mistakey Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, theJ said: Social distancing isn't stopping. Some things are re-opening, but a lot of things are remaining closed. Millions still can't go back to work because daycares and schools are still closed. Restaurants are still closed. I'd like to see what this model is based on. The powerpoint doesn't say. Where can i put money down on the under? The graph in the powerpoint thing says 6/1. The tweet says 6/1. That's a month from now, not end of June. do i think it will be under than 200k a day? yeah. likely. will it get worse than where we are now? absolutely. its gonna get worse in hot places, its gonna start spreading again, like it is in states not named NY and NJ (mainly just cause we were hit so bad the first time). is mission and tlo gonna look terribly wrong? yep. will they rationalize it away with very bad takes to keep their ego inflated? yep. do i hope im wrong? of course, i want to do jiujitsu again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, mistakey said: stopping social distancing I would buy exponential growth again if all precautions were stopped today. But the "re-opening" we've been talking about for the last week or so isn't that. We're talking about limited things coming back in a reduced capacity, people being required to wear masks in some settings, and generally being way more cautious than we were 8 weeks ago when we were all oblivious. I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, mistakey said: i think what is more likely is your model is wrong I dont have a model that predicts future case #s tbh But the model you posted does not align with any other model or the experience of other countries that are 2-4 weeks ahead of the US and we know absolutely nothing about when this modeled was developed, what assumptions were used, what the purpose of the model was, etc. The actual and modeled death count is wildly off for all of March vs. April and they are predicting a 10x increases in cases resulting in only 30-50% more deaths per day. The only way that makes sense is if we are also increasing testing by 10x... which is possible but an aggressive assumption... again that's why we need to know more about the assumptions behind this model before we draw any conclusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mistakey said: do i think it will be under than 200k a day? yeah. likely. will it get worse than where we are now? absolutely. its gonna get worse in hot places, its gonna start spreading again, like it is in states not named NY and NJ (mainly just cause we were hit so bad the first time). is mission and tlo gonna look terribly wrong? yep. will they rationalize it away with very bad takes to keep their ego inflated? yep. do i hope im wrong? of course, i want to do jiujitsu again. Yeah it stands to reason that it will get worse if more people are out an about. But that graph shows pre-March 15th levels of exponential growth. The conditions now are the not the same as early March. Which means 200k is a looooong shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mistakey said: do i think it will be under than 200k a day? yeah. likely. will it get worse than where we are now? absolutely. its gonna get worse in hot places, its gonna start spreading again, like it is in states not named NY and NJ (mainly just cause we were hit so bad the first time). is mission and tlo gonna look terribly wrong? yep. will they rationalize it away with very bad takes to keep their ego inflated? yep. do i hope im wrong? of course, i want to do jiujitsu again. First of all, the MoL never said there wouldn't be an increase in cases and deaths when distancing was relaxed. Quite the opposite. We fully expect there will be. Moving past that... the thing is, we likely had 500k+ new cases per day at the peak in March and April So yes if we expand testing by 10x, we will see 200k new cases a day. That wouldn't actually mean things were getting worse My biggest issue with the model is: 1. I dont buy that we are going to increase testing that much (even though we should) 2. I dont buy that deaths will go up, given they have steadily fallen for the past 2-3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, mission27 said: I dont have a model that predicts future case #s tbh But the model you posted does not align with any other model or the experience of other countries that are 2-4 weeks ahead of the US and we know absolutely nothing about when this modeled was developed, what assumptions were used, what the purpose of the model was, etc. The actual and modeled death count is wildly off for all of March vs. April and they are predicting a 10x increases in cases resulting in only 30-50% more deaths per day. The only way that makes sense is if we are also increasing testing by 10x... which is possible but an aggressive assumption... again that's why we need to know more about the assumptions behind this model before we draw any conclusions litreally all you do inthis thread is talk about the future and how its getting better so maybe you should make a model that predicts future cases so at least you can put your money where your stats are and/or improve your takes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, mistakey said: i think what is more likely is your model is wrong I think the most likely scenario is the one where mission doesn't have a model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, theJ said: Yeah it stands to reason that it will get worse if more people are out an about. But that graph shows pre-March 15th levels of exponential growth. The conditions now are the not the same as early March. Which means 200k is a looooong shot. ok so rule #1 of covid-19 if you havent figured out by now is that "if youre optimistic in anyway what so-ever, stop, dont do it, you will be dissappointed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: ok so rule #1 of covid-19 if you havent figured out by now is that "if youre optimistic in anyway what so-ever, stop, dont do it, you will be dissappointed" rule #2 is, if your'e south korean or singaporean or taiwanese you can disregard-ish rule #1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mistakey said: litreally all you do inthis thread is talk about the future and how its getting better so maybe you should make a model that predicts future cases so at least you can put your money where your stats are and/or improve your takes Things are getting better When distancing is relaxed, things will probably start to get worse We should still relax distancing These 3 statements are not contradictory and in fact I don't think even you disagree with any of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, mistakey said: ok so rule #1 of covid-19 if you havent figured out by now is that "if youre optimistic in anyway what so-ever, stop, dont do it, you will be dissappointed" Our optimism has been well placed in regards to: CFR Hospital and ventilator capacity being sufficient Impact of distancing on completely stopping exponential growth Remdesivir So idk what you're talking about tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: Things are getting better When distancing is relaxed, things will probably start to get worse We should still relax distancing These 3 statements are not contradictory and in fact I don't think even you disagree with any of them. i dont think things are getting better. i think we did our best to prolong as best we could on a national level with terrible leadership and hope/pray/meditate on/whatever your chosen preference in order to hope for the best that the scientists actually came up with a good therapeutic and we can manufacture it very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: i dont think things are getting better. i think we did our best to prolong as best we could on a national level with terrible leadership and hope/pray/meditate on/whatever your chosen preference in order to hope for the best that the scientists actually came up with a good therapeutic and we can manufacture it very quickly. The death rate has slowly and steadily declined for the past 2-3 weeks as has the % of tests coming back positive. What explains this, if we have not reduced R0 below 1 in much of the country? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: Our optimism has been well placed in regards to: CFR Hospital and ventilator capacity being sufficient Impact of distancing on completely stopping exponential growth Remdesivir So idk what you're talking about tbh. remdesivir wont save lives, just keep hospital throughput up. its a decent start but its not anywhere close to being the solution. all your numbers are meaningless so #1 literally is thrown out NY hospital and ventilator capacity certianly wasnt. it wasnt as terrible as it was projected to be but it was in no way sufficient. uh, i guess you can take credit for something that everyone else thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVScout Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Comedy relief: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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