and how baby jesus wants everyone to have a rainbow powered tractor or whatever else. And normally, I laugh at them or ignore them or move on with my day because it doesn't change anyone's life whether we agree or not. But we don't have that luxury today. When these idiots get sick, and they will, they're going to see the same healthcare professionals you or I would. They're going to the same stores and parks and jobs. 

Social distancing with 90% adherence isn't social distancing. The virus isn't going to ignore your crazy uncle just because the rest of us would like to. 

To sum it all up, if/when restrictions are loosened, you need a babysitting policy. Masks should be part of it. So should 6 foot distancing. There are tons of other smaller scale ideas you could add onto that, and governments should try and get every single one of them coded into ordinances/law temporarily as much as possible. We don't want to, but society can only move as fast as the dumbest people in it.

Tbh we should give people a choice

If you want to protest and don't think the virus is a big deal, we will give you an injection of active virus, you just sign a waiver that you will not be able to receive intensive care and we lock you up in a fat camp for 2 weeks 

Personally mission would probably take that deal, not because he doesn't think the virus is a big deal, but just because he'd like this to be all over (and is probably already immune).  But I bet so would a bunch of 60+ fat ****s in Wisconsin who don't believe in evolution and the world would be a much better place for it.

[mission27]

Those who fail to learn the lesson of Darwinism in school are doomed to repeat them

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, mission27 said:

Tbh we should give people a choice

If you want to protest and don't think the virus is a big deal, we will give you an injection of active virus, you just sign a waiver that you will not be able to receive intensive care and we lock you up in a fat camp for 2 weeks 

Personally mission would probably take that deal, not because he doesn't think the virus is a big deal, but just because he'd like this to be all over (and is probably already immune).  But I bet so would a bunch of 60+ fat ****s in Wisconsin who don't believe in evolution and the world would be a much better place for it.

Remember the response when I said if you were caught outside in violation of a stay-at-home order, you should be put at the end of the line for medical supplies?

[mission27]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Remember the response when I said if you were caught outside in violation of a stay-at-home order, you should be put at the end of the line for medical supplies?

Well tbf there are a lot of people who have a legit reason or need to violate stay-at-home orders, if someone is leaving their house to give illicit haircuts because they need the money to feed their family I have no ill will against that person, or someone who is going to visit friends and family or going to an outdoor space to get some fresh air.

But there's a big difference between that and some 300 pound bearded POS from the flea state of Wisconsin in an F350 with a swastika on their truck and an assault rifle, I think we should just let those folks drink bleach tbhwy

[MacReady]

I'm always up for freedom.  People should have their freedoms returned.  "Your liberty to swing your fist ends where my nose begins." 

We just have to pretend everyone else's nose now extends out six feet. 

Essential businesses should be allowed to create new restrictions on liberty.  A grocery store for example should be able to require everyone to wear a mask.  Nursing homes should maintain the ability to be on a tight lockdown. 

As far as bars, concerts, sporting events, parks, theme parks, etc, open them the hell up.  If people want to go to massive gatherings of people, that choice is on them and they need to suffer the consequences.

I know personally I am going to maintain social distancing and not do anything near large crowds like I've done my entire life.  Yes it will suck for me when the Walmart I get my groceries from gets back to being crowded, but I'm not embarrassed easily, so I don't give a dang if I get stares for wearing a mask and gloves three months from now. 

I really have little sympathy for people gathering in large crowds to protest this.  There are ways to protest without gathering in large crowds. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Remember the response when I said if you were caught outside in violation of a stay-at-home order, you should be put at the end of the line for medical supplies?

Well tbf there are a lot of people who have a legit reason or need to violate stay-at-home orders, if someone is leaving their house to give illicit haircuts because they need the money to feed their family I have no ill will against that person, or someone who is going to visit friends and family or going to an outdoor space to get some fresh air.

But there's a big difference between that and some 300 pound bearded POS from the flea state of Wisconsin in an F350 with a swastika on their truck and an assault rifle, I think we should just let those folks drink bleach tbhwy

No one would be arrested for anything but the most extreme violations (e.g. bragging online about holding a church service). Definitely not getting groceries or going to work.

[mission27]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

I'm always up for freedom.  People should have their freedoms returned.  "Your liberty to swing your fist ends where my nose begins." 

We just have to pretend everyone else's nose now extends out six feet. 

Essential businesses should be allowed to create new restrictions on liberty.  A grocery store for example should be able to require everyone to wear a mask.  Nursing homes should maintain the ability to be on a tight lockdown. 

As far as bars, concerts, sporting events, parks, theme parks, etc, open them the hell up.  If people want to go to massive gatherings of people, that choice is on them and they need to suffer the consequences.

I know personally I am going to maintain social distancing and not do anything near large crowds like I've done my entire life.  Yes it will suck for me when the Walmart I get my groceries from gets back to being crowded, but I'm not embarrassed easily, so I don't give a dang if I get stares for wearing a mask and gloves three months from now. 

I really have little sympathy for people gathering in large crowds to protest this.  There are ways to protest without gathering in large crowds. 

"We just have to pretend everyone else's nose now extends out six feet."

That's a good motto for all of us tbh

Agree with everything you say except for concerts and sporting events.  Not so much worried about the folks who go to those events (I agree its their choice) as the negative impact on all of us if we get another NYC level outbreak and have to go back into lockdown in a month or helathcare system gets overwhelmed.  In either case, people are going to be seriously harmed who didn't make the choice to go see a baseball game.  I think those events are going to have to come back more slowly. 

But everything else... 100%... we need to get to a policy of "wear a mask, wash your hands, and live your life" and hope for the best

[MacReady]

Just now, mission27 said:

"We just have to pretend everyone else's nose now extends out six feet."

That's a good motto for all of us tbh

Agree with everything you say except for concerts and sporting events.  Not so much worried about the folks who go to those events (I agree its their choice) as the negative impact on all of us if we get another NYC level outbreak and have to go back into lockdown in a month or helathcare system gets overwhelmed.  In either case, people are going to be seriously harmed who didn't make the choice to go see a baseball game.  I think those events are going to have to come back more slowly. 

But everything else... 100%... we need to get to a policy of "wear a mask, wash your hands, and live your life" and hope for the best

I used sporting events because I cannot think of any other example of crowds.  Lol.  I have been in a place with more than a hundred people like three times in my life, and twice were at Lambeau Field, once when I was a kid and couldn't even go on Splash ****ing Mountain because I was too little and that's all I remember about it. 

[Glen]

5 minutes ago, mission27 said:

But there's a big difference between that and some 300 pound bearded POS from the flea state of Wisconsin in an F350 with a swastika on their truck and an assault rifle, I think we should just let those folks drink bleach tbhwy

Phew. No swastikas here. Or I'd be in trouble.

[mission27]

1 minute ago, Glen said:

Phew. No swastikas here. Or I'd be in trouble.

We'll let the beard slide, but gonna need you to lose some weight tbh

[MacReady]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

No one would be arrested for anything but the most extreme violations (e.g. bragging online about holding a church service). Definitely not getting groceries or going to work.

My old youth pastor, now pastor pastor of the church I used to go to just held a service from the bed of his truck with everyone in attendance in their cars tuned into a radio station.  He put it up on Facebook.  You gonna tell him he's gotta die because he was preaching messages of hope and faith during a global pandemic if he gets it?