JDBrocks Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 I think what’s missing here is the positivity rate. If the positivity rate was static while cases increased it seems that you can reasonably assume that it’s just increased testing. When positivity rate increases with actual cases, then the disease is spreading, like FL/TX/AZ. positivity rate over time, by state: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: Hey why is all the focus on Texas when California is doing just as bad? (According to that worlometers site) Houston media/twitter has made statements about them being near and rapidly approaching ICU capacity. I’m not sure if California is in such a rough spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: Houston media/twitter has made statements about them being near and rapidly approaching ICU capacity. I’m not sure if California is in such a rough spot. Would make sense for California to have higher ICU capacity given their higher population I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: Would make sense for California to have higher ICU capacity given their higher population I guess I mean, Houston is the 4th biggest city in the county. I’m guessing they have a lot of beds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I mean, Houston is the 4th biggest city in the county. I’m guessing they have a lot of beds. Then what is it? Harris county has just over 25,000 confirmed cases according to worldometers, Los Angeles county has nearly 90,000 Seems odd that Houston would be struggling with ICU capacity but L.A isn't? To put it in perspective, according to worldometers L.A county has more active cases than the entire state of Texas. Edited June 25, 2020 by rob_shadows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 2 hours ago, pwny said: I'll send you a PM with the data, and you can mess with it how you want. But given that they're setting tiers based solely on the raw number, I don't taking it any other way than exactly how they presented it for three months straight is anything close to genuine. They literally presented Texas, as recently as their last listing on Friday, as "New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1" I agree that they could have done a better job presenting the state data. It seems like all they were doing was crunching the numbers and putting them in order of the MOL. Tiers were based on pure number. They didn't really analyze those numbers like they did the country numbers (like how some high numbers were sometimes in tier 1 and low numbers in tier 2/3). But in terms of the formula, like @incognito_man so eloquently said, you're just arguing against math. I feel like they got a little lazy with it toward the end there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: Then what is it? Harris county has just over 25,000 confirmed cases according to worldometers, Los Angeles county has nearly 90,000 Seems odd that Houston would be struggling with ICU capacity but L.A isn't? To put it in perspective, according to worldometers L.A county has more active cases than the entire state of Texas. 70% are non covid patients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 minute ago, theJ said: But in terms of the formula, like @incognito_man so eloquently said, you're just arguing against math. I never argued that a formula was bad. I argued that the way they presented whatever numbers they had was garbage. And it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Just now, vikesfan89 said: 70% are non covid patients. And L.A doesn't have a lot of non Covid ICU patients? It just doesn't make sense any way you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-icu-bed-capacity-modeling/ According to this they are using 362 icu beds due to covid but have a plan for 373 more fur a sustainable surge. It looks like they expect to get to the unsustainable surge in late July. I'm probably not understanding this right but it looks like they can double the capacity of what they are using fairly easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: And L.A doesn't have a lot of non Covid ICU patients? It just doesn't make sense any way you look at it. I have no idea. It does seem like it would take more than 368 extra patients to be at 97% capacity but I've never looked at how many icu beds hospitals have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 hour ago, rob_shadows said: Then what is it? Harris county has just over 25,000 confirmed cases according to worldometers, Los Angeles county has nearly 90,000 Seems odd that Houston would be struggling with ICU capacity but L.A isn't? To put it in perspective, according to worldometers L.A county has more active cases than the entire state of Texas. CA had more cases but the positivity and hospitalization rate is currently stable compared to Texas. Why things are the way they are is certainly puzzling in a good way for LA County and CA in general. Maybe people are testing positive but not getting as sick due to the mask mandate that existed well before the state one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 hour ago, pwny said: I never argued that a formula was bad. I argued that the way they presented whatever numbers they had was garbage. And it is. Yeah agreed. There were better ways to present it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 (edited) People are knocking Texas, because they made a mockery of science. California for the most part is at least encouraging wearing a mask and social distancing. Florida and Texas are run by Rudolph’s who decided that science is fake and COVID is no big deal. They deserve the crap they’ll get. Edited June 25, 2020 by MookieMonstah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Man, are we seriously stopping federal funding for testing when this month ends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts