Xenos Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 4 hours ago, WizeGuy said: Are there any studies regarding socially distancing indoors and not wearing a mask? I thought the CDC said to wear a mask when you can't socially distance, so that's how I've been going about my life, but if I'm indoors say at my dad's house and we can keep at least 6 ft of distance I usually take my mask off. I could be wrong but I believe the six feet thing doesn’t work as well indoors with longer durations. For example, if you’re in an office with someone all day but they are more than six feet away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Can you post this on a log/log scale? MoL is a measure of acceleration (I assume), so that chart would be more revealing. The low gross numbers are obviously swamped by the scale but likely reflect higher acceleration. It's also backwards looking. I feel like you're arguing against math here lol. I'll send you a PM with the data, and you can mess with it how you want. But given that they're setting tiers based solely on the raw number, I don't taking it any other way than exactly how they presented it for three months straight is anything close to genuine. They literally presented Texas, as recently as their last listing on Friday, as "New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Can you post this on a log/log scale? MoL is a measure of acceleration (I assume), so that chart would be more revealing. The low gross numbers are obviously swamped by the scale but likely reflect higher acceleration. It's also backwards looking. I feel like you're arguing against math here lol. If it were a chart of acceleration then why does it decrease as cases accelerate higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 5 hours ago, animaltested said: Most of Europe, Asia, and Oceania did not let politics get in the way of sensible pandemic planning, guidelines, and actions. Don't throw humans under the bus for the collective cognitive decline of the US. Would be a good argument... If that were the only reason humans are pathetic. Unfortunately, it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 1 hour ago, pwny said: Uhhhhhhhhh That’s with Children’s Hospital using ICU capacity for adults. It’s about to get really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, pwny said: I'll send you a PM with the data, and you can mess with it how you want. But given that they're setting tiers based solely on the raw number, I don't taking it any other way than exactly how they presented it for three months straight is anything close to genuine. They literally presented Texas, as recently as their last listing on Friday, as "New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1" Here's just a quick graph comparing MOL to 'change' (where change is simply the current "new cases" divided by the average of the new cases of the previous 7 days) i.e. how quickly it's spreading: It appears that the basis of MoL is just that: the rapidity of which it is spreading. Not the gross number of cases. I feel like this was the understanding - at least it was mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 (edited) Considering that states aren't going to get federal funding for testing after June 30th in hotspots, the MoL has a ticking clock on it anyway. And Nero fiddled... Edited June 24, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: And Nero fiddled... ^^^^^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Here's just a quick graph comparing MOL to 'change' (where change is simply the current "new cases" divided by the average of the new cases of the previous 7 days) i.e. how quickly it's spreading: It appears that the basis of MoL is just that: the rapidity of which it is spreading. Not the gross number of cases. I feel like this was the understanding - at least it was mine. Sure, that all seems reasonable, and given they called it a trailing average, that's pretty obvious. My issue is that they're presenting the growth as a 10, and then doubling down by saying that the state is in a tier where everything is going to plan, when quite clearly that's not what the data is saying at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 1 minute ago, pwny said: Sure, that all seems reasonable, and given they called it a trailing average, that's pretty obvious. My issue is that they're presenting the growth as a 10, and then doubling down by saying that the state is in a tier where everything is going to plan, when quite clearly that's not what the data is saying at all. probably could be improved by adding another temporal element where static behavior is judged as "going to plan" once gross cases are below a certain threshold. But if the "plan" is to prevent rapid growth (and one can argue this is/was the plan) - the data supports that. If the "plan" is to reduce growth, things aren't going to plan in Texas currently. For about a month they were reducing growth speed, then they flatlined and now are hitting an uptick again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 (edited) No mater the metric things are not going well in Texas. Edited June 24, 2020 by diehardlionfan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: No mater the metric things are not going well in Texas. Is it all of Texas or just a few select areas? Texas is a pretty big place, I don't think it's fair to hammer the state because Houston is a disaster. That was a serious question btw I haven't really been paying attention so I have no idea if it's just Houston or everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: Is it all of Texas or just a few select areas? Texas is a pretty big place, I don't think it's fair to hammer the state because Houston is a disaster. That was a serious question btw I haven't really been paying attention so I have no idea if it's just Houston or everywhere. It’s a fair point. I always just refer to the state. I think Houston is in the worst predicament. Here’s the break down by county. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 29 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: It’s a fair point. I always just refer to the state. I think Houston is in the worst predicament. Here’s the break down by county. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/ Seems pretty isolated to the major metro areas which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Hey why is all the focus on Texas when California is doing just as bad? (According to that worlometers site) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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