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6/1/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Shake it off"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL hopes everyone is safe.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

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Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still!)

Netherlands: 0.3

Belgium: 0.5

UK: 0.7

Italy: 0.8

France: 1.0

Spain: 1.0

Czech Republic: 1.7

USA: 1.9

Japan: 2.0

Sweden: 2.3

Portugal: 2.3

Canada: 2.5_

Australia: 2.5

Ireland: 2.6

Switzerland: 2.8

Singapore: 2.9

Israel: 2.9

Turkey: 3.0

Global: 3.1

Austria: 3.6

Germany: 3.7

China: 5.5

Hong Kong: 9.8 (they reported their first local transmission in 2 weeks, which is just one case, but if we see a handful of cases you have to start worrying about another wave)

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

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Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Russia: 3.8

Denmark: 5.2

South Korea: 6.0

Philippines: 6.1

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

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These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 9.5

Iran: 10.6 

Brazil: 10.9

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

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We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 22.9

USA State Level MoLs

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Minnesota getting close to breaking into Tier 2, which would be nice.

MoL Deaths

Slight uptick, but mostly held last weeks gains when you account for the ~150 nursing home deaths reported in Massachusetts (you can see this in cases too).

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Canada

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Great job @JBURGE

Numbers keep getting better

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The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

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The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

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5 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Minnesota getting close to breaking into Tier 2, which would be nice.

Don't worry, we've been rioting for a week and just opened up a ton. We'll get our numbers back up and keep our #1 spot.

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Just now, Heimdallr said:

Don't worry, we've been rioting for a week and just opened up a ton. We'll get our numbers back up and keep our #1 spot.

Minnesota’s one and only chance for a title this century 

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Well let's see of the Voltron model death projection is correct for June 6th. From May 13th:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/13/855038708/combining-different-models-new-coronavirus-projection-shows-110-000-deaths-by-ju

Quote

Enter Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Reich and his colleagues have developed a method to compare and ultimately to merge the diverse models of the disease's progression into one "ensemble" projection. The resulting forecast is sobering. By June 6, it projects, the cumulative death toll in the U.S. will reach 110,000.

 

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