ramssuperbowl99 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: Thats called a forecast Nope that's called validating a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said: Nope that's called validating a model. Nope that's called a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Glen said: have you ever eaten money. Its not bad Pretty sure it helped Magic Johnson cure aids 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
animaltested Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 (edited) BTW, the people I still know in South Korea are already out partying and whatnot. That could have been us if the US didn't bungle this thing so friggin bad at the start, and took it as serious as literally everyone else. They didn't even have to shut everything down. Last week, first day of no recorded new cases. Quote And the Korean approach is highly efficient and effective. When I returned from Germany at the end of March, there was a well-functioning protocol in place. Before I left Frankfurt Airport, I was asked to download an app from the Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare, and a second, from the Ministry of Interior and Safety, once I landed. Upon arrival, we were escorted outside the building for COVID-19 testing, and boarded a chartered bus to a police facility, to wait for the test results overnight. Food and other amenities were provided, and I received my results the following morning. After my negative test result, the chartered bus took all the foreign passengers back to the airport, where we were asked not to use any form of public transport to return home (taxis are checked to make sure there are no arrival passengers using them). When I got home, I had to report back on my health status every day. I was also given a grocery box and a basic set of masks and hand sanitizer!” https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/05/1063112 Edited May 4, 2020 by animaltested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Outpost31 said: As far as bars, concerts, sporting events, parks, theme parks, etc, open them the hell up. If people want to go to massive gatherings of people, that choice is on them and they need to suffer the consequences. I know personally I am going to maintain social distancing and not do anything near large crowds like I've done my entire life. Yes it will suck for me when the Walmart I get my groceries from gets back to being crowded, but I'm not embarrassed easily, so I don't give a dang if I get stares for wearing a mask and gloves three months from now. I really have little sympathy for people gathering in large crowds to protest this. There are ways to protest without gathering in large crowds. I hear you as far as this is concerned because my attitude keeps swinging back to this. I have to remember though, it isn't THEM that I am concerned about. It's when they see Grandma, or their older neighbor, or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, MikeT14 said: I hear you as far as this is concerned because my attitude keeps swinging back to this. I have to remember though, it isn't THEM that I am concerned about. It's when they see Grandma, or their older neighbor, or whatever. Like I said, if you live with Grandma, gotta take the right precautions. At the same time, Grandma has to be responsible for her decisions, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 https://www.education.vic.gov.au/school/teachers/teachingresources/discipline/science/continuum/Pages/scimodels.aspx Quote A scientific model is a physical and/or mathematical and/or conceptual representation of a system of ideas, events or processes. Scientists seek to identify and understand patterns in our world by drawing on their scientific knowledge to offer explanations that enable the patterns to be predicted. https://www.britannica.com/science/scientific-modeling Quote Scientific modeling, the generation of a physical, conceptual, or mathematical representation of a real phenomenon that is difficult to observe directly. Scientific models are used to explain and predict the behaviour of real objects or systems and are used in a variety of scientific disciplines. https://study.com/academy/lesson/scientific-models-definition-examples.html Quote A scientific model is a representation of a particular phenomenon in the world using something else to represent it, making it easier to understand. A scientific model could be a diagram or picture, a physical model like an aircraft model kit you got when you were young, a computer program, or set of complex mathematics that describes a situation. Whatever it is, the goal is to make the particular thing you're modeling easier to understand. When we do that, we're able to use it to predict what will happen in the future. For example, predicting what will happen as our climate changes would be easy if we could make a fully accurate model of the atmosphere. https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/575-scientific-modelling Quote Models are a mentally visual way of linking theory with experiment, and they guide research by being simplified representations of an imagined reality that enable predictions to be developed and tested by experiment. https://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-technology/science/what-scientific-model Quote ADAM RUTHERFORD: At the most basic level, a model is a way of taking data and measurements from the real world and simulating what happens when we fiddle around with them: how much rainfall, the flow of rivers, that type of thing. It’s a way of simplifying the chaos of the physical world, in a computer so that we can try to predict what might happen in the real world. You can run simulations thousands of times, each with very subtle changes to see what happens. ANDREW PONSON, Astrophysicist: I would say a model is a set of ideas we have around how some specific aspect of nature works. And normally when we call it a model, we probably mean it’s tentative at some level. So we’re not trying to make a claim that we’ve summarised everything about how that particular thing works. We’re trying to give some impression that we haven’t yet packaged up everything about that particular aspect of nature, but we have some working set of ideas that we’re using to create tests that we can then go and compare to reality. CAROLE HASWELL, Astrophysicist: ... It’s a way of using what you’ve observed to work out what you think is the most important things that are governing the behaviour. And then setting up something that encapsulates what you think is important, to see if that actually reproduces what you’re observing. NICK REYNARD, Hydrologist, extreme weather: ...that helps us understand right now what the hydrology is doing, what the flows are like, but it also allows us to use those models to forecast and predict what the flows might be like in the future. The entire purpose of a model is the predictive capabilities of it. If your model doesn't predict, it's not a model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, pwny said: https://www.education.vic.gov.au/school/teachers/teachingresources/discipline/science/continuum/Pages/scimodels.aspx https://www.britannica.com/science/scientific-modeling https://study.com/academy/lesson/scientific-models-definition-examples.html https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/575-scientific-modelling https://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-technology/science/what-scientific-model The entire purpose of a model is the predictive capabilities of it. If your model doesn't predict, it's not a model. It predicts unknown things that have happened in the past. Duh If I built a model of the progression of the black plague in 14th century Europe it wouldnt have any forward looking predicative power either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 The CDC and the Trump administration are projecting the daily death toll to nearly double and be around 3000 per day by June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, mission27 said: It predicts unknown things that have happened in the past. Duh If I built a model of the progression of the black plague in 14th century Europe it wouldnt have any forward looking predicative power either No, but if you made an actual model, it would be able to predict how the Black Plague would have progressed differently if you changed various factors. It also would be capable of recreating the entire data set if you only plugged in the first half of the data. You don’t have a model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, animaltested said: BTW, the people I still know in South Korea are already out partying and whatnot. That could have been us if the US didn't bungle this thing so friggin bad at the start, and took it as serious as literally everyone else. They didn't even have to shut everything down. Last week, first day of no recorded new cases. https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/05/1063112 If we could get enough rapid testing capacity to test everyone at the borders that would be very helpful in lifting travel restrictions and given travel will be down for a while anyway, may be doable. Although imo the goal eventually should be rapid testing conducted BEFORE someone gets on a plane for an international flight with some form of pre-clearance, similar to how you can pre-clear US immigration and customs at several airports in Canada, etc. Otherwise you are going to have a hard to getting anyone to travel international for business or pleasure, especially day trips and the like, if they are guaranteed to be detained for 12+ hours and potentially test positive for COVID in a foreign country and have to stay locked down there for weeks. EDIT: The other issue with arrival testing if if someone tests positive, you just had that person stuck in a metal tube with all your other passengers for the past several hours. Its not ideal for either the passenger or the country that is taking that passenger in. Pre-travel clearance would be much more effective. Edited May 4, 2020 by mission27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, pwny said: No, but if you made an actual model, it would be able to predict how the Black Plague would have progressed differently if you changed various factors. It also would be capable of recreating the entire data set if you only plugged in the first half of the data. You don’t have a model. Believe me, the MoL has a model, and its tremendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Heimdallr said: The CDC and the Trump administration are projecting the daily death toll to nearly double and be around 3000 per day by June. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, pwny said: It also would be capable of recreating the entire data set if you only plugged in the first half of the data. Do you understand how models work? Have you ever seen a real world model? That degree of accuracy is called over fitting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, MikeT14 said: Ugh. They are purposefully releasing overly pessimistic projections that show a huge spike in cases so that when the spike doesn't materialize they can say how great of a job they did Its counter programming to all the blow back over the last few weeks about going over 60k cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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