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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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26 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Your car scenario would also never exist in the real world. Nor is it applicable to what is happening right now.

You're right. And it does miss the point.

I was just trying to prove a point with an obvious example. IRL the safety vs economics debate is more nuanced and happens on a gradual scale. All I was trying to point out is that at some point the cost benefit of safety is too burdensome to bear. And that does happen everyday. 

I work in industrial environments. The safe ones have admitted that safety is important, but is not their #1 goal. Their number one goal is to make their product. Safety is built around that goal, and they take measures they feel are appropriate to protect their workers AND make their product. The poor safety companies I visit usually proclaim "Safety #1" and lose perspective of all it. 

My point is that with restaurants, or any business, we need to find ways to keep them open and profitable, safely, because we're all going to be very sorry later on if we don't. We can't just say "it's not safe" without looking for ways to keep it safe. 

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2 minutes ago, theJ said:

You're right. And it does miss the point.

I was just trying to prove a point with an obvious example. IRL the safety vs economics debate is more nuanced and happens on a gradual scale. All I was trying to point out is that at some point the cost benefit of safety is too burdensome to bear. And that does happen everyday. 

I work in industrial environments. The safe ones have admitted that safety is important, but is not their #1 goal. Their number one goal is to make their product. Safety is built around that goal, and they take measures they feel are appropriate to protect their workers AND make their product. The poor safety companies I visit usually proclaim "Safety #1" and lose perspective of all it. 

My point is that with restaurants, or any business, we need to find ways to keep them open and profitable, safely, because we're all going to be very sorry later on if we don't. We can't just say "it's not safe" without looking for ways to keep it safe. 

I think we’re actually in more agreement than we both think. The uncertain nature of Covid-19 has definitely thrown a lot things in the wretch.

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10 hours ago, theJ said:

I really dislike when people dismiss economics like it doesn't matter. 

Economics are how we feed 7 billion people on this planet. It can't just be dismissed out of hand for safety. We take risks every day to do the things we do. Safety is not #1. That's a lie, and will always be a lie. 

Anyway, sorry. You're probably not saying that exactly. I just needed to vent. 

I completely agree with you, I've said plenty to that point.  However, I'm also in the restaurant industry.  Some places are still keeping their dining rooms closed as far as chains go.  In my area, I've seen a lot of patios and outdoor dining go up, and shortly after that, we could go back to 50% capacity in dining rooms.  

In my opinion, if a restaurant was closed and is reopening at indoor dining, they are doing it wrong.  It should be a gradual phased opening so the staff isn't overwhelmed and you can implement cleaning and sanitization procedures before you have customers back in the restaurant.  

We had our first day with the mall fully open for eight hours.  It took them over five hours until they came around and wiped the tables down in the food court.  Meanwhile, my chain does not have dining rooms open yet (or even outdoor dining) and we are sanitizing our areas much more frequently than the tables where people are eating.  

It's that kind of irresponsibility and inexperience that I want to avoid.  Because just like cooking food and holding food at the wrong temperatures can get people sick, lack of appropriate cleaning and sanitization is going to get people sick.  

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3 hours ago, Ozzy said:

In what world is the USA doing a great job handled this pandemic?  Do people actually believe that?  #1 in cases by a wide margin and #1 if Deaths by a wide margin, #1 in testing sure but honestly so what.  Yeah Russia has a lot of tests done, 2nd to the USA but with 500,000+ cases, they have only 8000 deaths.  

 

 

                       Total Cases          Total Deaths

1 USA 2,330,578   121,980                  
2 Brazil 1,070,139   50,058                  
3 Russia 576,952   8,002                  
4 India 411,727   13,277                  
5 UK 303,110   42,589                  
6 Spain 293,018   28,322                  
7 Peru 251,338   7,861                  
8 Italy 238,275   34,610                  
9 Chile 236,748   4,295                  
10 Iran 202,584   9,507

 

 

Do people honestly believe the USA have done some great job in any of this?  China has 1.4 billion people and only 4600+ deaths, sure they could be lying but it did start there obviously.  India 1.3 billion people and only 13,000+ deaths etc.

I am willing to bet that many of those places- except Italy- have the virus run roughshod through the older population.  It happened in Italy because families live together in densely populated areas.  It happened here in assisted care facilities because many jurisdictions just decided to close the doors and let things happen with no concern to PPE, moving healthy patients around, etc.  

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2 hours ago, Xenos said:

I get your doctor friends’ concern. But I still think in the grand scheme of things, I would still rather not expose my immune system to COVID 19 even at the risk of weakening it against normal colds and viruses.

We have an immune system that's been finely tuned through centuries of evolution.  Part of it is being exposed to pathogens.  This is a deadly one for sure, but there is no telling what we might do to ourselves with a full-stop to our immune system if masks end up being something that are more permanent.  Not to mention all of our own carbon dioxide we are breathing in with it.  

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27 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

We have an immune system that's been finely tuned through centuries of evolution.  Part of it is being exposed to pathogens.  This is a deadly one for sure, but there is no telling what we might do to ourselves with a full-stop to our immune system if masks end up being something that are more permanent.  Not to mention all of our own carbon dioxide we are breathing in with it.  

How long are you wearing your mask and are you sure it isn't an airtight plastic bag?

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5 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:
7 hours ago, Xenos said:

I get your doctor friends’ concern. But I still think in the grand scheme of things, I would still rather not expose my immune system to COVID 19 even at the risk of weakening it against normal colds and viruses.

We have an immune system that's been finely tuned through centuries of evolution.  Part of it is being exposed to pathogens.  This is a deadly one for sure, but there is no telling what we might do to ourselves with a full-stop to our immune system if masks end up being something that are more permanent.  Not to mention all of our own carbon dioxide we are breathing in with it. 

Ultimately, this only becomes a problem if we see the general public consistently social distance so well for so long that not only do they not transmit COVID, they generally don't transmit viruses or bacteria period.

I'm not dismissing it out of hand, but we should wait until there's a realistic chance of a problem before we start letting it change how we want people to behave today.

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10 hours ago, theJ said:

Definitely agree with some of those points. There are better ways to deal with some of this. 

I guess see my post above to understand where I'm at with all this. We should be considering both economics and safety in all this. They're both important. 

I don’t disagree that both are important.

I also know that in any safety sensitive industry death actually has a cost benefit analysis. In industrial applications if you can’t mitigate risk to a certain, acceptable level then that industrial product, activity isn’t pursued. In fact Governments get involved mandating safety standards or outlawing the practice. Numerous products have been banned because of risk.

So, what are the safety standards for covid 19? What are acceptable death rates? What are the penalties to companies that fail to maintain operations within acceptable standards?

In most industrialized countries corporations can be fined, executives charged with negligence etc. if companies fail to keep employees safe. Unfortunately risk mitigation is much easier in a corporate environment where a company can dictate safety practices and dismiss employees who fail to follow safety practices.

With covid 19 we don’t see any standards, legislated safety practices etc. It’s basically a free for all with national, regional and local governments following piece meal approaches and some jurisdictions doing nothing. In each area that has opened without set policies that are enforced, cases are skyrocketing as are hospitalization rates. It’s absolutely ridiculous right now with the amount of individuals and government agencies that are totally disregarding safety practices. What makes it truly unfortunate is the lack or delay in taking actions dramatically increases lives lost, economic impact, and really extends the impact of the virus.

Florida is a great example. Not only are cases skyrocketing locally but given the tourist economy individuals are infected then returning home to infect individuals in their local communities.

Nevada which did a pretty good job initially opened hotels and casinos June 4th. The last number of days they’ve set records for total number of cases. Yesterday the Sahara announced 6 employees had tested positive, a strip restaurant had to shut down, again, because of infections. You see lineups with people not wearing masks. It’s not hard to see that there are problems on the horizon, especially in Las Vegas and the crowds haven’t even returned.  I think most of it could’ve been avoided simply be mandating masks indoors. Of course to many people balk at any kind of safety measures that interfere with their freedoms.

I don’t have the answers but I do know that without serious mitigation the end result will be a destroyed economy and unacceptable death levels.

We also have to acknowledge there’s still a great deal unknown. In Canada we are seeing large numbers of 20-30 year olds coming down with the virus. We see lots of individuals who recover only to have an onset of heart issues, kidney issues, permanent respiratory issues etc. No one seems to be focused on these underlying stats. Instead focusing on infection and death rates. Whatever happened to the virus naturally disappearing with the heat and humidity of summer? Texas, Arizona, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Nevada are all in the heat and all have increasing numbers, many setting daily records.

You we’re talking about industrial safety. Products, processes etc. don’t just get released on the public. They are subjected to rigorous testing. Following these processes they can accurately measure the risk and assess impacts to public and employees.

Thats how I perceive staged openings, except in real time. At each stage they are able to conduct analysis, determine impact and either add mitigation, proceed to the next stage, or step back. It’s all of course complicated by the yahoos that won’t follow any recommended safety protocols.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Ultimately, this only becomes a problem if we see the general public consistently social distance so well for so long that not only do they not transmit COVID, they generally don't transmit viruses or bacteria period.

I'm not dismissing it out of hand, but we should wait until there's a realistic chance of a problem before we start letting it change how we want people to behave today.

I will say to this effect: my kids haven't had even a runny nose for 3 months now. That has never happened before.

So yeah, we've also slowed transmission of other viruses and crap. But yeah, nothing to worry about quite yet. 

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2 hours ago, theJ said:

First Sunday my church is meeting in person (outdoors only). This should be interesting. 

Good luck. We’re still working on the logistics with ours. We have been streaming online and still want to continue to do that when we eventually meet again.

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it will be interesting to see impact on mortality rate over the next week. Cases started to plateau about a month ago and mortality has continued to decline. But the real spike in overall cases began about 10 days ago. However there are some reports and indications that the spike may predominantly be in younger populations who are returning to normal life more quickly and therefore the death rate may not go up significantly. We shall see. I am mainly worried about Florida and Arizona given the elderly populations, it is hard to completely isolate.

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